Upstate Poltical Report

Timothy Stampfler to Challange Matt Doheny for NY-23 Republican Primary

2011-12-21T21:04:00.000-08:00

Another bumpy ride ahead in NY-23? Watertown Daily Times reports that Timothy Stampfler will be challenging Matt Doheny for the Republican nomination in 2012.

Timothy Stampfler is a corrections officer in Dannemora, the paper reports.

Mr. Stampfler has not responded to my requests for comment, but I spoke with Don Lee, the Clinton County GOP chair, two days ago. Mr. Lee told me that Mr. Stampfler had previously spoken to him about a run, but at the time, Mr. Stampfler had not made up his mind.

This complicates much for Matt Doheny, who is already looking at another possible two challengers in Doug Hoffman and possibly Kellie Greene. I'll have more on Stampfler in follow up posts, once I have a change to look more into his candidacy.

Of course, redistricting may drastically change the map for NY-23.One thing is for sure, the more the committee chairmen in NY-23 like a candidate, the more resistance that candidate seems to attract from the party's base. Republicans may want to take notice.

Will NY-25's Brianne Murphy be Against Wall Street After She was for It?

2011-12-14T03:52:00.000-08:00

Generally speaking, Democrat politicians are a walking contradiction. Wall Street is the latest example. Where many progressives and liberals have taken to deriding Wall Street and fat cat bankers, most congressional Democrats are counting on money from wealthy Wall Street donors.

This bring me to Brianne Murphy, Democrat hopeful for NY-25. Where Democrat Dan Maffei's campaign strategy is to claim he's moderate and hope voters forget that he voted down the line for health care (public option included), cap and trade and the stimulus, Brianne Murphy hopes to occupy the extreme left.

So, with OWS and other anti-business rhetoric becoming the norm for far left politicians I'm wondering if it is only a matter of time before Murphy flip flops. Until she started running for congress, she was for Wall Street. Her Linked In profile says so:

The Murphy Group LLC is a full-service legislative and legal consulting firm with offices in Washington, DC and New York, NY, providing domestic and international clients with distinct perspective and creative counsel.

Our diverse team of outstanding government affairs and legal professionals provide clients with comprehensive solutions for their legal, government and public affairs needs. Each of our consultants brings a unique subject matter expertise coupled with broad legal, legislative or media affairs experience. This comprehensive approach – strategically addressing the political, legal, and media implications of each client objective – distinguishes Murphy Group. The firm’s advocacy skills are unrivaled, providing clients invaluable assistance on Capitol Hill and in the courtroom.

Whether you are a Wall Street Firm looking for a finger on the pulse of Capitol Hill or an attorney representing a party to an agency accident investigation seeking advice on the process, Murphy Group is well positioned to meet your needs. Our team brings a wealth of substantive knowledge on cutting edge legislative developments as well as a deep understanding of the litigation, regulatory and investigative processes. Our blend of experience and extensive network make us an essential resource for anyone seeking the most up-to-date information and analysis regarding developments impacting their clients.
Specialties

Legislative & Legal Consulting, issue areas include transportation, energy & the environment, labor & employment, and education.

I have yet to see an article reporting an anti-Wall Street positions as of yet, but it's only a matter of time. After all, her entire party is planning on running against Wall Street. It's only a matter of time before Murphy was for Wall Street before she was against it.

Bob Turner's Stance on Medicare Posses a Problem in Run for NY-9?

2011-08-14T11:28:00.000-07:00

Democrat David Weprin's campaign has signaled that it is going to begin a strategy of mediscare. Today, his campaign released the following statement against Bob Turner's views on Medicare:

A news release out last night was titled, “Does Bob Turner plan to cut Medicare for the next generation or is he lying to voters?” and describes a group of seniors approaching Turner at a fundraiser last night and asking if he supported Paul Ryan’s plan to end Medicare.

“Nothing will change for people over 55,” Turner is said to have responded.

Per the release: ”He purposefully neglected any comment about the security of Medicare for the next generation.”

“Bob Turner continues to try to hedge his position on Medicare, but he can’t have it both ways,” said Elizabeth Kerr, Weprin’s spokeswoman. “Bob Turner either has to support asking millionaires and Big Oil to pay their fair share, or he has to admit he plans to cut Medicare.”

Will it work? We'll see. However, it has signaled two very important nuances to the race.

First of all, David Weprin is now elevating Bob Turner and recognizing him as a threat to his race. That's a significant development and a recognition on Weprin's part, that he is vulnerable in the race.

Second, Weprin's response means that we are going to get a full vetting of the messages the Parties hoped to run in 2012. Since NY-26, Democrats have hung their hats on the idea that Mediscare is going to be effective in retaking the House in 2012. Weprin hopes to right his sinking ship on this message. If it proves unfruitful, in a highly liberal district and fails to eclipse Bob Turner's message of "NY-9 as a referendum on Obama foreign policy", you can be sure that Mediscare won't work in 2012.

If not mediscare, if not the deficit, it is a real mystery as to what Democrats will run on; certainly not on any accomplishments.

Obama NY Fundraiser: the day the messiah compared himself to Cuomo and King

2011-08-12T19:21:00.000-07:00

Obama's numbers are in the red in NY, but that's not half as interesting as how desperate and lost the President appeared at his own fundraiser.

Today, Obama flew out to NY for yet another fundraiser. Despite being amongst the most liberal of supporters, Obama tried hard to lift his own image in parity with others:

Standing in Weinstein’s basement, Obama said his troubles are like the ones facing Cuomo.

“When I ran in 2008, I think that a lot of folks believed we elect Obama and suddenly we’re going to fix politics in Washington,” Obama said. “And Andrew is familiar with this, because everybody figures, well, we’re going to fix politics in Albany.”

“And then it turns out that there are a lot of bad habits that have been built up over time, and we’re also a big, diverse country and not everybody agrees with me; not everybody agrees with the folks who live in Manhattan,” he said, drawing laughter from the rich celebrities that filled the room. “West of here,” he said. “You guys may not be familiar with it.”

The comparison was something of a stretch. Obama is struggling to recharge the national economy amid an increasingly deadlocked capitol split along party lines, while Cuomo, for his part, isn’t struggling much.

He passed a budget without raising taxes or destroying social service programs, and passed a landmark bill legalizing same-sex marriage, turning the state government in Albany from “dysfunctional” to hyperactive, in under seven months. (Cuomo attended the fundraiser as an invited guest, and did not pay, according to a source.)

Before leaving, Obama likened himself to one more figure. Martin Luther King, Jr.

“I think that we forget when he was alive there was nobody who was more vilified, nobody who was more controversial, nobody who was more despairing at times,” he said.

http://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif
In 2008, Obama was stopping the rising tides and healing the planet. Hehttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gif basked in messiah comparisons. Flash forward to 2011 and Obama is hoping people mistake him for Martin Luther King Jr. or even just Cuomo. Unable to sell himself as himself, he's trying to sell himself as other people and doing a bad job of it if the tone of the Observer is any indication.

Completely gone is the once seemingly impenetrable brand and image of the Obama of 2008. Now the President of the United States highest aims are to somehow elevate himself to the level of a freshman governor.

Update:

A memeorandum thread!

Welcome Legal Insurrection readers and thanks for linking Professor!

Chucky Schumer and “foot in mouth disease”

2011-04-06T14:59:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

Originally posted to Liberty Ink Journal and RedState

Chucky has an easy — and most importantly, GUARANTEED — job. As of 2009, he fully became the Senior US Senator from New York. Oh yes, he had that title since 2001, but let’s face it, it was in name only. He was lost in Hillary’s shadow after she parachuted in from Arkansas by way of DC. In 2009 she finally stopped pretending to represent New York (a mere intended stepping stone to the presidency) and moved over to the State Department. Her political future has been utterly ruined by being part of the Obama Regime. But, she was replaced by someone who can stand in Chucky’s shadow and serve as his “extra vote” 95% of the time. (On the rare occasions when Chucky’s rubber stamp wants to show “independence,” she gets into that very narrow place on the ideological spectrum —- to the left of him.)

Chucky is still learning the ropes of what it’s like to be a Senior Senator. So, don’t blame him when his mouth, uh, gets the better of him. Afterall, with all of the money Obama is wasting, the United States can evidently only afford ONE teleprompter — and that goes to the empty suit at the top. (Hmm, maybe a non-government grant could be found to buy Chucky a teleprompter to keep him out of trouble? I mean, this USUALLY works for Obama, so we’ve got some data to justify the feasibility.) Anyway, Chucky hardly needs a teleprompter. His constituents are in ultra leftist New York. He just won by a landslide in 2010 so he doesn’t have to worry about another election until 2016. But even so, he’s got that magic “D” after his name. He’d win again no matter what. A majority in New York would vote for a cartoon character if it had a “D” after its name. (And considering how overhyped Obama was…)

So, anyway, after a couple of humorous paragraphs, let’s get to the main point of this post. First, Chucky ran his foul mouth on a plane, rudely insulting a flight attendant because she asked an elitist such as him to abide by the rules. These rules should only apply to the American commoners who are beneath him. Then, on national television, he flubbed up the three branches of government. But now he admits he lets others do his thinking for him. Rather than have little snafus like this, can’t the Democrats buy him a teleprompter? Look, as one who doesn’t exactly agree with the Democrats’ plans, far be it for me to give advice here to help them. But really, Democrats at least ought to make sure the reporters aren’t on the line when they say stuff like that! Just a word of advice here.

One of my favorite lines in the article is: “After apparently realizing his mistake, Schumer fell silent.” Um, what? Schumer fell silent? That’s utterly amazing. I’ve never heard of anything that could quiet Chucky!

Chucky and his big government buddies want to continue spending like there is no tomorrow. Any attempt to put the brakes on runaway government waste is called “extreme” (though remember, if a conservative uses that word to describe what Chucky and his ilk do, it’s apparently “wrong”). They have no concern about enslaving several generations into the future with debt. As the article notes, the other Democrat Senators on the call marched to Chucky’s orders (like leftist zombies).

At some point, it’s going to be time to pay the piper. We cannot continue to spend money and mortgage future generations for the unsaitiable appetites of the present generation. We hear all about how the answer is merely to “tax the rich” while Obama hangs out with all the globalist corporate elite and hands out appointments to the likes of GE’s Jeffrey Immelt. Ah, but Chucky has no need to concern himself with what will happen to future generations. He gets elected in New York…..a state addicted to big government, despite having accidentally elected a Democrat governor who seems to “see the light” about runaway spending. (Or, he at least realizes that if he cleans up New York, he would be formidable in any future presidential election.) Basically, if Chucky is going to call the Republicans extreme for trying to clean up DC, he’s also calling Andrew Cuomo “extreme” for cleaning up the disgusting mess that is New York State.

But I digress. Chucky is useful for something. As one who is guaranteed reelection because he is an incumbent in a state that will vote for anything with a “D” after its name, he gives us a window into the elitist politician’s mindset. Whether it is true contempt for working people like flight attendants, or lack of interest in knowing what is in the Constitution, or considering fiscal responsibility to be “extreme,” at least we have someone like Schumer to use as a barometer of where the elite are coming from.

Weiner Wants a Waiver for the Woefully Worthless ObamaCare

2011-04-06T14:55:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

Originally posted to Liberty Ink Journal and RedState

Agree or disagree with her views, you must admit Michelle Malkin has a way with words. And her column about the obnoxious and extreme liberal Anthony Weiner and his desire for an ObamaCare waiver is a good example.

First, Obama exempted his big union fatcats and their thugs who do things like damage public property funded by taxpayers in places like, oh, I don’t know, Madison, Wisconsin. Then he started exempting the supposed enemies of the unions, selected big corporations. Well, why not? Like union fatcats, big CEOs such as GE’s Jeffrey Immelt are Obama’s buddies too. (Shh, don’t tell the left. They claim the Democrat Party is here to “protect” us from all those big corporate CEOs. Heck, it’s not like the top elected official in the Democrat Party isn’t buddy buddy with them.) Then Maine insurers get exemptions from certain provisions of this massive boondoggle. Nevada and Kentucky line up behind Maine, along with a bunch of other states.

But now Anthony Weiner, ObamaCare champion, wants a waiver for his beloved New York City. New York City is a heavy voting bloc for Democrats. This would be the LAST place that should want or deserves to get any kind of waiver from ObamaCare. They made their bed and all that.

Look, we heard impassioned speeches on the House floor about how wonderful this thing is, and villifying anyone (Republican politician or ordinary American) who dared speak against the Democrat will. The speechifying finished with the now shellacked EX Speaker Nancy Pelosi saying “Vote my darlings, vote.” The Democrats chose to ram this mess through on a party line vote without taking the time to hash it out and make sure the provisions were right for people. It seems like a show of lack of confidence in their work to be handing out waivers like candy at a parade (and what would Michelle Obama, self-appointed czar of “healthy eating” while simultaneously being a fan of barbecue and ribs, think of that??).

The leftist leaning Media Matters tried to do damage control for the Democrats by claiming Weiner merely said the ability to grant waivers shows it’s “flexibility.” Actually, it just proves further that this is indeed government control over our health care. Bottom line is that it is an opportunity for the powerful to scratch the backs of their powerful. What is the process for getting a waiver? Who must one know to get a waiver? How much campaign cash must be given to Democrat politicians to get a waiver? How can I get a waiver? How can you get a waiver? Can’t we all just get waivers if we want them? Should the law have any meaning or can various well connected groups get a “get out of jail free” card like in the game of Monopoly (Obama edition, of course)? Do we get to collect $200 as we pass “Go” and have the government take it all away from us? Oh wait, the system Obama is pushing on us is like all of us being perpetually stuck on Boardwalk with a government owned hotel on it.

The Democrats wanted a one size fits all “solution.” THE LAW IS THE LAW. There should be no exemptions, PERIOD. If this inconveniences unions or causes big corporations to shed more employees, so be it. This is what the Democrats wanted, this is what they wasted so much energy, time, and money cheerleading for, not to mention destroyed their political careers for in some cases, and they should deal with the consequences like responsible people. (Wait, I’m talking about entrenched elitist politicians. Responsibility doesn’t enter into the equation there.) There should be NO backroom deals to cover up the disastrous effects of ObamaCare. If jobs are lost or union workers have to pay more as a result of ObamaCare, well, that’s “change we can believe in,” just in time for Obama’s hopefully failing bid for a second term.

By the time this thing is done, it will look like virtual swiss cheese. We’ve heard the “You might be a if…” jokes. Well, let’s hear everyone’s ideas for “You might get an ObamaCare waiver if…” Oh and just to clear it up, no government funding for this. All responses must be the work of the writer’s own mind. No outsourcing of thinking to some government commission or committee (and heck, one probably already exists for this sort of thing), please…

But I digress. On another note, couldn’t Weiner have wanted a waiver in Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming, or better yet, in Walla Walla, Washington? Certainly, conservative bloggers could have had even more fun with blog titles for that!

Albany's Rally for Collectivism

2011-02-28T14:51:00.000-08:00

by Bill Claydon

In the Capital Region of New York, one of the biggest “industries” is government of one form or another. The state is in a fiscal crisis due to decades of nearly limitless spending with no concern for the future. This is a state that would likely give a majority vote to a cartoon character for any statewide office if it had a “D” after its name.

As then candidate Andrew Cuomo said, during the 2010 New York Gubernatorial Candidate Comedy Variety Act Starring Jimmy McMillan and Friends, aka the 2010 New York State Gubernatorial “Debate,” young people leave New York because there is no opportunity. A bloated government which wastes money like it’s going out of style will do that kind of thing. Young people who have nothing holding them to New York leave (they can always visit relatives who are “stuck” here because nobody wants to buy their home on a postage stamp sized lot with $4,000+ in taxes to fund the never satisfied appetite of government). The same is true of the “evil rich” who are in a position to easily get out even if it means taking a substantial loss on their property. Big government supporters never seem to quite get this. There aren’t enough private sector jobs and let’s face it, the government can’t just hire everyone. Despite the easy availability of welfare in New York, some people actually want something more meaningful than that kind of big government enforced hopelessness.

So, when Van Jones had an “emergency” rally (great marketing for everything Van Jones) bringing all the various ultra leftwing groups together doing the best they could do short of building a time machine and taking everyone back to Woodstock, OF COURSE Albany, NY would have a large showing. Liberals cheered as if this is some sort of show of “strength” for collectivist unions. Look, the Capital District is home to gargantuan government that is deep in debt due to decades of wreckless spending. Is it any surprise there would be a huge turnout for this? Some have also pointed out that unionized college professors are getting students interested in supporting unions. If you stand outside in a rain storm, you get wet. And Obama is an “eloquent speaker” if it’s all laid out for him on his teleprompter. He’ll read whatever is there, complete with the dramatic pauses he has perfected oh so well. Do we celebrate the obvious? OF COURSE leftist college professors would promote collectivist unions to students when they’re typically fed all sorts of propaganda about other causes that run the gamut of leftwing activism. Par for the course. This is status quo, hardly anything surprising. Of course, as unions and their collectivist bargaining basically reward mediocrity and status quo the same way they do hard workers (with piddling and pathetic raises spread across the board for everyone), I suppose it’s no surprise that union supporters cheer the obvious.

So, while there may have been a decent number in a state with one of the largest state governments in the country, the numbers were limited elsewhere, according to reports.

I understand that in changing times, liberals want their outdated causes to continue to seem relevant. Unfortunately for them, we are starting to realize the tremendous costs of their whims. People are deciding they do not feel like continuing on this unsustainable path and subjecting themselves and their great grandchildren (the ones not brutally aborted, that is) to unending debt. People do not have the money to support big six figure salary union fatcats who forcibly take money from workers and use it to create multimillion dollar commercials or send it to the Democrat party. Likewise, people will have to closely examine the high costs of other liberal boondoggles.

We are in the midst of a shifting of historical eras. The failed policies of the past simply won’t be able to be sustained, now matter how many teeth are gnashed. The big UAW union got its bailout courtesy the taxpayers. Government employees were “stimulated” for a time, but that (failed) “stimulus” was not going to last forever. People cannot continue to pay for even more public debt. The gravy train is coming to an end.

Ultimately, the more the unions keep this in the news, the more opportunity they give conservative groups to educate people on the many problems associated with collectivist unions, and their ties to the Democrat party. We have needed this conversation for decades. May the next big “sacred cow” liberal institution shine a spotlight on itself as much as the big unions have done. We’ll need a national conversation about that one too.

FAILED "stimulus" anniversary

2011-02-17T16:06:00.000-08:00

by Bill Claydon

Today marks the second anniversary of the failed Obama (or maybe Pelosi?) “stimulus.” No sooner did Obama get nearly coronated after winning what was largely the equivalent of a national popularity or prom king election (complete with near expressionless zombies chanting “Yes we can”) then he started hawking a gargantuan “stimulus.”

Obama wore the hat of “salesman in chief” well while people were still virtually drunk on the hope and change nonsense after his near coronation. But as time went on, he simply became a less charming version of the fictional character Mr. Haney from the 1960s show Green Acres. In fact, looking at Mr. Haney’s Wikipedia entry, I found this quote to be so perfect in describing what Obama tries to sell us:

He often took a piece of junk and called it by some outlandish name, suggesting that it has some use that it clearly does not and that it’s in some way valuable.

We were told that unemployment would go above 8% if we didn’t pass the stimulus IMMEDIATELY! Of course unemployment is hovering around 10% and underemployment is hovering at 20%. But it was so important to pass this thing that nobody in Congress had enough time to fully digest it. In fact, when Obama campaigned, he said that bills would wait for five days until he signed them into law. He broke that promise in just about a month after his near coronation. And despite our nation being in a severe economic crisis, Obama took the liberty of ordering that his taxpayer funded personal private jet be flown to Colorado, dumping untold amounts of carbon into the environment, for an unnecessary signing ceremony. (Cue the kneejerk “What about Bush?” comment. Answer: Obama was supposed to be better than Bush since he campaigned that way against term limited Bush. Further, Bush did not lecture the American people about carbon and global warming/climate change/liberal term du jour. But if it makes you feel better, you can blame Bush for Obama wasting taxpayer money and spewing carbon for his unnecessary Colorado signing ceremony.)

I know some on the left will come up with vague and unprovable figures, saying “If we did not have the stimulus, it would have been worse.” Heck, why not just suggest something equally absurd: “If we did not have the stimulus, the moon would fall into the earth” or something. I mean really, if we want to do the chicken-little-the-sky-is-falling thing, let’s at least be creative with it. Speaking of creativity, HOW many jobs were “saved or created,” including all those short term census jobs that happened as a result of a Constitutionally mandated project every decade since 1790?

Despite the FAILED stimulus shackling future generations (the ones actually not aborted — likely at taxpayer expense that is) to debt to pay off Democrat political interests, it had some interesting side notes. First, party identity challenged FORMER US Senator from Pennsylvania, “Benedict” Arlen Specter (who flipped from D to R and then back to D at the end) voted for this boondoggle. As did the two RINOs from Maine. Without their help, the “Stimulus” never would have been an excuse for Obama’s expensive signing ceremony in Colorado. After criticism, “Benedict” Arlen flip flopped back to his original party and the party that basically represents his voting habits. He knew he couldn’t win a Republican primary after that. (He then was primaried out by another member of the Democrat party, which was perfect.) On the House side, the now shellacked Pelosi wielded her majority to ram this thing through.

But the drama surrounding the votes wasn’t even the most entertaining point. What was really fun were all the phantom congressional districts that supposedly got “stimulus” money. This after a multimillion dollar taxpayer funded project to construct a database to let taxpayers know where their future generations’ money was being wasted, um, I mean, spent. Districts like New Hampshire’s 00th or Arizona’s 84th supposedly received “stimulus” money and/or “saved or created” jobs. Hey, could someone tell me who won the 2010 congressional races in those and all the other phantom districts?

Then we had the millions of dollars of large and expensive signs built which announced that a routine paving project was paid for with “stimulus” (or rather, the lengthy outlandish name they called it) money. Hey why not spend it? It’s not like it was coming from the politicians personally….it’s debt on the shoulders of future generations. Waste, baby waste! I’m not sure if they thought this would garner political points for the 2010 elections, but ultimately it just created a lot of negative publicity.

After having just supported and voted for TARP, Obama turned right around and demanded another 700 billion from future Americans. Enough was enough with DC’s big spending ways and this was not the “hope and change” promised. So, while the tea was brewing with TARP, the whistle on the kettle blew when it came to the FAILED “stimulus.”

Make no mistake. The “stimulus” and ObamaCare were two huge factors in the gigantic shellacking Pelosi received and the reduction in Democrat Senate seats. Outside of solidly Democrat New York, many Democrat held governor seats flipped to Republican. Others in Congress saw the shellacking coming and suddenly remembered after all these years that they had a family and needed to spend time with them.

Had the “stimulus” actually worked, we’d see unemployment at or below 8% like Obama read from his teleprompter. The tea party may have dried up. People would not continue to be losing their homes as much. There wouldn’t be talk about extending unemployment indefinitely. There would be REAL hope. And let’s face it: Pelosi would still be Speaker and people like Andrew Cuomo would not have to at least talk tough. Chris Christie wouldn’t even get a political footnote as he would have been soundly defeated by Jon Corzine. Yes those things are fun to watch, but too bad our power hungry ruling class had to enslave future generations so much to get us there.

Happy anniversary, Obama/Pelosi FAILED “stimulus.”

Jimmy McMillan for President??!!??

2011-02-11T22:18:00.001-08:00

by Bill Claydon

Sales of CDs and Jimmy “Rent is too damn high” McMillan dolls must be down. Despite being someone who simply cannot even be classified on the ideological spectrum, he has resurfaced at CPAC! And better yet, he wants to run for president as a Republican! What? Is the “Rent is 2 damn high” party (of one) not big enough for national politics?

As an entertainer whose faux NY gubernatorial campaign focused on one issue — that rent is “too damn high” — he hasn’t really articulated himself on other, more pressing issues. Until now. He has announced (drumroll please) that the DEFICIT is too damn high! I’m not sure there is anyone who can disagree with that.

Fun and games aside, he does make a good point. The youth are strapped down due to the shortsightedness and big spending ways of previous generations. Young people of today and future generations will be forced to pay for the lack of vision espoused by the previous generations who have grown government far beyond its Constitutional limitations. This goes for both major parties. We are simply on an unsustainable path and no amount of whining from big government cheerleaders representing the failed policies of the past is going to change that. The status quo cannot be maintained and we are facing a reckoning.

However, such a reckoning, while upsetting in the short term, is very necessary to bring this nation back to its Constitutional parameters. We have drifted morally and in terms of abiding by the Constitution. The out of control spending by the current and previous presidential administrations just hastened what would have probably come a couple of decades later. Had the tremendous waste merely increased at a slower rate, we would have continued to drift. Things were not right under the Bush years (or those of the last several presidential administrations) and have simply declined faster under Obama. We needed that faster downward spiral to create a wake up call.

The Founders instructed that ordinary people must pay attention to what is happening in government. Most ordinary people were “asleep.” The wake up call has finally begun to get people away from their distractions and more involved. Everything must be examined, considered, and tested as to its constitutionality. And no, the “general welfare” phrase (or as some ignorant types have called it the “good and welfare clause”) in the Constitution is not a catchall for every single big government whim that can be dreamed up so as to further enslave future generations with debt.

These are indeed exciting times and I for one am quite glad this reckoning is happening sooner rather than later. We were on the wrong path….and it will take decades to correct the mess that much of the 20th century created. It's better to get started now than to put off the necessary clean up job.

Andrew Cuomo vs. the special interests

2011-02-04T13:47:00.000-08:00

by Bill Claydon

I didn't vote for Andrew Cuomo, but it was a foregone conclusion he was going to win. While there are many positions he has with which I disagree, I must say that I find his economic statements to be interesting. If he means what he says, all I can say is that the special interests are really in a pickle. This is going to be a prize fight to watch, but the stakes are even higher with Cuomo being a Democrat and basically the "figurehead" of New York Democrats. But hey, disgraced ex-NY governor Eliot "the Steamroller" Spitzer told us during the election that Andrew Cuomo has brass knuckles. (Oh and it should be mentioned that Spitzer made this announcement just as his CNN show was about to be launched. A nice contrived political firestorm is always good for ratings.) I'm going to enjoy watching this as a conservative.

Cuomo has already announced that the overly expensive sob story propaganda ads on television put out by the big unions will not deter him. Whenever there is talk about a cut in one program or another, suddenly these ads pop up on television. Gosh, they are expensive. One would think if the various special interests have all this spare money floating around to run television ads, they could just roll that back into the programs near and dear to their hearts.

It almost would have been better for the special interests if Carl Paladino had won. They could have a free for all running numerous ads vilifying him, calling him the scourge of the earth, making him into their virtual punching bag, complaining about Republicans, etc. They could have raised tremendous sums in donations from people just by bandying about Paladino's name. They could have had a field day with a Paladino governorship. Had it been a narrow victory, he would have been a great boogeyman for them.

But, wait, what's this? A liberal Democrat is in office now, a member of New York's political dynasty (his father Mario Cuomo was a three term ultra leftist governor) no less, and he is claiming he is NOT going to play ball with, or be a puppet of, the special interests? How dare he!! For too long, Democrats were basically joined at the hip with the big unions and other massive special interests driving costs in New York out of sight. Where can they go now? 2014 is a long way away. And even so, they can't get behind a Republican. What do they have left? The Green Party and Howie Hawkins? Or perhaps his ideological twin Charles Barron who also had a "tax everything" mentality in the 2010 New York Gubernatorial Comedy Variety Show, aka "Debate"? Hey, speaking of comedy, maybe Jimmy "Rent is too damn high" McMillan could be talked into changing his message a bit? "Cuts are too damn much"?

This is really entertaining. The special interests have to be a bit careful criticizing Andrew Cuomo, being that he is a Democrat afterall. Against the likes of Paladino, they had to support him. Criticizing him too much now would seem hypocritical. And yet he's at least talking about refusing to do their bidding. What can they do?

New York is on an unsustainable path. Too many people are without jobs and too many people continue to leave the state for others with less regulation, more efficient state governments, lower property taxes (that's practically every state other than New York), less welfare, more opportunities, and a host of other reasons. The special interests can get out their violins and spend millions to complain all over television, but fewer and fewer people will buy it. And worst of all, they have to spend this money with an elected liberal Democrat in office! My goodness.

Cuomo would not have to do anything if all he wanted was reelection. He could coast along, be friendly with everyone, do the bidding of the special interests, and win a landslide reelection as a Democrat and a sitting governor. But if he has any higher ambitions in mind for the future (like 2016 or 2020), he must make good on his statements. He cannot buckle. So, I'm going to get some popcorn and enjoy watching the epic battle between New York's entrenched political dynasty and New York's entrenched special interests.

Does Schumer Need a High School Civics Refresher?

2011-02-01T14:41:00.000-08:00

by Bill Claydon

Okay, I know some believe in a “living Constitution” which means different things depending on what ends they have in mind on any given day, but this one takes the cake. Since high level big government politicians are never wrong, according to Chucky Schumer, the three branches of government now consist of the House, Senate, and the President. Silly me, I thought there was a Legislative (consisting of the House and Senate), Executive (including the President and his collection of Secretaries and continuously multiplying Czars that write regulations which ultimately reduce the power of the Legislative branch), and the Judicial branch. In Schumer’s (frightening) world, the Judicial branch no longer exists, and the House and Senate are each a separate branch. Wow.

Now, will Kirsten Gillibrand initially deny that Schumer said that, like she did with his little, um…..gaffe involving a flight attendant? I know I’ve complained about her lack of media appearances, but maybe she is the smarter of these two.

Okay, fun time is over. Let’s face it: Schumer misspoke. But doing a quick Google search reveals that the only media which gave this any attention are conservative media and blogs. Can anyone imagine the level of (liberal) mainstream media feeding frenzy if Palin or Bachmann (cue all the nasty, angry statements about these two now that I’ve mentioned their names) said anything like this? It’s amazing to see how the mainstream media is constantly lurking for any gaffe by a conservative woman who does not hold elected office on one hand, or a conservative woman who is a mere US House member from way out in Minnesota on another. Yet, a high ranking ultra liberal Senator from a state with a high population utters a gaffe which gets very little attention by the liberal mainstream media.

On the other hand, maybe Chucky really does want to forget about the Judicial Branch. Afterall, he and his minime, Kirsten Gillibrand, rubber stamped Obama’s power grab over individual rights known as ObamaCare. And now a federal judge has struck that mess down. It will ultimately wind up in the US Supreme Court. There are four liberals, four conservatives, and a lone swing vote justice who happened to be appointed by Ronald Reagan. And that justice, Anthony Kennedy, has said he will not retire in Obama’s first term. Obama’s disrespectful, petty, and totally unprofessional swipe at the Supreme Court during his 2010 State of the Union address probably did not exactly endear him to Justice Kennedy. A 5-4 decision is all it takes…

Senator Gillibrand, Tear Down This Bill

2011-01-23T21:39:00.000-08:00

by Bill Claydon

Recently, I blogged about how Harry Reid, still leading the Senate merely due to a very slim Democrat majority, is preventing the American people from seeing a Senate vote on the measure to repeal ObamaCare as passed by a bipartisan majority in the US House. He is preventing Obama from possibly having to veto this bill since Obama must face voters in 2012. But as I noted in my previous blog, Reid is also allowing a handful of Democrat Senators up for reelection in 2012 from red or purple states to hide behind him while he, well, hides the repeal bill. Ultimately, Reid gives fodder to the opponents of both Obama and all the Democrat Senators up for reelection in vulnerable seats.

But I never bothered to mention another Senator up for reelection in 2012: New York’s own Kirsten Gillibrand. As it stands now, it is my opinion that New York would vote for anyone with a “D” after their name. If it was the clown Jimmy McMillan (if you’ve forgotten that flash in the pan already, you’ll remember this: “Rent. Is. Too. Damn. High.”) running as the Democrat nominee for a US Senate seat, he’d easily take 60% of the vote. At least right now. That may not always be the case.

Gillibrand is a chameleon. The Kirsten Gillibrand who represented New York’s 20th Congressional District was independent and outspoken. She was frequently in the media, voted against the TARP boondoggle, and let everyone know where she stood. As much as I may have disagreed with her on some issues, I admired that she would come out and make her case known. I even found a small number of areas where I agreed with her. When she was appointed Senator, I thought she would be the same person. Instead, she seems to just vote however Schumer (finally the real Senior Senator once Hillary went on to bigger things) does. When she wants to show some occasional independence, she votes to the left of Schumer, difficult as that feat is to accomplish. She almost never speaks out on why she voted. Media appearances seem to be focused more on things like spreads in Vogue.

Under current circumstances, Gillibrand has a cakewalk to reelection. But so does another Democrat in a high position in New York politics: newly minted Governor Andrew Cuomo. The funny thing is that while Gillibrand is just towing the line of Schumer and others in the Democrat hierarchy, Cuomo is at least talking about and doing some occasional things to attempt to deal with New York’s problems. Cuomo really doesn’t have to, because as it stands now in New York, he is guaranteed reelection no matter what he does. Nobody beyond the Jimmy McMillans and others who participated in the New York Gubernatorial Circus Show last year needs to bother wasting their time running. But maybe Cuomo realizes things are in a mess and does not want to have a legacy of doing nothing. Maybe he even realizes that there is (shudder) the remote possibility that unless he does something in his first term, he might not actually be returned to the governor’s office for a second term. Of course, for Cuomo, he has to worry about 2014, not 2012. Political winds can shift quite a bit by then.

While Gillibrand has an election coming up sooner, and while she is not a chief executive of a state, she should gather the courage to vote to repeal what is simply bad legislation. If, as a Senator, she lacks the backbone she once had in voting against the boondoggle known as TARP, she at least ought to push for a simple VOTE on repealing the boondoggle known as ObamaCare. She can still vote with Schumer on it and be in line with her Democrat masters.

Although 2012 might be “just around the corner,” much can happen between now and November of next year. With Reid starting things off by blocking legislation coming out of the House, the Republicans can run on a national message that Reid is disrupting progress for the American people. Should they continue to pass decent legislation that just gets Reid’s “veto,” it’s a gift on a silver platter. If unemployment continues to hover close to 10% and the economy continues to stagnate, it may not be a “cakewalk” environment, even for a Democrat in New York.

Gillibrand may have to actually fill the role of Junior Senator from New York, unlike her predecessor. But that does not mean she cannot be outspoken, actually defend each of her votes, appear more often on hard media (note: Vogue does not qualify) and show some leadership skills. She had them before being handed a “promotion” by former New York Governor David Paterson. She needs to remember them.

While 2010 was a referendum on Obama and Pelosi’s “leadership,” 2012 will be an even bigger referendum on Obama. With John Boehner basically hamstrung by Harry Reid, he has far less power than Nancy Pelosi. Should there be no progress, the focus will be on defeating the incumbent president and flipping the Senate from the limited grip of his party. Gillibrand needs to distinguish herself and stand on her own, rather than just riding coattails of Obama for better or worse. Should the road to 2012 be a messy ride without real change, her reelection may not be a given. Not even in deep blue New York.

Schumer's Advice for Obama

2010-12-21T22:06:00.000-08:00

by Bill Claydon

A liberal commenter on another blog suggested that I salute Chuck Schumer for making sure the middle class can keep a tax credit for college tuition. And while I am not a class warrior and would prefer such a tax credit go to anyone paying for college, I can say that even if it’s got some income limit it’s still a good start. Considering the enormous expense of college what with all the six figure salary bureaucrats, some six figure salary professors, and a handful of departments offering majors that are politically correct but provide no serious job prospects (except maybe “community organizer” jobs —- which in modern times have been known to qualify at least one person for a part time US Senate position and even president) all who seem to want MORE money, poor college students are in a deep financial hole. Indeed they ought to get a tax credit for all the funding they’re giving these bureaucrats. If not for students, imagine the unemployment numbers! Besides, if the students become productive citizens who make money as college graduates, they can be demonized as part of the “evil rich” later on.

But I think it’s more important to thank Chucky for something else: being himself. He recently got some sort of new position within the Democrat Senate hierarchy (likely with a bonus of additional tax money in salary while a number of Americans don’t know where their next meal, mortgage payment, or property tax payment is coming from). This was basically a consolation prize to avoid running against a weakened Harry Reid for the position of Majority Leader. It’s something to do with communications. We know Chucky is great at communications as demonstrated with a flight attendant. Schumer likes regulations for others, but evidently didn’t react as well when a flight attendant was doing her job enforcing safety regulations that happened to inconvenience him.

But seriously, as the third ranking Democrat Senator, his um, uh, communications skills have a potential impact on other Democrat Senators facing tough reelections in red states. That ObamaCare vote did them no favors. And Schumer’s loud mouth won’t do them any either.

Still, I have to hand it to Schumer. He says what he means and means what he says. You know what you’re getting. And he’s willing to stand up and defend his views. His minime, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, started out being like that (outspoken, defended her views, meant what she said, etc.) even if a little to the right of Schumer. Now she’s a virtual clone of Schumer (albeit a bit younger) and really doesn’t get around for too many candid conversations with either her constituents or the media. Hey, if she’s going to vote almost exactly like Schumer, she ought to fulfill the rest of the picture.

But back to Schumer. He just cruised to reelection in New York. He won’t be up again until 2016, a few political epochs into the future. Besides, being in New York, anyone with a “D” after their name automatically wins in a Senate race. So, he can be as candid as he wants.

Recently, Schumer was candid about Obama, saying Congressional Democrats are “joined at the hip” with Obama. That sure sounds like a ringing endorsement of Obama’s recent (triangulating) behavior.

Schumer’s advice to Obama is not to give up his “core fundamental principles.” This is a perspective issue. See, Chucky can get away with that being a Senator from New York. He is guaranteed reelection for as long as he wants the job. He can be further left than Marx, Lenin, Stalin, Mao, etc. and still win 60% of the vote in New York. Obama has a totally different political landscape to deal with. While Obama may personally be ultra leftwing, that stuff is no longer in. It never was, even during the end of the Bush era. What was in at that point? Bush fatigue. Bush as a Republican president doomed most Republican candidates in 2008. But that didn’t mean people embraced Schumer/Obama extreme leftwing ideals. They just bought into the vapid “hope and change” rhetoric read from a teleprompter because they were burned out.

Still, as a conservative, I wouldn’t mind seeing Obama take Schumer’s advice. It’s far better for him to stick to the hardcore left. The country can endure it for a couple of years. Then November, 2012 can come around. The “wealth” of a good shellacking should be spread around. Pelosi got it big time. Reid got it a little bit, and Obama needs to enjoy it too. I’d like to see Obama up there with other one-term wonders like Franklin Pierce, Rutherford Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, Jimmy Carter, and George HW Bush. Wait, forget that. Hayes voluntarily announced he would be a one termer. As to the others besides listed Carter, the rest are forgotten (HW Bush is basically remembered by virtue of being the father of #43). And Obama is making Jimmy Carter’s presidency look good by comparison.

So, I salute Schumer for his advice to Obama. Keep it coming. And if Obama could take that advice it would be great. But don’t let Republicans get complacent either. We want REAL change you can believe in, starting at noon on January 20, 2013.

Ann Marie Buerkle of NY-25 has the kind of tax issues one wants to see in a politician

2010-12-13T14:03:00.001-08:00

By Sam Foster

One of the three best campaign blogs careening through the vast blogiverse has a story up on Ann Marie Buerkle's latest tax problems:

The problem began when Video King, a former tenant in a strip shopping center Buerkle owns on Kasson Road in Camillus, incorrectly reported how it paid its rent for the property, Buerkle said.

Video King filled out an IRS form showing it paid Buerkle "non-employee compensation" instead of correctly listing the payments as rent, according to Buerkle's accountant, Ken Cardarelli, of Onondaga Hill.

The mistake prompted the IRS to seek additional income tax from Buerkle. The IRS shared its information under a reciprocity agreement with New York state, which also sought additional income tax, Cardarelli said. He said Buerkle's efforts to clear her tax record were complicated because Video King was bankrupt and shut down its operations.

"Unfortunately, no one was available at Video King to remedy their error," Cardarelli said. "It took so long to get all cleared up. But the IRS eventually cleared the tax and any interest and paid her back some interest." He said the issue with the IRS was settled in the first quarter of this year, and the information was shared with New York state.

Cardarelli said he was surprised to hear about the tax warrant filed Dec. 3 in the Onondaga County clerk's office. "The state said it was on hold, and they are reviewing the matter," Cardarelli said of his last contact with state tax officials. "It could take up to 90 days."

Apparently, the DCCC is looking to capitalize on Buerkle's supposed tax error despite the fact that this has already been tried and failed.

However, it is interesting to compare Ann Marie Buerkle's situation to those of prominent Democrats. Where Democrats are concerned, tax issues involve fraud of the creative accounting variety. Yet, these aren't the only kind of tax issues that can arise.

Ann Marie Buerkle has the other kind of tax issues; the kind that one actually wants to see in a Washington politician. Buerkle's supposed "tax problems" are really nothing more than a result of a business woman being in business. It is nothing less than proof positive that she knows what small businesses are up against.

Ann Marie's Buerkle's first blush with tax issues occurred as a result of a triple-net lease agreement she'd established with a tenant. This particular agreement assigns responsibility of tax payments to the tenant. However, Ann Marie Buerkle's name is what pops up on the tax role. So, while this arrangement may sound risky, it's actually common practice with commercial leases and they are often, widely lucrative.

Flash forward to today and Buerkle faces a separate issue relating to incorrect tax preparation from a tenant. The issue is easily resolved and probably more common for small business owners than you think which is why this latest ploy against Buerkle by the DCCC isn't likely to gain any political capital.

Because, you can try and convict Ann Marie Buerkle of being a small business owner with small business problems, but you also can't concoct a better argument for her reelection.

NY-1’s close race gets closer as ballot challenges lowers Tim Bishop’s lead over Randy Altschuler to 221

2010-12-01T06:56:00.000-08:00

By Sam Foster

Amid evidence of voter fraud discovered by Fox News yesterday, both Bishop and Altschuler camps took to the piles of roughly 2,000 challenged absentee ballots yesterday. Amid bipartisan agreement, some of the challenges were dropped thus diminishing Tim Bishop's lead slightly.

Sag Harbor Express reports:

This comes after the incumbent Congressman picked up a 235-vote lead against Altschuler after a rollercoaster of election results since election day when unofficial results gave Bishop a 3,500 vote lead, only to have Altschuler claim a 383-vote advantage after the county's new electronic voting machines were reread.

At the close of counting some 11,500 absentee and affidavit ballots, Bishop led the race last week 97,050 to 96,815, but according to both campaigns Altschuler has picked up a handful of votes in the counting of 71 military ballots, narrowing Bishop's lead to 221.

However, this rollercoaster ride of an election is far from over according to Randy Altschuler's spokesperson, who hinted yesterday that they expected to bring up more instances of fraud not yet reported. Perhaps, a taste of what the Altschuler camp has up their sleeves:

"This is exactly what we have been talking about," said Ryan on Tuesday. "These are the exact things we are taking a closer look at."

While Ryan acknowledged it is legal to vote in Suffolk County while maintaining a residence in New York, he questioned the legality of casting a ballot in a district outside of where one registers their car, or files for their New York State School Tax Relief (STAR) exemptions.

"They found people registered in both places and they have one person who voted twice, and I think they will have a couple of other interesting things to put out there before this is over," said Ryan of the FOX news report."

For now, we'll have to wait to see how this pans out, but please stop back often as I'll be covering this race up until the bitter, court pronounced end.

NY-1 absentee count seesaw: Tim Bishop leads by 14, then down by 10 to Randy Altschuler, now up by 17 and it’ll be different by the end of the day

2010-11-22T13:16:00.000-08:00

By Sam Foster

The race in NY-1 is so close, that the leader has been changing back and forth all day and never above a double digit margin.

Tim Bishop started the day with a 14 vote lead as officials resumed counting the remaining precincts in Brookhaven, NY this morning. By 10:30 am, NRO was reporting that Randy Altschuler had retaken the lead with 10 votes. At noon, Time Beacon Record had Tim Bishop over Altschuler by 17.

I'll keep with the coverage and hopefully be able to provide you with the final situation at the end of the day.

There are of course several other factors to consider:

First of all, Randy Altschuler has challenged far more ballots than Tim Bishop. The Bishop campaign claims that most, if not all, these challenges will be overturned in court.

More significant than the slim lead is the growing disparity in the number of ballots challenged, said Schneider, who Monday noon put those numbers at 797 challenges by Altschuler and 567 challenges by Bishop. Schneider expects most of the challenges to be dismissed eventually and the ballots added to the candidates' respective totals.

Randy Altschuler claims that he carried 91% of the Brookhaven precincts on Election Day. Thus the final precincts to be counted could be Altschuler votes.

Finally, there is supposed to be a bit of recanvassing completed today and could send some votes one way or another.

Check back for more updates…

Buerkle holds lead in NY-25 after Onondaga County Absentee Count will likely emerge victorious

2010-11-19T18:29:00.000-08:00

By Sam Foster
Cross-posted at Left Coast Rebel
Via Memeorandum

It's nearly a "mathematical certainty" according to a spokeperson associated with Ann Marie Buerkle's campaign. Thanks to a recanvass of Wayne County and the final absentee count in Onondaga County. Dan Maffei has little chance in erroding Ann Marie Buerkle's lead.

According to CNY, Dan Maffei did win Onondaga County, the portion of NY-25 with the largest number of absentee votes (about 6,300). According to reports, Dan Maffei picked up 557 votes against Ann Marie, but Buerkle's lead was too much. She had 824 votes over Dan Maffei going into the count today and a recanvass of Wayne County moved an additional 144 votes into Buerkles column. She now leads by 411.

The counting is not complete however, Wayne County still needs to finish their absentee count. However, the area is a Buerkle strong hold that she carried by a 25 point margin on election night. Dan Maffei would need to win by 83% of the vote.

Burkle hasn't yet claimed victory, but its pretty much a formality at this point given the deficit Maffei is facing. In short, Ann Marie Buerkle has just emerged victorious in NY-25.

Update x1:

Headline from Buerkle's Campaing? "Buerkle's Lead Can't Be Beat"

Update x2:

Expert Blogger and political writer: Buerkle's win makes "most Republican congress since 1949"

Election Related:
Judge to halt Murkowski certification?

Rent is Too Damn High Jimmy McMillan sues NY Board of Elections $350 million for omitting “Damn”…Again!

2010-11-19T09:13:00.001-08:00

By Sam Foster

Looks like Rent is Too Damn High mogul Jimmy McMillan is fixing to sue the Board of Elections for omitting the "Damn" from Rent is too Damn High" during two previous elections. The board claims that the name was too [Damn] long to fit on the ballots.

Jimmy McMillan isn't buyong it and last year when the issue arose McMillan offered the following curse laced statement:

"I would love to put on my website that the Board of Elections can suck my dick, I would love to do that, but I got little children going to my website, I can't do it, the motherfuckers. I would love to, before every one of them go to bed at night, suckin' my damn dick. That's what I'd love to put on my website. Every fuckin' one of them, you know."

A judge threw out an earlier $50 million lawsuit and my guess is that Jimmy thought it was because the suit wasn't "too damn high" enough.

Courts rule on disputed ballots in NY-25; Ann Marie picks up another 95 votes and now leads Dan Maffei by 824 votes

2010-11-17T12:03:00.000-08:00

By Sam Foster

I've been keeping a keen eye on this race. I hope to hear what the total count is in Wayne County's absentee count that started yesterday. I suspect we won't hear anything until tomorrow though. Onondaga County also started counting absentees today. The results will likely take many days to emerge.

However, Ann Marie Buerkle and Dan Maffei did battle it out in court over some 200 absentee's that Dan Maffei disputed from Monroe County. The judge has aloud many of them to be counted boosting Ann Marie Buerkle's lead to 824 votes.

Via Democrat and Chronicle:

Ann Marie Buerkle widedned her lead by an additional 95 votes today after Monroe County absentee ballots were opened.

The ballots were opened in a courthouse in Onondaga County after a judge ruled that because the ballots did not have specific objections, he had nothing to rule on.

Buerkle is now 824 votes ahead of her opponent Rep. Dan Maffei, a Democrat.

State Supreme Court Justice Brian DeJoseph in Syracuse ordered today that about 230 absentee ballot envelopes objected to in Monroe County be opened.

The ballots are part of the ongoing count in the tight race in the 25th Congressional District between Maffei, D-DeWitt, Onondaga County, and Buerkle of Onondaga Hill, Onondaga County.

Until Wayne County is counted, it is difficult to speculate. However, with every vote gain by Buerkle sends the potential for a Dan Maffei come back further out of reach. At over 820 votes Dan Maffei will need to win Onondaga County by about 15%, despite the ballots leaning Republican.

NY-25 Update for Nov 12: Ann Marie Buerkle picks up 24 votes and now leads Dan Maffei by 711 as Cayuga County finishes absentee count

2010-11-12T14:12:00.000-08:00

By Sam Foster

Today, Cayuga County officially finished their absentee vote count, the first county in NY-25 to do so. According to the Post-Standard, she picked up an additional 24 votes:

Republican Ann Marie Buerkle picked up 24 votes today in the undecided race against Rep. Dan Maffei, D-DeWitt, after Cayuga County finished counting its absentee ballots.

When the counting finished this afternoon, Maffei had received 35 absentee votes and Buerkle 59 absentee votes, according to Cayuga County Election Commissioner Kate Lacey.

The difference means that Buerkle has now widened her overall lead in the four-county district to 711 votes, according to unofficial election returns.

Cayuga County had the fewest number of absentee votes to count, around 123. Monroe County started their count today. The other two remaining counties will begin on the 17^th. Given the lead Ann Marie Buerkle has acquired, incumbent Dan Maffei will be hard pressed to emerge victorious. Despite an winning Onondaga County by 8 points on election night, by the number Buerkle has put up so far, he will need to go better than a 10 point margin just to pull even.

Let the voter fraud begin in NY-25: Dan Maffei campaign actively trying to disenfranchise absentee voters prior to vote count

2010-11-08T14:31:00.000-08:00

By Sam Foster

We all knew it was bound to happen, but it looks like NY-25 is degrading into a whole new level of nasty.

Democrat Incumbent Dan Maffei is down 700 votes to Ann Marie Buerkle, so naturally, it's time for the Democrats to get down in the muck. YNN is reporting that Dan Maffei is actively contacting absentee voters in an effort to create a tally of how people voted ahead of the actual count. Bill Carey of YNN was astounded by the effort, reporting that he'd never heard of a campaign using such tactics.

Ann Marie Buerkle points out that the purpose of this tactic could be used to disenfranchise absentee voters by disqualifying eligible ballots before they are even counted. Buerkle's campaign writes:

"While the reasons for this effort are unclear – many agree it could be an attempt by some to identify who each person voted for in an effort to disqualify certain eligible ballots from being counted. I would like the public to know that my campaign is not connected to this current effort."

"Further, no American – in Upstate New York or anywhere – is in anyway under obligation to provide information to anyone on how he or she voted in any election, including my own."

"If anyone is contacted in this effort please know that your vote is privileged, and under no circumstances should an individual be pressured in to revealing how their vote was cast. If you are contacted, ask them to provide their full name, for whom they work, why they are seeking this information and if you are required to provide this information."

However, instead of being ashamed at the audacity of contacting voters and in effect, intimidating residents into revealing how they voted on a secret ballot, the Maffei campaign defends its disregard for voter rights.

"In an election as close as this, it is more important than ever to ensure the integrity of the process. As we continue to gather information, we have discovered some possible inconsistencies in the election night reporting in addition to some absentee voters who may have been deceased."
"We will turn over any information we discover to the Board of Elections for further review and our efforts are ongoing."

There are a number of issues here. Let's begin with the obvious. It is completely out of line for a congressman to be asking people how they voted before their ballots are even counted. While it may be a form of soft intimidation, Maffei is using an office of power to disenfranchise voters. What YNN missed in all their reporting was point of all of this is chicanery, which is to create an atmosphere of uncertainty so that Maffei can through legal fiat, create as many possible objections to the election results as possible thereby increasing his likelihood of stealing the election through judicial activism.

This reeks of desperation on Maffei's part and that could be positive or negative. Clearly, Maffei is very uncertain that he can prevail in the absentee vote count, which is a highly unlikely outcome since he needs to beat Ann Marie Buerkle by more than a 10% margin district-wide just to erase her lead. This makes a win via judicial decision the most likely strategy Maffei has left.

Reid, Murray, Boxer, Schumer, and Gillibrand

2010-11-06T08:35:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

Would I have been happy if any or all of the first three had been defeated on Tuesday? Of course. Obviously the last two were totally out of reach with them being Democrats from New York. If Jimmy McMillan with his useless platform (which accomplished precisely what it was designed for….to launch his entertainment career) had been the Democrat nominee for either US Senate seat in New York, he’d have won by a million vote margin too.

But is it really that bad that all five of these extreme leftists managed to be reelected? Not at all. Actually, let me correct myself. The first four are leftists and the last is a rubber stamp for leftist #4. The rubber stamp was independent during her days as a Congresswoman and is now mostly a puppet.

So why is it not so bad? Boxer (CA) and Schumer (NY) are utterly obnoxious. Reid (NV) might be less obnoxious than either of these two, but he still has his own level of obnoxiousness. Being the Senate Majority Leader, he has high visibility. Murray (WA) is fairly quiet but definitely extreme, and has high seniority within the Senate. Gillibrand is quiet too, because she generally just votes with Schumer. In that sense, he may as well be speaking for both of them.

So why should we not mind obnoxious and extremist types in the Senate? With the exception of Reid, these come from states that consistently elect these types. So, it’s a given that the Senate is going to have someone like Boxer from California or Schumer from New York. Washington is also fairly liberal too. The bulk of Democrats in the Senate are holdovers from the 2006 and 2008 elections.

Both Barack AND Michelle Obama campaigned for Harry Reid. Barack Obama campaigned for Patty Murray and Barbara Boxer as well. He’s associated with them. They’re his problem. Obama is up for reelection in 2012 (unless enough people “convince” Hillary to change her mind about not running in 2012). Any attempts to seem more centrist or reasonable as we get closer to the election can easily be matched with statements from the likes of Reid, Boxer, and Murray, who personally don’t have to worry about another election for six years. Boxer, after beating back a challenge from Fiorina where the polls occasionally put Fiorina ahead, may come out with another entertaining gaffe like “Call me Senator; I worked hard for that title.” In reality, she happened to be a Democrat and get nominated for US Senator from California. It’s California. So, whenever Barbara “Call me Senator” Boxer wants to be reelected, she will be. Maybe she had to “work hard” to push her way through other Democrats to get the nod way back in 1992. But after that, Boxer will continue to retain her job for as long as she wants it. Afterall, she has a “D” after her name.

Defeat would have meant that these people would step into history and eventually be forgotten. But now they will continue to be in the spotlight. Further, had Angle and O’Donnell been elected, they could have been lightning rods for Obama to play against in his reelection campaign. (Note: I did not include Coons in my title only because he is not an incumbent. But Obama campaigned for him too and I’m sure he will provide gaffes with which Obama can be associated.)

But let’s shift focus to the US Senate for the moment. In 2012, there are several Democrat Senators from centrist or right-leaning states (or states which just elected a Republican governor and/or Senator) who will be up for reelection including:

- Claire McCaskill (Missouri)
- Bill Nelson (Florida)
- Ben Nelson (Nebraska)
- Bob Casey, Jr. (Pennsylvania)
- Jim Webb (Virginia)
- Debbie Stabenow (Michigan)
- Jon Tester (Montana)
- Sherrod Brown (Ohio)
- Kent Conrad (North Dakota)
- Joe Manchin (West Virginia)
- Herb Kohl (Wisconsin)

Barring new scandals, Republicans have potential liabilities in the following:
- Scott Brown (Massachusetts) — likely will flip since it’s Massachusetts
- Olympia Snowe (Maine)
- John Ensign (Nevada)

The eleven Democrats can be tied to Obama and Reid. Just a few turnovers among them, even if Massachusetts and Maine are lost, could amount to narrow Republican control of the Senate. I’d suggest that Ben Nelson, Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown, Kent Conrad, Jim Webb, and possibly Claire McCaskill and Bob Casey, are ripe for defeat under current circumstances. Should Republicans keep their current seats, lose Massachusetts and Maine, and flip six of these Democrat held seats, they get narrow control of the Senate. Obviously if they keep Maine, they only need to flip five.

Reid, Boxer, Schumer, and other obnoxious Democrat Senators like Kerry, Durbin and Harkin, could be useful in this effort. They (especially Reid as Majority Leader) can be tied to these vulnerable Senators. If Al Franken wants to be loud too, that would make it even more fun. And if Coons mixes things up a bit, even better. In fact, one of the presumed “safe” Democrat seats up in 2012 could flip.

The eleven named Democrats will need to be more centrist and some would even need to be “fake conservative” to meet the leanings of their states. They will not be able to just march in lock step with the likes of Reid, Boxer, and Schumer, all of whom won reelection and don’t have to worry about another election for six years. None of these eleven want to be the next Russ Feingold (WI). And if they start to see the handwriting on the wall, they could be the next Byron Dorgan, meaning that the Democrat running in their place would likely face defeat.

But if the obnoxious colleagues of these eleven were not enough, then there is Obama. He’s not popular in most of the states represented by these eleven Senators. His name will more than likely be on the ballot in 2012….along with these Senators. He could be problematic for down ballot candidates. 2012 could indeed be another year of “change we can believe in.”

Paging lawyers to NY-25: Republican Ann Marie Buerkle leads the vote count so naturally Democrat Dan Maffei is fundraising for a legal team

2010-11-05T13:34:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

On Wednesday, I broke the news that Ann Marie Buerkle had assumed the lead in NY-25 after the final vote count was completed. There are still a large number of absentee ballots to be counted and Ann Marie Buerkle is leading by a slim 700 votes, but that certainly hasn't stopped Dan Maffei from flailing desperately for a legal team.

Dan Maffei has sent out the following conspiracy laden fundraising plea. Via Capital Tonight:

It's been a long few days, but I wanted to give you an update on my race," Maffei wrote.
"While it still has not been called, we are neck and neck, with thousands of absentee ballots to be counted. National Republicans are already starting to send folks up to my district – and as Florida in 2000 showed us, they will do anything to win."
"We need to make sure that every vote is counted. Can you contribute today?"
"We need your help right now. We are in the process of assembling our team to help ensure that every vote is counted, but this is a costly process. We need to raise $25,000 by Monday to make sure that we have the strongest team possible."
"Your generous support has gotten us to this point – but we need your help to ensure Republicans can't steal this election…This process could take days, possibly weeks, but I have every confidence that we will come out victorious."

Apparently, Maffei is part of the "George Bush stole the election" conspiracy crowd, but his charges that Ann Marie is trying to steal the election is capricious and more than a little unhinged. However, it is clear that Dan Maffei is not confident that he will come out victorious and is hoping to accomplish through legal teams what he failed so egregiously on the campaign trail. Please consider donating to Ann Marie Buerkle's post election fund so that she can fight off Dan's legal election team.

Belated Congratulations to Chris Gibson!

2010-11-04T18:45:00.001-07:00

by Bill Claydon

With this blog entry, I would like to offer a belated but heartfelt congratulations to Chris Gibson for winning the congressional election for New York’s 20th Congressional District! This was an amazing double digit point win. Gibson will enter Congress with a mandate. The people have clearly spoken and said they want real change.

This was a hard fought battle as is any battle where an incumbent is involved. An incumbent has name recognition and the ability to continuously generate publicity via his/her office’s press releases and mailings to constituents. The act of doing one’s duties in office creates media exposure. The opponent must work harder to get his or her name out there and get people excited about supporting them. This is a tough hill to climb.

Some might dismiss this victory as merely being from a district with an advantage in terms of Republican registrations. I think that assessment is plain wrong. For three elections in a row, the district went to a Democrat candidate. The shift in the 2006 election is understandable because John Sweeney was the incumbent at the time. But based on 2008 and 2009, this district could hardly be classified as a “safe Republican district” regardless of registrations. Colonel Gibson beat an incumbent with roughly three times as much money in campaign funds who had support of major political celebrities like Bill Clinton and Andrew Cuomo.

Having spoken with Chris Gibson a number of times, he struck me as fresh, personable, genuine and someone with whom I could trust to mean what he says and say what he means. I firmly believe he will truly represent the people. Kinderhook is his hometown. And, as one who did not simply enter the district as a millionaire and run for Congress a short time thereafter, he understands the concerns of the ordinary people he will represent. He held numerous campaign events with the people (not just the politically connected) and was willing to take questions and engage with those who do not necessarily share his positions. He will represent both those who voted for him and those who did not.

Listening to Colonel Gibson at length about his solid in-depth knowledge of the history of our nation’s founding and deep understanding of the meaning of our founding documents, I was greatly impressed. Unlike various other campaigns in this country, this was not someone who just cherry picked certain favorite amendments of the Constitution and zeroed in on those. He spoke from the perspective of being totally immersed in the full picture and rich history of the founding era and early years of the republic. As a student of history myself (though with a major focus more on the years of 1820-1860), I am especially looking forward to seeing that perspective in action in Washington, DC.

But above all, there was one thing that I felt was most important. In one of his appearances that I attended (and I’ll bet he said this at many others I did not happen to attend), Colonel Gibson asked us to hold him accountable. He asked us to hold his feet to the fire and vote accordingly should he not stay on the straight and narrow. This is precisely the kind of attitude we need from our elected representatives. This is the attitude of someone who does not feel he “deserves” office or “owns” the office. He recognizes that it is the people’s seat. He realizes that the people can and will give it to someone else if the people lose trust in the seat’s officeholder.

Obviously, the ground game was most important. Gibson had an excited group of supporters. While I did not have as much time to attend all of the rallies, I did go to a small number. The energy was fantastic, most especially during the Gibson rally when Bill Clinton unsuccessfully campaigned for Scott Murphy. While there were many sign waves for Gibson throughout the district, election day was certainly THE day of sign waves. Spending a little bit of time participating myself, I was heartened at the enthusiasm from drivers and the very limited negative reactions. I drove near Scott Murphy’s campaign office expecting to see at least a few people waving signs for him. There were none. Murphy simply did not seem to have an enthusiastic group of volunteers, despite the claims of a limited number district residents who said they supported his votes. Where were they when it came to trying to keep Murphy in office?

While I agree with many of Chris Gibson’s views, as most people know, I am pro-life and do not agree with his views on abortion. As the Declaration of Independence states, we are endowed by our Creator with the right to life. However, I voted for him. I will pray for him for all areas of his work but especially this. His position is far better than that of Scott Murphy’s. Further, as Gibson has said he would promote efforts for adoption and vote against taxpayer funding of abortion, I can support that. During Scott Murphy’s partial term in office, a vote came up to remove taxpayer funding (to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars per year) of Planned Parenthood, the nation’s largest abortion business. Murphy voted against this. Forcing taxpayers to subsidize domestic abortion businesses, or to fund organizations overseas that promote or provide abortions, is hardly “pro-choice.” As our nation continues to pile up debt for future generations and we need to examine ways to reduce spending, this seems like a logical item to cut. Nothing stops individual abortion supporters and big corporations from continuing to donate to abortion businesses like Planned Parenthood.

In addition to congratulating Chris, I want to congratulate the campaign staff and volunteers for running/supporting an excellent campaign! But I’d like to particularly recognize Patrick Ziegler, Kate Better, Dan Odescalchi, Brad Littlefield, Steve Bulger, and Brandon Myers. Each of them did a tremendous amount of work.

Some have laughed off this victory, gleefully suggesting New York’s 20th congressional district will be axed when redistricting happens. My response? The best idea is to take things one step at a time. We can debate what the future may hold when it becomes more clear. Starting in January, we will have Congressman Gibson. We will watch his time in office. THAT is what is certain now, and THAT should be the focus.

Once again, congratulations Chris!

Ann Marie Buerkle claims lead in NY-25

2010-11-03T19:18:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

I regret for the short post here, however there are a number of stories I'm covering and I've been posting my coverage at Left Coast Rebel.

Let me cut to the chase. After Wayne County was finally counted this afternoon, Ann Marie holds less then a 700 vote lead. I have full coverage at Left Coast Rebel and will be doing up a larger post, which will be cross posted here.

Please read my NY-25 Too Close to Call coverage HERE!

Update on NY-25 Election Gridlock between Ann Marie Buerkle and Dan Maffei

2010-11-03T14:02:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Karen, at Lonely Conservative , and I have been going back and forth about where NY-25 is going to fall when all is said and done. We eagerly await the Wayne County results.

I'm continuing to look for coverage and results from Wayne County's uncounted precints. According to reports, the count was suppose to be finished today at 4, but with all the big election news, I'm not surprised that I cannot yet find the results. Unfortunatly, we are beholden to the media gods to report what may already be history.

I suggest keeping an eye on Jim Kenyon of CNY, he seems to be keeping an eye on the developments. But, it may be another night before we find out how much Maffei's lead is cut by the remaining votes.

Speaking of how many votes may be at stake, there were 42,000 votes cast for NY-25th district in 2008 and 27,000 for 2006. I'll suggest that turnout was somewhere inbetween but closer to 27,000. That leaves, at a guess, about 10,000-15,000. If Buerkle can acheive the 8 point lead she had in Cuyuga County, Maffei's lead would be cut in half.

This does not seem to be an unreasonable guesstimate, since Wayne County swung more for Paladino than did Cuyuga County did (so far). We may be looking at an even smaller lead for Maffei.

However, large or small it may be, my prediction is that Maffei will hold a vote count lead going into the absentee count. Also, I think recanvassing is more likely to find missing Maffei votes than Ann Marie Buerkle. Regardless, this is going to come down to the wire and I think Ann Marie Buerkle has a great chance of emerging victorious.

NY-1 too close to call: Tim Bishop leads Randy Altschuler by a little more than 3,000

2010-11-03T11:32:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

I'm closely watching NY-25 unfold where Ann Marie Buerkle may in fact emerge victorious over Dan Maffei as Wayne County finishes the remaining 40% of ballots. Another race in NY is still being contested. The race fell off the radar when AP called the election for incumbent Tim Bishop late last night. However, Republican Randy Altschuler has not capitulated. He's waiting out the absentee ballot count of which some nearly 9,000 votes remain uncounted.

Via The Jewish Week:

Altschuler would be the second Jewish Republican in Congress and has built ties with Rep. Eric Cantor, who is now likely to be House Majority Leader.

As of Wednesday morning Alstchuler was down about 3,000 votes but had yet to concede to Bishop as absentee ballots are being counted. The tally as of noon was 92,252 for Bishop and 88,791 for Altschuler.

At a ballroom at the Watermill Inn in Smithtown, Altschuler's supporters gathered around a TV set watching for Election Night coverage of his attempt to unseat Democratic Rep. Timothy Bishop in the First Congressional District on Long Island East End.

As other supporters in an adjacent room noshed on a spread of pasta, hero sandwiches, salad and fruit, the crowd in the main ballroom began thinning because returns were only trickling in and Bishop, 60, was maintaining a steady 3 or 4 percent lead.

"They haven't counted the votes in Smithtown yet," supporters of Alschuler, 39, kept saying, referring to the candidates base of support.

By 11:30, only about 40 percent of the vote had been counted.

Robert Ryan, Altschuler's press secretary, said the candidate was home with his family in St. James and would make the 10-minute drive to the restaurant as soon as the race was decided.

But later it became clear that the race was too close to call and would depend on the counting of more than 9,000 absentee ballots. With all 460 election districts reporting, the incumbent, had 3,461 more votes than Altschuler of the 181,043 votes cast. Bishop declined to declare victory and Altschuler did not concede.

Altschuler has a shot, although only a very minute one, at upsetting Tim Bishop. However, the bigger story might be that regardless of whether the GOP win NY-25 or NY-1, there certainly is a much bigger story to NY's congressional elections last night than the 5 seats picked up last night.

Updated: Too close to call: NY-25 race between Dan Maffei and Ann Marie Buerkle

2010-11-03T05:44:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Last night, I was live on the scene at Ann Marie Buerkle's campaign party only to leave with that undecided feeling. As the morning hours emerged, Dan Maffei held roughly a 2,000 vote lead with 96% precincts reporting. In some elections, it might be enough to call the election for a candidate, but in NY-25, the game is far from over.

Wayne County is the area holding up the show. Only 60% of the precincts have reported so far. This is by far the most Republican portion of the district and no doubt, voters will be leaning towards Republican challenger Ann Marie Buerkle. The question is, by how much.

Republicans faired well in a tough congressional atmosphere. The state-wide candidates performed poorly even in the more conservative Upstate NY. So far, Andrew Cuomo is leading Wayne County by 8 points. Republican Joe DioGuardi, running in a special election for US Senate against Kirsten Gillibrand has a small 1% lead. Clearly, Ann Marie will get no help from the top of the ticket.

If nearby districts are indications for NY-25, then Ann Marie Buerkle has a good shot. Both NY-29 and NY-24 switched their blue colors for red and despite poor top of the ticket performance in those districts.

Personally, I think this one is going to be up to the lawyers. I think it is likely Ann Marie will close the gap, the initial count may even put her ahead, but it is unlikely she will lead by enough votes to be declared winner. Absentee ballots also will likely favor Ann Marie, but I haven't found any news as to the number of them outstanding.

While the rest of the country wakes up to Republican control of the House, NY-25 will be waiting, probably for several days, to find out who they will be sending to represent them.

Update:

Karen at Lonely Conservative has the absentee ballot count at about 10,000. She also reports on a rumor that Wayne County voting machines were malfunctioning. It may be an indication on why the reporting is lagging.

Update x2:

Jill Terreri at the D&C sheds a little more detail on Wayne County's significance:

But Wayne County, which has about 12 percent of the voters in the district, had only reported about half of its election districts.

Those returns showed that Buerkle had reduced Maffei's lead but still trailed. Absentee ballots could also be a factor.

Update x3:

Some info from the Wayne Post on slow reporting:

Election officials received reports of election results from 40 of the 67 districts in Wayne County before stopping for the night after working 24 straight hours. Wayne County sheriff’s deputies arrived at the Board of Elections office on Montezuma Street in Lyons to impound all the results still being tabulated. Counts will resume Wednesday morning at 9 a.m.

Districts were slow to report voting numbers due to problems reading the tapes, some of which were physically brought to the Board of Elections office.

Update x4:

CNY.com has reported that Wayne County returns will be released by 4pm today. Also, they provided specific absentee ballot figures, although no specifics from the counties the ballots are from.

More than likely, the final outcome will be decided by absentee ballots which will be counted later this month. The Boards of Election in the four counties encompassed in the 25th District, Onondaga, Cayuga, Wayne and Monroe Counties, have sent out a total of 11,645 absentee ballots, of which 8,344 have been sent back.

What to expect from NY on Election Day

2010-11-02T06:56:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Finally, it is Election Day. A day I've been waiting for since stimulus one of seventeen hundred was passed back in February 2010 (also, the day I started blogging). To commemorate this momentous rejection of Obamanism, I will be assisting Professor William Jacobson at Legal Insurrection for his all-day live blog of the elections coast to coast. Prof. Jacobson has a snazzy setup and some excellent bloggers contributing. Please, please stop by throughout the day, you will not be sorry. Also, tonight I'll be live blogging the NY election returns at LCR and Legal Insurrection from Ann Marie Buerkle's (NY-25) location.

So if you are a NY outsider and you are wondering where NY stands in the midst of the largest Red Election Wave in history, below is a look at the close races, the polling data, the unanswered questions, and a few predictions for you.

The biggest story for NY tonight will be the congressional races. There are no Republicans that are competitive in the state-wide contests. Siena polling in Upstate NY is showing a trend across the 10 district region, where undecided likely voters are swinging heavily Republican. Conservatively, NY will produce roughly 5 seats that will change hands from Republican to Democrat, while easily retaining the two seats currently held by Pete King and Chris Lee. Below is a list of the races by difficulty for Republicans.

NY-29

Republican Tom Reed is expected to win an easy race against Democrat Matt Zeller for disgraced Eric Massa's old seat. The only polling conducted is nearly a month old and projected Tom Reed in the lead by 14 points. That's a long-time to go without polling, but it seems unlikely that Matt Zeller will win. Both Zeller and Reed were wildly unknown, but the DCCC threw in the towel early on Zeller and Matt hasn't received any support and had poor media relations (aka he didn't bother sending out press releases and frequently failed to respond to media requests). Overcoming the ghost of Massa will be a seemingly impossible task.

Outstanding Question:

Massa had one the seat with an outstanding GOTV operation. Will the pieces of the Massa movement pick themselves up and vote Zeller? I doubt it.

Prediction: Tom Reed by 10 points.

NY-20

Scott Murphy barely squeaked by Jim Tedisco in a special election for Kirsten Gillibrand's seat. Now former Army Colonel Chris Gibson is promising to retire Murphy after little more than a year. Gibson has a strong story; two tours, a PhD from Cornell, and lots of ground support as evidenced by strong single donor fundraising. Recent polling put him up 9 points on Scott Murphy and it is not moving anywhere.

No outstanding questions in this race. Chris Gibson, game, set, match!

Prediction: Chris Gibson by 6 points

NY-19

Now we move into some of the stickier races. Polling put Democrat John Hall ahead by one point in the final days, but Nan Hayworth has held the lead by three points in the past. However, the history of elections, according to Nate Silver, gives Hayworth a 69% chance of claiming the seat based on her earlier three point lead and I think she can pull it off. This race is John Hall's Orleans rocker image against well-liked Dr. Nan Hayworth and I'm sorry John Hall, this is a serious election this year and the voters will choose the Dr.

The fact that John Hall has been disengaged with his district isn't going to help either. He utilized OFA for ground operations over leading a grassroots campaign, ducked a debate sending someone else to stand in for him, and had other politicians stand in for him at town halls as well.

Prediction: Nan Hayworth by 3 points

NY-23

This is going to be an interesting race. Bill Owens is not well-liked in the district and has not been able to pull above 40% in the polls. However, instead of backing and helping conservative Doug Hoffman, the area Republicans introduced a potential spoiler in Matt Doheny. Matt Doheny emerged victorious in a close primary contest and Doug Hoffman did the honorable thing, dropping a third party run and backing Doheny. Although Tea Party leader Mark Barie has decided to back Doheny, many other Hoffman supporters are not convinced. I know, because I frequently get emails from the disaffected. The polls bear this story as well, as Matt Doheny has made some headway, but struggled to bring Hoffman supporters into the fold. He's moved from 35% to 37% in the last weeks, but there is still a large number of Hoffman supporters still backing Hoffman (about 10%), Hoffman's name is on the ballot though he dropped out, and no one can predict where those votes will swing.

Outstanding Question:

Will Doug Hoffman supporters back Matt Doheny? My guess is yes. Enough Hoffman supporters will see the possibility of sending a message to Obama as too enticing to pass up.

Prediction: Matt Doheny by 2 points
NY-24

If you haven't noticed a trend in the Siena polling above, but Upstate NY undecided voters are leaning Republican as Election Day neared. NY-20 swung 26 points, NY-23 by two and the last poll on NY-24 had Richard Hanna surge by 5. I would strongly suggest that this momentum will continue into today and Richard Hanna will emerge victorious in a close contest.

Outstanding Question:

How much have undecided voters swung toward Republicans?

Prediction:

Richard Hanna by 2 points

NY-1

With the five top seats covered, we move into the districts where there are too many questions to make a prediction, but there are clear reasons why these seats could swing in the Republican's favor and NY-1 is such a district.

Early January Republican polling showed Democrat Tim Bishop in danger and a nasty primary contest produced Randy Altschuler as Bishop's challenger. A poll from nearly a month ago showed Bishop with a 12 point lead. However, a very recent internal poll from Randy Altschuler is showing only a 2 points lead going into Election Day.

Outstanding Question:

Can Randy Altschuler rise above the messy three-way primary battle that he won? Are undecided voters leaning Republican on Long Island (no polling to evidence)?

NY-25

Most political analysts did not envision Democrat Dan Maffei as a seat in jeopardy and a month old poll showed Maffei with a 12 point lead. However, Buerkle's pollster had the race as close as one point, the seat has traditionally swung Republican and had an even split voter registration between Democrats and Republicans. Also, the seat is located in the heart of Upstate and as I pointed out, undecided voters are moving toward the Republican column.

This race has all the anecdotal evidence of an upset election, just no data.

NY-13

NY-13 encompasses Staten Island and the seat has swung Republican in the past. Democrat Mike McMahon is only a single term incumbent and McMahon had an earlier scandal on his hands, when the press found a list of voting demographics likely to vote Grimm. The list detailed how the Jew Vote was leaning for Grimm. It might be just enough to catapult Grimm into the lead.

NY-22

You known that Democrat Maurice Hinchey is in a safe district because he really shouldn't be anywhere near winning this race. At a recent debate event he assaulted a reporter. He didn't debate very well either, acknowledging that he didn't know what deficit reduction was and going on a tirade of a conspiracy on how George Bush had let Osama Bin Laden escape so he could invade Iraq.

George Phillips on the other hand is an excellent, articulate candidate. He should be winning this race in a blow-out, but gerrymandering may have its way.

Outstanding Question:

Will NY-22 finally realize that Maurice Hinchey is off his rocker? Will George Phillips benefit from the Upstate undecided swing that we are seeing in other races?

NY-2

Most expect Democrat Steve Israel to win re-election against John Gomez. There has been no polling to tout how the landscape of the race is swinging. However, Long Island had a surprise Republican victory during the November 2009 elections and so political watchers expect a possible upset this election cycle too. The money is on Randy Altschuler, but John Gomez is also a strong candidate.

Outstanding Question:

Will there be another November surprise from Long Island voters?

NY-27

I'm probably the only person in the world that would add NY-27 to their list of potential Republican victories. Democrat Brian Higgins is well known and insulated, while Leonard Roberto has been largely under funded and unknown. However, Cook Political Report has NY-27's PVI at only D+4 and Roberto could get a huge top of the ticket bump from Carl Paladino who is leading Cuomo in Erie County by 20 points. If there is going to be a left-field, no one saw this coming victory, it could be NY-27.

Outstanding Question:

How big can Paladino bump?

Big Outstanding Questions for Tonight

Republicans aren't really close on the state-wide races, will this hurt congressional candidates in close races?

However, Democrats cakewalk statewide elections may not deliver voters to the polls?

Will Long Island produce a November surprise?

How much will undecided voters lean Republican?

Will Paladino help or hurt Republicans and which races?

Chris Gibson Rally at the Hall of Springs in Saratoga County

2010-11-01T10:44:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

While Bill Clinton spent his time on a last ditch effort to bail out Scott Murphy’s (D-NY 20) sinking fortunes at the Hall of Springs in Saratoga County, 250-300 supporters of Colonel Chris Gibson braved cold temperatures in the mid 30s to stand up for the kind of change New York’s 20th district needs. Rather than a Pelosi puppet who serves as her representative to New York’s 20th district, we support a man who will actually represent us in the US House of Representatives.

Let’s make it clear there were far more than the “couple of dozen” Gibson supporters as claimed by WGY radio. I was personally there. If anyone wonders why tea party people don’t take the mainstream media seriously anymore, this is a great example. When the mainstream media learns about such things as accuracy in reporting about events related to non-leftist candidates, we may again take their reporting with something more than a grain of salt.

Police cordoned off an area close to the entrance so we could rally for Gibson. Gibson supporters were enthusiastic and energetic despite being out early morning in the cold. While Democrat politicians and others went in, Gibson supporters chanted his name, asked where the jobs are, reminded people there is just one more day, etc. After the attendees went inside, we said he pledge of allegiance and sang various patriotic songs.

Clinton was late to the event, likely messing up schedules for his subsequent appearances all the way down the line. Regardless of the extended time, most of the Gibson supporters were able to stay until Democrat politicians and the other guests left. We greeted them with Gibson signs and chants for the man who will hopefully be our new representative in January.

In chatting with one Gibson supporter, he noted that the fact that Clinton was doing this one early did not seem so good for Murphy. We felt Clinton was basically checking this one off his list. For a candidate who might have some promise, a more appropriate time would be lunch time or the afternoon when more people could show up. The bigger the crowd, the better it looks. But Clinton had other candidates to try to bail out later in the day…

Highlights included a Gibson supporter wearing a Clinton mask, riding a bicycle around with Gibson signs. Another gentleman announced that he became an American citizen in August and his first vote would be for Gibson. The crowd cheered. He pointed out that he escaped Canadian “health care.”

Many of the Clinton event attendees came out with Murphy signs. What might have been interesting is to see how many of these people might have attended the event if Bill Clinton wasn’t present. (I’m guessing it would be double digits or maybe even a single digit number.) Many waved their Murphy signs at us. Some laughed along and showed some enthusiasm for the guy whose poll numbers were bad enough to warrant Clinton taking time away from other candidates who seriously need his help. Other attendees were visibly disturbed that people might actually support a candidate other than the one they were supporting. At one point, a particular supporter turned around with a sour look on her face and started angrily questioning one of the Gibson supporters. She seemed like she might be ready to get in his face. Thankfully, a park police officer was right there to ask her to move along. People need to understand that freedom of speech is not a one way street.

But I really cannot understand why anyone would be sour or upset. They should just laugh the 250-300 Gibson supporters off. Afterall, Murphy has voted for most of the legislation Pelosi has rammed through Congress. Pelosi knows what’s best for all Americans, doesn’t she? And Murphy has rubber stamped almost 90% of Pelosi’s big government whims. So shouldn’t Scott Murphy have a lock on reelection, likely coming out with a 20 to 30 point lead? But then, if he was doing so well, there would be no need for Bill Clinton to take time away from his busy schedule to appear with Murphy…

NY-28 Republican candidate Jill Rowland threatened by man with knife

2010-11-01T08:08:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Whoa, how did I miss this one? According to Dr. Jill Rowland's FB page (she's the Republican candidate for NY's 28th Congressional District), she was threatened last week by a man with a knife:

Rochester, NY – Wednesday evening, Jill Rowland, the 28th congressional district candidate, was attending a question and answer round table discussion at the Radisson hotel in downtown Rochester. Dr. Rowland was an invited guest of the Turkish American Business and Development Council. At around 10 PM, a man clad in sunglasses and of questionable attire entered the hotel lobby and headed directly toward the sizeable group. A campaign staff volunteer approached the man and asked him if he needed any help. The man did not respond and appeared to retreat momentarily. He then darted to the opposite side of the group where he promptly positioned himself in a threatening pose directly across from Dr. Rowland and the representative from the Turkish consulate. The Rowland Campaign volunteer, alarmed by the irregular behavior, immediately approached the man once again. The man did not respond or move initially, but upon further prompting by the campaign staffer, the man walked away visibly agitated. The man then raised his hands in a threatening manner toward Dr. Rowland and the businessmen and assumed confrontational stances, so the campaign staffer summoned the hotel security immediately.. The man seemed to be familiar with the hotel and was able to expeditiously exit by way of an unconventional path and was now holding what appeared to be a weapon in his hand.

911 was called and the man was followed up East Main Street to the Hyatt parking lot and was subsequently arrested on South Avenue. After a thorough search of the man,an open utility knife was found hidden on his person.

No one was injured in this incident. The businessmen and campaign staff were extremely pleased and appreciative to the hotel security and the fast acting and professionalism of the Rochester police department.

I checked the news releases and no one has covered the story, except for Gateway Pundit!

Why is the left so angry?

2010-10-30T18:24:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

I really don’t understand this. We have the Joy Behar meltdown which resulted in Sharron Angle getting $150,000 in donations. We have Bill Maher calling people who disagree with his far left extreme views “ignorant” and later going into a profanity laced rant. Finally, we have rank and file liberals having such angry tones in various blogs online.

Relax. Haven’t liberals lectured the tea party that anger is not the answer? So, why are their icons like Joy Behar going into hysterics and causing people like Sharron Angle to get so much money? And why are the rank and file liberals getting so frustrated? Don’t they take their own advice?

Liberals, don’t get so upset. Look at New York. Polls show that Status Cuomo is way up there. Rest easy. You’ll get more of the same. Big, bloated government, higher costs, more people who can afford it moving out of New York because of the out of control government waste. There are few businesses moving into New York unless they get corporate welfare, which means few reasonable private sector jobs. And now, Governor Paterson has announced a layoff of almost 900 state workers. The battle with the unions over that layoff will go beyond the end of Paterson’s time in office, so the mess will be dumped onto Cuomo. Cuomo likely has presidential ambitions. So, he’s probably going to push through on the layoffs so as to at least make it look like he tried to do something with New York’s fiscal mess. The attorney general’s office was a mere stepping stone, and Cuomo has places to go. It’s not like he would just stop at the governor’s office. That too will be a stepping stone. In fact, he’ll actually need to run for and win a second term in 2014 (not hard with those brass knuckles Eliot “the Steamroller” Spitzer says Cuomo has) so it’s not like he’s just going to do what he did in the attorney general’s seat. But then he could try for the White House in 2016.

Now, if you are concerned about state layoffs, there are two candidates that would probably stand against such things. They are Howie Hawkins of the Green Party and Charles Barron of the Freedom Party. Their solution is to just “tax the rich” and “cut tax cuts” even though “the rich” are in the best position to leave the state. I can’t tell you where Jimmy McMillan stands on this issue because his major issue is that “Rent. Is. Too. Damn. High.” And, McMillan has parlayed that into being parodied on Saturday Night Live and having a doll that looks like him. Mission accomplished for Jimmy McMillan’s “gubernatorial campaign” aka attempt at getting notoriety. Anyway, for those who want to tell Cuomo not to step all over state workers on his road to a possible future Democrat presidential nomination, I would think Hawkins or Barron would be your best bet.

Then there are the Senate races. Speaking of Joy Behar, there is another guy who likes to throw around the word she used. Unlike Behar who used it against a public figure (Sharron Angle), Schumer likes to use it on common, ordinary people such as flight attendants. See, Schumer likes big government regulation for other people, but not when it must also apply to him. He’s an elite Senator, you see. But liberals shouldn’t be too upset. Polls show New Yorkers want more of the same so they will likely be sending Schumer back. In fact, if Harry Reid does not win his seat (Nevada is not as “enlightened” as New York), Schumer could be the Democrats’ leader in the Senate.

Next we have Schumer’s rubber stamp who is great at letting Schumer do most of her thinking for her, Kirsten Gillibrand. He’s a lucky guy to get two votes in the US Senate. Polls show New Yorkers like Schumer so much that they will likely be sending his second vote back to the Senate for another two years. It’s funny how someone can change so much when they get a promotion. Kirsten Gillibrand as 20th district Congresswoman would hardly recognize Kirsten Gillibrand as Senator. People in the district she formerly represented seem to notice the difference. I’m not sure if she was a phony then or if she’s a phony now.

So, I just don’t get the level of anger from liberals, especially in New York. They’re going to get the same old. Then they can complain about the costs here in New York. They should be happy with the big government waste for which they will be voting. Better yet, they’re just going to vote for the boring nonsense Democrat candidates. But if they really want some new and seriously left leaning ideas, they have a plethora of third party candidates for whom they could vote.

Since liberals suggest that their policies have been good for America (such as the FAILED “stimulus” that was supposed to keep unemployment at or below 8%), they should have nothing to be worried about. All Democrat candidates should be running 20% ahead of their nearest opponent as the populace chants “hope and change” and “yes we can.” Oh, wait, we already had that. It was called 2008. Now the fad is over.

Scott Murphy Supporters Don't Care About the Law

2010-10-29T19:58:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

Scott Murphy's (D NY-20) campaign seems to be in a freefall as we head towards election day. From the campaign releasing an advertisement showing a digitized version of his opponent, Colonel Chris Gibson, riding an alligator and accusing Gibson of "feeding on the middle class" to supporters sending our mailers with ludicrous accusations, the stench of desperation is huge.

But a recent accusation on a mailer takes the cake. It accuses Gibson of being against tax cuts for small businesses. If that's not bad enough, the mailer gives absolutely no indication of what entity or organization paid for the ad. The law requires that mailers indicate the group responsible for the mailers. The Gibson campaign will be turning these over for investigation. Of course, this is an easy risk for Murphy supporters as they can make this accusation at the end of campaign season and deal with the consequences later --- when authorities will likely have to sort through numerous complaints from many campaigns. After a bruising election season, such things will not be covered by the media and with the results decided, the general public will not care after November 2nd.

Scott Murphy needs to denounce such tactics. He championed the so-called DISCLOSE Act, claiming he is for openness and transparency. It's truly sad that he does not seem to be so concerned about such things from his supporters now that he is running behind in polls.

But then, this is nothing new. Murphy claims he wants to help small businesses, get the government out of the way, etc. But he votes almost 90% with Nancy Pelosi's agenda.....which grows government and gets it involved with more and more of our lives, creating a terrible environment for small businesses.

Let's hope enough voters see through the Scott Murphy smoke and mirrors on November 2nd.

NY Election Projections Do Not Impact Larger Tea Party Movement

2010-10-29T13:39:00.001-07:00

by Bill Claydon

Regardless of what is said below, tea party members and others concerned about the direction of our country must get out to vote. We have some promising congressional elections even if not such good polling in statewide elections.We might be a minority in New York, but we should show ourselves to be as large of a minority as possible.

New York is a deep blue state. The majority of people continue to vote in status quo big government politicians, and there seems to be little outrage when things like the VLT scandal are revealed. Despite the loss of 1.5 million people (according to a print only article in the Albany Times Union a few Sundays back) for states with lower costs, the majority of voters seem to just want more of the same in mediocrity, high property taxes, and an environment where chosen businesses will only relocate to the state if they get enough corporate welfare. Of course, that corporate welfare ultimately costs the middle and lower classes in higher land taxes to pay for more government services, but people don’t care. As to the 1.5 million who left for less expensive states, as New York is one of the best states for welfare and Medicaid, they can be replaced by people who will continue to vote in the status quo. The burden to pay for this will of course fall on a smaller and smaller group of people who cannot afford to move out.

There was never a question that Andrew Cuomo was going to win the governor’s race as polls show. This is New York. New Yorkers seem to want the status quo(mo). A nobody with a “D” after their name could win. Yet for some reason, due to the frustration people are feeling, Cuomo’s statements in the 90 Minute Comedy Variety Show Starring Jimmy McMillan (aka the 2010 New York Gubernatorial Debate), occasionally seemed to reflect tea party ideals. Of course, they were packaged in a polished career politician style presentation. I doubt Cuomo will actually stick to these ideals once he takes over. What will be more interesting is to see the share of the vote given to Paladino. The self-proclaimed “steamroller” won nearly 70% of the vote against John Faso in 2006. Had the uninspiring and boring Rick Lazio remained on the ticket, I suspect he would have been lucky to get 25% of the vote. Paladino could win a higher share of the votes.

In one of the US Senate races, a majority of New Yorkers will likely choose Chuck Schumer, a man who likes big government regulations but does not agree with personally following them. When he was told to turn off his cell phone by a flight attendant, he called her a filthy name. Schumer’s rubber stamp, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, was sitting next to him when he did that and did not seem to have a problem with it. But then, she defers to Schumer most of the time anyway. Despite the Democrats protecting Gillibrand from any serious primary challenge, and despite her near total change in position from her days as Congresswoman from the 20th District, a majority of New Yorkers will likely vote to give Schumer what is basically his “second vote” (the only US Senator to have one) for two more years.

In the attorney general and comptroller races, it is likely that the candidate with a “D” after their name will win.

As an uber liberal state, the tea party in New York is small compared to other states. But let’s look at what the tea party has done in NY. The favored candidates by the dysfunctional New York State Republican Party to run for the governor’s race and the Gillibrand Senate seat were beaten by tea party favored outsiders who had to gather signatures to get into the primary. At least for a time, Cuomo did not have smooth sailing to the governor’s mansion. This is a step.

While other states which are more centrist or conservative leaning may see the status quo changed in the 2010 election, things will be far more gradual in New York. We can’t expect serious change in one election cycle. Change will take several election cycles here. Some might point to Massachusetts where Scott Brown won and ask why the same can’t happen in NY. First, Brown is a RINO. Second, he won in a special election where people from all over the country could concentrate their efforts. In 2010, New York is competing with almost every other state. Even some in New York may be helping candidates who are from states where they have a better chance to win. Certainly there is very little outside help coming in.

So, while liberals might be quick to use tunnel vision and focus on New York as some sort of barometer of tea party success, it’s just wishful thinking on their part. Rather than being discouraged, we can look at what is happening in other states. Clearly, not enough people have woken up in New York. But don’t worry. Just give the projected winners time to wake more people up. Conditions in New York will get worse. Whether people become part of the “tea party” movement or not, more and more will see that there is a problem as time goes on. A few more election cycles will be needed before New York catches up to much of the rest of the country.

Scott Murphy making same mistakes as Tedisco Campaign did in 2009

2010-10-28T22:08:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

New York's 20th congressional district has a huge Republican advantage in party registrations compared to Democrats. The 2006 election season was largely a Democrat year. Combined with the fact that all sorts of negative news came out about sleazy ex-Congressman John Sweeney, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was able to take the seat. In 2008, Gillibrand easily won reelection. In early 2009, then New York Senator Hillary Clinton was given the consolation prize of Secretary of State since she lost the Democrat primary to the so-called "hope and change" candidate. While Caroline "y'know" Kennedy was assumed to be the frontrunner to replace Hillary, ultimately the seat went to Kirsten Gillibrand. With the departure of Hillary, Chuck Schumer then TRULY became New York's senior Senator, even though he had held that title on paper since 2001. Gillibrand provided him with an extra perk in my view: she has basically given in to him for at least 90% of her voting decisions.

Anyway, in the race to fill Gillibrand's seat via special election, the Republicans nominated then New York State Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco. The Democrats had to pick through a bunch of no-name candidates. It was expected that Tedisco would handily win, and a Democrat had to run as the sacrificial lamb.

Scott Murphy, who had lived in Glens Falls for around three years by the 2009 race, happened to have a lot of money. He was chosen over nearly three dozen other candidates --- many of whom likely lived in the district far longer --- because of money.

While Tedisco spent years in the NYS Assembly and had a long record of accomplishments, the Republican National Committee came along and basically ran ads simply bashing Scott Murphy. Murphy was a nobody in the area....until the RNC gave him all sorts of free publicity. They created sympathy for the man with their attack ads. Even among conservatives, there was disappointment with these kinds of ads.

When Tedisco finally asserted control over his campaign and ran some positive ads, it was too late. The damage was done. Murphy had been given name recognition by the other side and generated sympathy.

What should have been a landslide victory in a heavily Republican district turned out to be too close to call. After seesawing for weeks, Murphy won by a few hundred votes and Tedisco conceded.

Fast forward to 2010. Despite Murphy's claims that he is a business man, cares about small business, wants to get the government out of the way, blah blah blah, he has established a record of voting nearly 90% with Nancy Pelosi to expand the federal government. District residents have felt he ignored them and instead listened to his union DC Democrat masters. His campaign war chest is loaded with donations from "safe" Democrats, Wall Street, big unions, trial lawyers, etc.

Murphy started releasing ads. Some ads were positive about himself, though they did not talk specifics about his extensive DC record supporting Pelosi's agenda. Other groups released ads touting the fact that Murphy has Sunday dinners with 52 family members as some sort of reason why he belongs in Congress. (Maybe if he is retired from Congress he could eat with those 52 family members every night of the week?) Another one touted the jobs he created, except they forgot to mention that many were in India.

But then Murphy started releasing attack ads against his opponent, Colonel Chris Gibson. One ad has a wild accusation about Gibson cutting Medicare by 75% when the Colonel has never been in Congress! Another one showed Gibson riding an alligator, gobbling things up. Murphy's ads tend to mention Gibson's name. Even in the "I approve this message" part of the ad, Murphy has been shown mentioning Gibson's name. He should have been saying "My opponent" if he had to reference Gibson at all. Strategically, it is just foolish for the incumbent to provide free publicity for the challenger.

Did Murphy learn anything from the 2009 campaign which greatly benefitted him?

Evidently not. Murphy's poll numbers are down into the final week of election season. Murphy needs to be "rescued" by Bill Clinton on the day before election day. (Bad idea to have such a high profile candidate this late into the race.) It just doesn't look good.

Should Murphy be toppled, some of this will be due to his advertising mistakes, along with ignoring many in his constituency and false statements about Colonel Gibson such as the Medicare accusation.

Has Scott Murphy jumped the shark, er, gator?

2010-10-27T18:01:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

Incumbent Democrat Scott Murphy (D-NY 20), one of the eight flip floppers on ObamaCare, released a rather entertaining ad this week, full of the standard Democrat class warfare fear inducing rhetoric. The ad reeks of desperation.

First it was announced that in the last days of election season, Bill Clinton has to take precious time to campaign for Murphy rather than spending it with other desperate Democrats. The next day, a Siena poll was released showing Scott Murphy’s opponent Colonel Chris Gibson nine points ahead of Murphy. In between these two announcements, Murphy released the following ad:

Murphy’s campaign press release presents this as if it’s something serious. The fast pace combined with the comical nature of the ad leave the viewer questioning whether the campaign really took any of these issues seriously when giving their okay for this ad. A slower pace with depressing music might have done a slightly better job delivering these tired old Democrat talking points.

The graphics were creative and the ad was likely expensive to produce. Of course, when one’s campaign gets all sorts of money from Democrats in “safe” districts, as well as Wall Street, trial lawyers, big business, big unions, and other liberal groups, he has money to throw around. And why wouldn’t he get this money? Afterall, Murphy was a good Pelosi lapdog, voting with her almost 90% of the time. He served as an excellent representative of Nancy Pelosi to New York’s 20th Congressional District.

The ad could basically be a template. It’s just standard talking points from the left, hoping to reach those who don’t bother to study the issues. Insert any Republican in there, make a couple of minor adjustments, and it could be used for any desperate Democrat’s campaign.

So let’s look at the ad. Colonel Gibson, a man who put his life on the line for our country, is shown riding an alligator, being accused of getting ready to “feed on the middle class.” Ridiculous, silly, and shameful, all at the same time. The first point is whining about Gibson wanting “tax cuts for the wealthy” and claims it will “add $700 billion to the deficit.” Excuse me? Supporting the extension of the Bush tax cuts across the board does not add $700 billion to the deficit. There is no guarantee that the government is actually going to take in an extra $700 billion in tax revenue as a result of letting the Bush tax cuts expire. In fact, with the Obama Recession and continued uncertainty from employers about the mess that is ObamaCare, tax revenue will continue to remain low. Employers aren’t sure about hiring and that means less production. Less money because of lack of employment means less business revenue, which ultimately means less tax revenue. But the government could actually reduce its spending and stop adding to the deficit. However, that will never happen with the likes of the Pelosi/Reid Congress that is addicted to spending.

To borrow an Obama phrase (and remember, I don’t have a teleprompter), let me be clear. The one who has actually added (over) $700 billion to the deficit is none other than Scott Murphy’s boss, Nancy Pelosi, and her buddy Barack Obama, when they rammed the FAILED “stimulus” through.

Then the ad accuses Gibson of putting “more tax burdens on the middle class,” as Gibson rides an alligator which gobbles up a family. Mr. Murphy was the one who put more tax burdens on the middle class. He claimed he wanted to extend the Bush tax cuts for the middle class. But then he voted with Speaker Pelosi and a majority of Democrats to adjourn Congress before helping the middle class. I can only conclude that getting home early to work on his campaign was truly more important to Mr. Murphy than helping the middle class. The vote was 210-209. Had he voted the other way, it could have been a tie and this may have prevented adjournment from happening.

Next it shows the gator gobbling up a building, accusing Gibson of wanting to eliminate the Department of Education. It follows by claiming this will raise property taxes by $800 per year. What? Eliminating mandates from faceless bureaucrats in DC will raise property taxes? Oh please. Maybe if the schools would get the salaries of their administrators (not to mention the sheer number of administrators and assistants) under control as well as other costs, New York would no longer have a reputation of having some of the worst property taxes in the nation. (Let’s not forget the costs of bureaucrat salaries, office space, supplies, equipment, energy, building maintenance, etc. saved with the elimination of a bloated federal department. That too could reduce additional deficit spending.)

As Gibson is accused of raising property taxes, the gator gobbles up a house, revealing scenery that just does not look like it belongs in Upstate NY. Well, that’s understandable. What can we expect from the gentleman from Missouri? Scott Murphy spent a great deal of time in Missouri. Having lived less than three years in Glens Falls, he then decided to run for Congress from New York’s 20th district. Therefore, with such little time in the area, I can fully understand how Murphy would approve an ad showing scenery that simply does not belong in Upstate NY.

Scott Murphy could have taken this final week to make the “closing argument” on a positive note. He should have touted his support for the “stimulus,” the second “stimulus,” ObamaCare, the Disclose Act, and all the rest of the Obama/Pelosi agenda he supported, which has added to the deficit and kicked the costs on to future generations. He could have explained why he felt this would be good for New York’s 20th district. He should have gone on a positive note. No, having dinner with 52 relatives is not a reason to send someone to Congress. But he should have been able to use his record to demonstrate why he feels he deserves another term. Instead, he chose to release a desperate ad full of standard Democrat fearmongering talking points. What a shameful and pathetic way to end the campaign season.

But at the same time, in my opinion it’s a very entertaining way to expose desperation…

NY-25 Republican Ann Marie Buerkle’s election signs defaced with swastika griffiti

2010-10-27T05:30:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Reports are coming out from NY's 25^th congressional district that Republican Ann Marie Buerkle's signs were vandalized last night. One of them was covered with swastikas. The signs were located on East Taft Rd in Syracuse, NY.

I suppose some racist ~~progressive~~ Tea Partier probably did it!

Why would Scott Murphy need Bill Clinton’s help?

2010-10-26T12:41:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

There are so few days between now and election day. There are numerous Democrat Senators and Congresspersons who need a boost in their sagging fortunes. Obama has been campaigning for various politicians, but his track record of campaigning for politicians such as Jon Corzine (ex-governor of New Jersey) and Martha Coakley (failed candidate for US Senate from Massachusetts) is not so good — in blue states, no less. Enter Bill Clinton. Clinton is doing marathon campaigning, causing liberals to get all nostalgic about his days as president. It’s so strange how they didn’t have that nostalgia just a couple of years ago when he had an opportunity to reenter the White House as a “tag along,” so to speak.

Anyway, with such limited time, Clinton has to be sent to the places where he is needed most. Democrats who will be coasting to reelection can’t take away from his precious time. In New York’s 20th Congressional district, we have a “nice guy” named Scott Murphy. He tells us he’s a businessman and he created jobs (forgetting to mention where those jobs were created) and that he wants to get the government out of the way. Sounds great. But there is one teeny tiny little problem. Murphy has this pesky and annoying thing called a record. It’s really a nuisance and something he didn’t have to deal with when he ran the first time around. Murphy’s record of voting for almost all of Nancy Pelosi’s big government binges sort of contradicts all this cutesy talk about supporting small business and wanting to get the government out of the way.

Murphy said he supported the so-called “stimulus.” (He was unable to vote for it because he was not in office at the time of the vote.) He voted for Cap and Trade. He flip flopped and voted for ObamaCare. He voted for the second stimulus for his big union buddies, “paying for it” by cutting future food stamps. (I thought Democrats like to proclaim they are for the poor?) He claimed he wanted to support extending the Bush tax cuts for middle and lower class Americans starting in 2011, but then voted to adjourn the House before this very important vote could take place. But we were told by liberals in their blogs that Murphy was absolutely going to win this race handily. Not only did people not want a Republican but they certainly did not want one that actually had tea party support!

Murphy’s campaign has lots of money from Democrat Congresspersons in safe seats. Afterall, he has carried their water and he was rewarded. He also has money from Wall Street, trial lawyers, and various other sources from outside the 20th district. He’s wealthy himself and can afford to loan money to his campaign. Surely money should do the trick. He could flood the airwaves with fables about his opponent, Colonel Chris Gibson. Murphy’s ads said Gibson cut Medicare by 75%. Gosh, isn’t that something? Colonel Gibson was overseas protecting our country, and has never been in Congress. But somehow, Murphy’s ad claims Gibson managed to do this. I’m not sure how that’s possible but Murphy’s ad said it happened.

So Murphy’s got money. He’s got this shtick about being a businessman who just wants to get the government out of the way (he just needs a laugh track to go along with it) and the liberals say he’s going to win. What more could he need? Well, evidently, something is going wrong. On the day before the election, Bill Clinton is taking precious time out of his very busy schedule to campaign with Scott Murphy. This is time that could be used to help other Democrats scrambling for votes. And if Murphy has this in the bag, why would Bill Clinton need to be sent here? It just seems so odd.

But maybe Scott Murphy and Bill Clinton will soon have something in common. I mean, Bill Clinton is out of office…

Breaking: Siena switched likely voter method for today’s Gibson/Murphy poll, but failed to point it out

2010-10-26T11:03:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Improbable 26 point Chris Gibson surge? Or, Siena switching their methodology for sampling likely voters? Brian Mann at NCPR is reporting that Siena changed up their likely voter methodology prior to the Siena Poll on NY-20:

Pollster Steve Greenberg says you can't draw an exact apples-to-apples comparison between this survey and the last one in September.

The reason is that Siena used a slightly different voter model in this survey, so that it's difficult to draw a clean contrast.

"I would say it's a Macintosh to a Red Delicious [comparison]," Greenberg says.

"This poll today has a more stringent 'likely voter' sample in it," he added.

Greenberg is confident that their methodology was able to capture a good snapshot of which voters are more likely to vote, and how that shapes the race now seven days from the November midterms.

The revelation is actually quite stunning, since Siena is pretty much the only non-partisan polling releasing data for NY. Just look at the numbers from some of the previous polling:

10/20 – Cuomo, 37 points over Paladino
10/17 – Maffei, 12 points over Ann Marie Buerkle
10/13 – Owens, 5 points over Doheny

If Siena had previously skewed so far Democrat in the Gibson/Murphy race, what surprises will we find on Nov. 2^nd?

Fall out of your seat Shocking! Chris Gibson surges 26 points to take 9 point lead in Siena Poll!

2010-10-26T08:04:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Chris Gibson, Republican candidate for NY's 20^th congressional district is soaring in the polls, he's overcome a 17 point deficit in the Siena Poll and is nearly leading by double digits. The poll, which now projects Gibson as the clear frontrunner, shows Chris Gibson up by 9 points.

Via Siena Polling:

"Chris Gibson has completely erased a 17-point deficit and now takes a strong nine-point lead into the final week of the campaign against incumbent Scott Murphy," said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. "Republican voters have come home to Gibson. He had led by only 27 points and now leads by nearly 60 points among Republicans. He has also won over independents, who had previously sided with Murphy by a nearly two-to-one margin, and now give Gibson a seven-point lead."

The results have some serious implications, not just for NY-20. Siena has been the only non-partisan polling covering NY congressional races and nearly all the polls have swung in Democrats favor. This latest poll may actually give credence to all the favorable Republican polling in the area. Just last week, Republican polling had Gibson with a small, conservative two point lead.

If areas Republicans are indeed surging and previous Siena polling has been favoring Democrats, than there might be something to the Republican polling showing Ann Marie Buerkle up one point as opposed to trailing by 12.

Spitzer’s Madam, Kristin Davis: "I won't dye my hair for votes" and plays the sexism card too

2010-10-25T10:07:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

The NY press corps, really, really wants Andrew Cuomo to be the next governor, which is why they are busy lampooning absolutely ever other candidate running against him, no matter how fringe those candidates may be. I called them out on Carl Paladino and on Jimmy McMillan. Now it's my duty to point out their latest victim, Elliot Spitzer's Madam, Krisin Davis of the Anti-Prohibition Party.

After last week's gubernatorial debate, NY Post published the following on Kristin Davis:

IT IS a mark of the low comic absurdity of last night's lolla palooza that there were only two people who sounded even minimally comfortable last night, and one of them was a hooker -- Kristin Davis, the former "Manhattan Madam" who talked about the danger of high taxes when she wasn't reading ghostwritten one-liners about the difference between her brothel and the MTA from a cheat sheet in her lap.

In the Daily Caller today, Kristin Davis responded and trumped NY Post's "she's a hooker" hand with the sexism card:

To downplay my performance by saying I used "cheat sheets" is just ridiculous. Can I not be blonde and smart? Can I not read the paper and have my own opinions on the issues? Perhaps my jokes were just too good.

I understand that being blonde, and a former madam, lends itself to a certain stereotype, and I constantly fight to dispel such misperceptions. It would probably be easier to just buy a $6.00 bottle of hair dye and go dark, which would immediately increase my IQ level. However, I refuse to give in to such stereotypes and change myself when it's what I'm saying that's important — not how I look.

Perhaps I should have just written notes on my hand. Or put them in my bra and pulled them out on stage. Now that would have generated press coverage.

Kristin Davis is correct, NY Post was being sexist. Why can't a woman and brothel owner be as articulate as her former clients? Does the press really need to stoop this deep in the muck?

But, the madam shouldn't get confused over the Post's low blow. It wasn't the hair thing; it was the prostitution business thing. Either way, I've got to thank Kristin Davis. She will now always be remembered by me, as the candidate who threatened to dye their hair for votes.

Bad Week for Congressman Murphy

2010-10-23T18:06:00.000-07:00

by Mary Ziegler

Mary has been an organizer for the local liberty movement since April of 2009 and is currently the organizer for Renewing the Republic, a group that encourages grassroots involvement in the political process. http://www.meetup.com/RenewingtheRepublic/

Part of me can’t help but feel sorry for Congressman Scott Murphy, to be so completely out of touch and overwhelmed by Chris Gibson. I believe Murphy labored under the delusion that his re-election was inevitable. Chris Gibson is a political neophyte, along with many on his staff. He also doesn’t have the millions of dollars Murphy has amassed from Wall Street donations and the leadership PACs of House members like Speaker Nancy Pelosi. However, Colonel Gibson is no stranger to battle after serving in the military for 24 years, deployed seven times, including four tours in Iraq. Gibson considers this a mission for which failure is not an option. Indeed the fate of the country depends on this race and others like it throughout the country.

This past week has been very bad for Congressman Murphy. A flawed Siena Poll released in August showed Murphy with a comfortable lead, yet his campaign still resorted to tired old political tactics. After a number of negative ads with false allegations (including Chris Gibson wants to ship jobs to China and privatize social security) two separate polls showed Murphy had blundered and Gibson now holds a lead of at least 2-3 points. Additionally momentum is clearly on Gibson’s side and voter turnout is a factor these polls can’t accurately predict.

Then there was the disastrous debate in Glens Falls on Tuesday night. Gibson supporters far outnumbered Murphy’s in his own backyard and the enthusiasm for Gibson is palpable. Not so much for Murphy. The Congressman stuck to the usual Democratic talking points and made the mistake of publicly declaring Gibson intends to ship jobs to China. In response the retired Colonel gave the best line of the campaign, “The only thing I’ve shipped overseas in the last decade has been myself and my paratroopers to fight for your freedom!” Murphy was floored and I believe the smug presumption that he would roll to victory was destroyed. Murphy’s red faced disdain contrasted sharply with the calm gravitas of Chris Gibson.

Thursday’s debate at WMHT didn’t go any better for Murphy. Unlike Tuesday night he managed to keep his cool, but the tension and nervousness on his face was obvious to all in the audience. Both men did fine in a field of the usual questions, but there was not the crushing blow Murphy needed to stop the momentum that continues to avalanche for Gibson or will convince voters that his record can be defended.

Perhaps the worst blow for Congressman Murphy this week came when Chris Gibson received the endorsement of the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses), and Murphy received a disastrous “F” rating (with a score of 42%) for his Congressional votes that negatively impact small businesses. Murphy has based his campaign around his experience as a successful businessman who will create jobs and fight for the livelihood of other small businesspeople struggling throughout the district. In reality there is little the multi-millionaire venture capitalist− who owns a company that has outsourced jobs to India− has in common with the hurting small businesspeople of the 20^th. The NFIB agreed and reminded Congressman Murphy that his votes will have a devastating impact on small businesses and the people throughout the 20^th Congressional District. They gladly endorsed Gibson.

I almost feel bad for Congressman Murphy being so overwhelmed by Chris Gibson, but then I remember that for over a year many of us had rallied, called, written emails, spoken to his staff, and done anything we could to make the Congressman listen to our concerns. This was to no avail. Congressman Murphy voted with Pelosi 91% of the time and on bills that will be devastating to the future of my children and the country, including Cap and Trade, the Stimulus Package, and the Health Care abomination.

For Congressman Murphy on November 2 the people will speak again and this time he will have to listen.

Seak a Peek into Dan Maffei's Campaign HQ - Video

2010-10-21T17:18:00.000-07:00

A couple weeks ago I drove past Rep. Dan Maffei's campaign headquarters in New York's 25th congressional district. It didn't look like anyone was inside, and there was only one guy standing outside. So I imagined what it must be like inside the campaign office of Dan Maffei....

Ann Marie Buerkle for Congress!!!

Cross Posted from The Lonely Conservative

My open letter to the Post-Standard: Applying the Post-Standard voting standard to the Post-Standard

2010-10-20T09:05:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

A recent editorial from the Post-Standard Editorial Board asks voters to "Assume the Worst" about Ann Marie Buerkle because of the private nature of some of the organizations spending in this November's elections…

Voters: Don't be suckers. Ask yourselves: Why are those donors hiding? Is it because they know they are hijacking democracy? What's on their agenda? Outsourcing more jobs to China? Establishing One World Government? Lowering taxes only for the rich? Eliminating consumer safety standards? Boosting corporate subsidies and bailouts?

Go ahead, voters: Assume the worst and vote accordingly — until the cowardly donors reveal themselves.

The charge seemed to waffle more on ad hominem than on actual logic. So, I decided to write the Post-Standard to see if the rule applies to them, or just the organizations they don't agree with.

Dear Post-Standard editorial board,

I have been puzzling over the editorial board's recent editorial "Assume the Worst."

According to the writers, one should assume the worst about an organization's political intentions when sources of funding are not made public.

Since the Post-Standard is a privately held company, I was wondering if you'd submit a list of your parent company's, Advance Publication, investors and the amounts that they have invested.

If you are unwilling to do so, I must by your editorial board's logic, assume the worst about Post-Standard's political views.

Best regards,
Sam Foster
Reporter for Pajama's Media

Somehow, I doubt that such a list will be forthcoming. Thus, without any sunlight to who is running the Post-Standard, we must "Assume the Worst" of the Post-Standard for publishing "Assume the Worst" and tell you not to vote for Dan Maffei, because he must be held accountable to a third party organization.

Voters: don't be suckers; apply the Post-Standard's voting standard to the Post-Standard then realize that it is rubbish.

Paul Tonko’s Idea of “Risk”

2010-10-16T15:11:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

Career politician Paul Tonko, who spent decades in the New York State Assembly and is now running for reelection as Congressman for NY’s 21st District, explained his idea of “risk” during Thursday evening’s debate with challenger Ted Danz.

Paul Tonko served in the New York State Assembly from the 105th District, which has been heavily Democrat. As an incumbent, he had a good chance to win every two years. In fact, he never lost. Paul Tonko, in a video clip from August regarding his very generous New York State pension on top of a fantastic salary as a US House member, said “people commit to an industry.” Very few people are in such a sweet position as Mr. Tonko was for over twenty years: having the ability to run race after race in a district heavily favoring his party so he was basically a guaranteed winner each time. Sure, people in the private sector may stay at a job for twenty years, but they are in the private sector and there is never a guarantee that the company won’t go out of business or have a layoff. Even working as a NYS Civil Service employee entails some risk of a layoff. But Mr. Tonko’s former “company,” the NYS Assembly, will never go out of business or lay off anyone in his former position. He had an opportunity to “commit to an industry” like very few others in this country. On the other hand, one could basically conclude from his statement that being a career politician is indeed like an “industry.”

After more than twenty years in the New York State Assembly, Tonko was appointed to head NYSERDA in 2007. When former Congressman Mike McNulty decided not to run again in 2008, Tonko and various other Democrats vied for the position in a primary. As NY’s 21st Congressional District is heavily Democrat, combined with 2008 being the year when so-called “hope and change” was on the ballot, obviously whomever won the Democrat primary for the seat would be the next Congressman.

Tonko resigned from NYSERDA to run in the Democrat primary in early 2008. He applied for his very generous state retirement for all his many years as a career politician in the New York State Assembly.

When Tonko won the primary in mid-September 2008, he effectively won the general election. He faced only token Republican opposition. As noted above, this was a Democrat year. Upon taking office as a Congressman in January 2009, Tonko continued to receive his $64,000 per year retirement from New York State while receiving a BASE salary of $174,000 in the US House. In August, the NY Daily News awarded him as New York’s top double dipper among its Congressional delegation.

When the question was brought up in Thursday’s debate, Tonko said he took a “risk” and had no idea whether he would win the primary. Thus he “had” to take his New York State retirement. First, nobody asked him to leave his nice job at NYSERDA. There were other Democrats and Republicans vying for the seat. It would NOT have been vacant even if Mr. Tonko had neglected to so valiantly offer his services. But the idea of taking a “risk” to pursue personal ambitions of federal office while receiving such a generous retirement is ludicrous. Some families with both parents working scrape by with far less than Mr. Tonko’s large state retirement. Some people who want to start their own business give up their jobs to devote full time to the startup without any kind of steady income. They save, live frugally, and pursue their dreams without dependence upon government. But Mr. Tonko couldn’t take a “risk” without a guarantee for himself at government expense.

Mr. Tonko assured listeners of the debate that he did indeed check with the US House of Representatives to see if it was okay to keep receiving his $64,000 state retirement while getting a six figure salary in the US House. They told him it was legal. So yes, as long as it’s legal, that’s all that matters for Mr. Tonko since he personally benefits. Who cares about what is right? New York State is in deficit because of decades of overspending, including years when Mr. Tonko served in the majority of the New York State Assembly. And Tonko is not exactly known for keeping a lid on spending…

Requesting a suspension of his cushy retirement or donating the money back to New York State would have been a great symbol to the people. The Times Union ran a story (print edition only) about people in Voorheesville with a moderate house paying $9,200/yr in taxes and leaving to get a better home in Oregon for taxes of $2,800/yr. The story pointed out that in ten years, 1.5 million have left New York State. Others were profiled who moved to various other states due to the property tax nightmare. Income taxes may not be the absolute highest in the country, but they’re certainly in the higher end. When considering property tax and a high end income tax, taxes are out of control in New York State, as is spending. But Tonko doesn’t mind double dipping. Some people don’t have any idea where they will be able to come up with their next mortgage payment or when they will find a new job. Some have faced foreclosures. But Tonko enjoys his fabulous US House salary and a fabulous New York State retirement while continuing to work. It’s rather difficult for someone in that scenario to identify with the concerns of common people facing serious problems in this recession. The fact that Mr. Tonko claims not to see a problem with this scenario says a lot about his judgment….which he must use when voting in the US House.

Tonko was asked to grade Obama during the debate. He gave Obama an A-. Perhaps Tonko might examine this video of Obama, class warrior in chief, and consider how Obama’s words might apply to his situation…

Scott Murphy’s third biggest donor? George Soros and China!

2010-10-15T12:42:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

I was aware that Dan Maffei had been the beneficiary of radical leftist George Soros, but not Scott Murphy. Then, when looking at a recent press release by Chris Gibson's campaign, I noticed that J Street PAC was Murphy's third largest donor with over $41,000 in donations.

Conservative blogger Yid with Lid released the details last month showing a copy of J Street's tax filing with George Soros as one of the top donors; a third of their revenues to be exact.

Streets leader, Jeremy Ben-Ami has always claimed that Soros gave the group some start-up money, but has not received any money since. That was a lie.

Tax forms I provided to Mr. Lake, reveal that Mr. Soros and his two children, Jonathan and Andrea Soros, contributed a total $245,000 to J Street from one Manhattan address in New York during the fiscal year from July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009 (see the document embedded below: page 13)

Soro's contributions represent a third of the group's revenue from U.S. sources during the period. Another donor, named Consolacion Esdicul. provided nearly half of J-Streets revenues during the period.

The billionaire George Soros is certainly not representative of NY 20^th congressional district, nor their small businesses. In fact, in an interview, George Soros claimed that he was having a wonderful crisis, while the US economy tanked.

What's worse? The other major donor to J Street is China. Last time I checked, China was also not representative of NY-20.

It all fits in line with the fact that Scott Murphy is the number one leadership PAC recipient. So much for your Washington outsider image Scott!

Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council slams NY Democrats Bishop, Hall, Murphy and Maffei

2010-10-13T10:51:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Many NY congressional Democrats are running as pro-small business. As I pointed out, it could come back to haunt them. However, since Democrats are spending a lot of money to sound Pro-Main Street, the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council came out with a rating today in the NY Post to put the matter to bed. The ratings show that NY's congressional caucus is abysmal and all of Upstate's favorite "pro-small business" democrats made the list.

Here are the ratings from the races you are interested in-

Tim Bishop has a great big ZERO.

"Still the One" we need in Washington; John Hall? Small Businesses say ZERO!

The great businessman turned congressman in NY's 20^th, Scott Murphy? He got a 7% rating.

Dan Maffei proved that yes, it is possible to score, but score lower than Scott Murphy. He put up a 5%.

Bill Owens topped out all of the congressional Democrats on the list at 23% and Michael Arcuri rated 18%. These guys are the big moderates by the way.

Their ads say that they are great for your businesses, but actual businesses say no way.

Do Obama and Holder Want the Military Voting?

2010-10-12T12:50:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

Obama is supposed to be president of all the people, whether they vote for his party or not. But what is interesting is that while Obama’s Justice Department worked tirelessly to tell Arizona they could not protect themselves in light of the failure of the Federal government to protect the border, Eric Holder does not seem to be acting so swiftly to ensure the military gets to vote. Sadly, some might conclude that ensuring the military’s right to vote is a low priority to the Obama Administration.

According to a Politico story, the Obama Justice Department has sued Guam to ensure military personnel get to vote. Wow! Way to go, Eric Holder! But there is one teensy tiny little problem. Obama and Holder are doing nothing about a state with a much higher population: good old New York. Has this administration, one that has tried to grow federal power so much, suddenly decided to let the states do their own thing just in time for an election which involves federal seats?

In populous areas of our own New York State, boards of elections have failed to send absentee ballots to the military. It’s one thing to have an extension to take primaries into account. But it has been nearly a month since the primaries. These boards of elections have failed the October 1st extension granted to them.

Besides New York City, counties such as Westchester, Putnam, Erie, and Niagara counties have failed to meet the deadline. Erie just so happens to be the county where Carl Paladino comes from. I have yet to see a comment from our own Democrat attorney general Andrew Cuomo, who happens to be running for governor himself, on the matter. The silence is odd, certainly.

One Democrat who has been speaking out about this is Chuck Schumer, himself on the ballot. He is demanding, and rightfully so, overnight mail to ensure these ballots are received in time. Kudos goes to Schumer on this matter. (Yes, see I can and do compliment a Democrat when it’s deserved.) Of course, Schumer is basically in a “safe” seat so he has nothing to worry about.

Another politician who is strangely silent about this is Democrat Scott Murphy (NY 20). Despite working to remove ROTC from Harvard (where he stayed at a dorm building in which Matt Damon also stayed….VERY important, I know), Murphy likes to make people aware that he supports the veterans. He even has a veteran running against him, Colonel Chris Gibson. I just checked Murphy’s congressional and campaign web sites. It’s so strange but despite his telling us he likes the veterans SO much, he has not expressed outrage over the failure of New York State in getting these absentee ballots out to our brave troops. How can this be?

Capital Region Congressional Races Are Pivotal

2010-10-08T21:28:00.000-07:00

by Gilhags

Cross posted on the Times Union Tea Party Blog

I’m not exactly sure what’s happening “out there” I don’t know who or where the problem started but I do know we’re out of time and if a solution isn’t found soon, we’re in danger of losing the races we’ve focused so much time and energy over the past several months. I would like to point out some things I do know.

First, we all love our country. So much so, we’ve decided to “get off the couch” and write a letter or carry a sign; some of us have even traveled to DC for a rally or two.

Second, we’re all right and wrong at the same time, the “Tea Party” isn’t a party. It’s America at her best. It’s all of us, Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Independent or whatever you feel you need to call yourself. It is people wanting a better life for themselves and their families. It’s what our founders intended. It is us taking pride in ourselves so that we can work towards a better future for our communities and country. It’s a movement that will stay at the forefront of American politics from here on out. So long as we agree to hold every elected official accountable, again, whether they be Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Independent or whatever whether they call themselves.

Thirdly, I feel confident in stating that we can all agree that Scott Murphy (D-NY 20) and Paul Tonko (D-NY 21) simply do not represent the values and needs of upstate New Yorkers and they must both be held accountable and voted out! As much as I hate to admit it, if we don’t do it this year, they will most certainly be more entrenched and un-beatable next election. Therefore, I recommend that we make room for our differences in the present but we “keep our eye on the prize” and work together to un-elect both Tonko and Murphy. Each has amassed huge amounts of money for their campaigns, compliments of Speaker Pelosi and the rest of the House leadership for their votes for Health Care. Let us send the message this year that your dirty political money can’t beat the will of the people.

Getting rid of Tonko and Murphy are priority number one! I also think the best way to accomplish that goal is to promote Gibson (running for NY 20) and Danz (running for NY 21), and we will hold them accountable. If elected, they’ll be on a very short leash and if they don’t perform, we will vote them out in two years, it’s that simple.

Ladies and gentlemen, we are in a pivotal and historic time. I urge you all to look at the NYS Board of Elections website; you’ll see almost every single elected office in this great state is held by a Democrat, we need to break through that “machine.” Our founders would be proud of what we’ve accomplished over the last two years. Let’s be able to say that same statement in three years from now. Let’s work together, please.

Democrat Matt Zeller for NY-29 threatens constituents to vote for him or lose their congressional district

2010-10-08T09:25:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster
Via the Corning Leader
H/T The Fighting 29^th

Two weeks ago, a report was released showing that NY was projected to lose two congressional districts once the 2010 census data was finalized. It's sad trend that has plagued NY for several previous redistricting years. Speculation has been that at least one of the potential vanishing districts would be in Upstate NY; most suggest NY-23 or NY-29.

Matt Zeller, Democrat running against Republican Tom Reed for NY's 29^th congressional district settled the matter in a threat to his constituents the other day. In speaking to the local Corning Leader, Zeller said:

"You'll get representation from Rochester or Buffalo or Syracuse," Zeller said Wednesday. "I've already been told by state Democrats if I win this thing, the seat stays pretty much the way it is. If I lose, this seat goes bye-bye. The people of Corning will be represented by someone from Rochester or Syracuse or Buffalo."

The comment would be innocent had he been warning that State Republicans would make his constituent's district disappear. No, Matt is clearly warning that his own party will punish the voters in his district if they don't vote Zeller in November.

Great motto guys: If Zeller can't beat 'em, NY Democrats will threaten them.

On a side note, it is amusing that Zeller warns his district that they might get a Rochester representative…when…he…is a Rochester representative.

NRCC Poll for NY-23 Doheny/Owens: Matt Doheny way ahead

2010-10-07T06:51:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster
Via Capital Tonight

This is a Republican poll so please take with a grain of salt. However, regardless, the poll has Doheny way, way, way, way ahead. To be precise, 51-37 or 14 points. While I think Doheny is likely to win, I think the poll is most definitely inflated given the fact that Owen's negatives did not prove very high in the poll conducted. His favorable/unfavorable rating is 42-23, while Dohney’s is 37-15.

Doheny October 2010 PAC Memo

Murphy Staff Visit Saratoga County Oct. 7th

2010-10-06T20:49:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

This is less of an opinion post (I said "less" and never said "not"….read the whole thing) and more for informational purposes. Here’s an email Scott Murphy’s (D-NY 20) office sent out announcing Congressional Field Offices throughout Saratoga County. Stop by if you have questions or concerns to discuss.

Below is an excerpt from the email:

————————

I am writing to let you know that tomorrow -Thursday, October 7th – my staff will be hosting twelve Congressional Field Offices in your area.

Here are the times and locations of the events:

1. Hadley Town Hall, 4 Stony Creek Road in Hadley, from 10:00 to 10:45.

2. Day Town Hall, 1050 North Road in Hadley, from 11:15 to 12:00.

3. Galway Public Library, 5264 Sacandaga Road in Galway, from 3:15 to 4:00.

4. Moreau Town Hall, 61 Hudson Street in South Glens Falls, from 10:00 to 10:45.

5. Saratoga Town Hall, 12 Spring Street in Schuylerville, from 12:15 to 1:00.

6. Mechanicville Public Library, 190 North Main Street in Mechanicville, from 2:00 to 2:45.

7. Halfmoon Town Hall, 2 Halfmoon Town Plaza in Halfmoon, from 3:15 to 4:00.

8. Wilton Town Hall, 22 Travers Road in Gansevoort, from 9:30 to 10:30 AM.

9. Village of Corinth Village Hall, 244 Main Street in Corinth, from 10:45 to 11:45.

10. Greenfield Town Hall, 7 Wilton Road in Greenfield Center, from 12:15 to 1:15.

11. Ballston Town Hall, 323 Charlton Road in Ballston Spa, from 2:45 to 3:45.

12. Round Lake Library, 1 Bayberry Drive in Malta, from 4:00 to 5:00.

My staff will be there to meet with you to discuss your concerns about local issues, what’s going on in Congress, and assist you with any problems you may be having with the federal government.

If you can’t make it this time, please email me, call my office at 581-8247, or check ScottMurphy.house.gov for future event announcements.

———————-

Yes, I do have a problem. I have a Congressman who I believe has demonstrated a lack of understanding of the US Constitution via some of his votes, especially for his flip flop vote on ObamaCare. Do you think Murphy’s staff could help me with that problem?

House Adjourned Without Helping Middle Class, Seniors

2010-10-06T09:38:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

The rhetoric is that Democrats care about the Middle Class, the poor, seniors, the children, etc. The rhetoric also claims Republicans supposedly only care for “the rich.”

Recently, a letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi was signed by some members of Congress, including our own local member, Scott Murphy, asking that tax cuts for dividends be extended. They are set to expire with other Bush tax cuts at the end of the year. The letter notes that many seniors depend on this income. Of course, Scott Murphy’s signature on that letter gives him the opportunity to claim he stood up for seniors.

But wait! What’s this? On September 29th, 210 Democrats voted to adjourn the US House so they can go campaigning to keep their jobs. They neglected to help the Middle Class avoid an income tax increase as the Bush tax cuts expire and they neglected to help seniors when it comes to dividends. Local Congressmen Murphy (NY 20) and Tonko (NY 21) were among the 210 Democrats who voted to adjourn and therefore skip helping seniors and the Middle Class. I’ll bet Murphy won’t remember that part if he says he stood up for seniors.

People have no idea what to expect. As it stands now, the Middle Class and seniors WILL face tax increases as the Bush tax cuts (remember the rhetoric said they were ONLY for “the rich”) expire. MAYBE this will be taken up in the lame duck session. Maybe there will be too many other things for Pelosi to worry about merely helping seniors and the Middle Class.

Has Nancy Pelosi forgotten how to use a majority? Goodness, she seemed to know how to use it when it came to putting our grandchildren in debt for the “stimulus.” She seemed to understand how to use it for ObamaCare. So if she can wield a majority to spend large amounts of tax money, can’t she use it to truly help the Middle Class and seniors by protecting them from having to give up a higher percentage of their hard-earned money?

Yes, we hear that the mean old Republicans are standing in the way of keeping the Bush tax cuts in place for the middle and lower classes because they insist on keeping all of the Bush tax cuts. (They should know that it’s improper to earn money beyond the threshold defined by Obama and the class envy types!) That excuse doesn’t work. The fact is that the Republicans don’t have the numbers to stop anything. Why do the Democrats care about whether such legislation has “bipartisan” support? If they feel this is the right thing to do, just get the numbers. No need to say “But some Republicans supported it…” Stick to their convictions and just get it through! Nancy Pelosi has the power to ram through whatever her heart desires. Yet, her heart does not seem to have enough desire to help seniors and the Middle Class keep the same percentage of their hard-earned money starting in 2011 as can now.

Imagine the benefits going into the final push of the campaign… The Democrats could get this through, and say THEY saved the Middle Class, spread “fairness,” and stuck it to the rich with absolutely NO help from the Republicans! So what are the Democrats waiting for? Call the House back into session and get it done! Then Nancy can get Harry to call the Senate back in session. Harry’s Democrats can pass it there, and Barry can sign it. Simple.

Why won’t the Democrats use their majority to help the Middle Class and seniors? Why would Scott Murphy sign a letter yet vote to close Congress before the request in the letter has been voted on? Gosh, I’m beginning to think the unthinkable….that all of this alleged “care and concern” about the Middle Class and seniors by Pelosi and her buddies is just empty rhetoric. Say it ain’t so!

Hoffman drops his third party run for NY-23 leaving Doheny and Owens to battle for the seat

2010-10-05T11:40:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Who better than RSM to explain why this is such a tragedy, but regardless, today Doug Hoffman has announced that he will end his campaign as a third party bid on the conservative ballot. Unlike Dede Scozzafava, who backed Democrat Bill Owens, Doug left with an endorsement of Republican Matt Doheny. After which, local Tea Party, UNYTEA, threw their support in for Doheny as well.

Via Adirondack Daily Enterprise:

Hoffman's name will still appear on the ballot on the Conservative line; however, Hoffman said Tuesday morning that he wants his supporters to vote for Republican Matt Doheny.

"Our nation is at a crossroads, and it is imperative that on Election Day we wrest control of Congress from Nancy Pelosi and the Democrat majority," Hoffman said in a prepared statement. "It was never my intention to split the Republican vote."

"Matt Doheny and I may have differed on some issues during the course of our primary race," Hoffman said. "Now, we must put those differences aside and do what is best for our nation."

Hoffman spokesman Rob Ryan wouldn't elaborate on the statement Tuesday morning.

Sources close to the story have said repeatedly over the past month that Hoffman's campaign didn't have the financing or staff to be viable this year. His campaign offices in Plattsburgh and Watertown closed after the primary. His main office on Saranac Lake's River Street has usually been closed since then, although there has been some activity visible over the past week.

"My reaction is, Doug has done the right and noble thing," said Mark Barie, chairman of the Upstate New York Tea Party, when informed of Doug Hoffman's decision. "By suspending his campaign, he is giving Matt Doheny a clear shot at the incumbent, Mr. Owens, and increased the likelihood that Matt Doheny will be victorious on Nov. 2."

You will note that Hoffman's name will still appear on the Conservative ballot. While the Libs will try and make this some sort of potential GOP spoiler and while Hoffman will take a few votes, I think the argument is unjustified.

Best of luck to you Doug.

Gillibrand Vulernable in New York?

2010-10-04T07:38:00.000-07:00

Real Clear Politics thinks so. They have a new article chronicling some of the incumbent Senator's problems in her re-election bid, even though she is in one of the most blue states in the country. A former "Blue Dog" style Democrat the tacked hard to the left after being appointed to Hillary Clinton's old seat last year. She faces a tenacious challenger in Joe DioGuardi-- so it is possible that she might lose.

One poll has Gillibrand with only a one point lead. Downstate liberals distrust and look down on this Upstate-living former "moderate" Congresswoman. Furthermore, Upstaters don't like her hard-left new persona and are tired of the Democrats wrecking the state. So it looks like there's a weakness. But RCP points out:

Let's be clear up front: A straight-up Republican win would be unheard of. No Democratic senator has ever been defeated for re-election in the Empire State, and the last time a non-Democrat won an open seat in New York in a two-way race was in 1958. The typical formula for a non-Democratic win in New York is to have a Republican running on the Liberal Party line who splits the anti-Republican vote with the Democrat; this is in part how Alfonse D'Amato and James Buckley won their Senate races. This won't happen this year - there isn't even an independent Liberal Party in New York anymore.

But it appears that she is trailing big time in Upstate, which has far fewer people than Downstate. However, if enought Downstaters either don't turn out or do not pull the ballot for her she is at least theoretically vulnerable. He'd have to win at least 30% in New York City according to the article to stand a chance-- which it says is possible:

For DioGuardi to equal Pataki's 2002 vote share in New York City, two things have to happen. First, whites have to be excited about voting for him. I think that's possible for two reasons: (1) whites who didn't live on Manhattan were never crazy about Obama in the first place and are presumably ready to cast a protest vote against him today and (2) DioGuardi has an Italian surname. Having attended more than my share of the DiFranco family reunions on the maternal side of my family, I can only attest that the cultural affinity is still pretty important in the Italian-American community. This will help DioGuardi in parts of Queens and in South Brooklyn (and in Staten Island, a notable Republican bastion that is off the map). In fact, this is probably a large reason why DioGuardi is getting 35 percent in the SurveyUSA poll while the other Republican candidates polled are receiving the 25 percent a Republican customarily receives (remember, Paladino is running against a Cuomo).

The article says a DioGuardi win is unlikely. I agree. But it certainly isn't impossible.
Cross posted at Pundit Press.

Carl Paladino to Post reporter Fred Dicker: “I’ll take you out:” Will it help or hurt Paladino?

2010-09-30T10:55:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Last night, NY Gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino gave a state-wide audience a taste of why he's referred to as "Crazy Carl."

NY Post reports:

Instead of responding to Dicker's question, Paladino accused him of sending a "goon" to stake out his former mistress at the home where she lives with their love child.

Sunday's Post featured a front-page story about Paladino's wife, Cathy, and his ex-lover, Suzanne Brady. It included an exclusive interview with Cathy Paladino.

"You send another goon to my daughter's house and I'll take you out, buddy!" Paladino told Dicker.

When Dicker asked how he planned to do that, Paladino replied, "Watch!"
"Are you threatening me?" Dicker asked.

When the candidate's aides jumped in to separate the men, Paladino, referring to Dicker, told them, "F- -k him."

Paladino's campaign manager, Michael Caputo, then got involved, and began arguing with Dicker.

Jammie Wearing Fool thinks it's over for Paladino, but there are those that disagree…

"…at a time when voters are furious at government, might Paladino's confrontation actually give him a boost?"

That's the Washington Post for your information. In fact, WaPo is conducting an unofficial poll and so far, there is no plurality of opinion on a topic most would conclude with a "hell yeah it hurts Paladino."

But NY is the place John Steinbeck once penned "neither good nor bad but unique." It's the home of mega-radio shock jock Howard Stern. NY is a place where polling shows that a majority of people in the state had no problem with Paladino's distasteful emails. It's a place where sometimes, the bad guy is hero.

Read the Observer interview on Paladino yesterday and you get a different picture than the one hitting NY newsstands this morning; a meme where the Paladino campaign is playing a calculated, but high risk game of political Russian roulette from a campaign manager who once advised Boris Yeltsin.

Honestly, Paladino has run for office before, but his name was Tom Golisano. The quiet, upstate reformer was drowned out by the distant NY press. Paladino throws a grenade everyday, ensuring a headline everyday, but are they useful? Has Golisano-ism resurrected in Paladino, but Jerry Springer style? Was his outburst a display of rage over the paparazzi stalking of his ten-year-old daughter as Politico pens, Crazy Carl being crazy, or a political calculation on the same day Gallup declares that distrust in the media is at an all time high?

November will tell all.

Paladino to The View’s Joy Behar: “She’s suffering from a sudden hot flash”

2010-09-28T12:57:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster
Via WGRZ

I'm sure most of you may not be familiar with the brazen Carl Paladino politicking style. If you want to know how this little known businessman from Buffalo won a landslide primary victory over Rick Lazio and why the Democrat Andrew Cuomo can't find an angle of attack on Paladino here's an example for you.

Buffalo's WGRZ reports:

On Monday's edition of the ABC talk show, co-host Joy Behar said Paladino "could win if all his illegitimate children vote."

The Paladino campaign fired back with the following statement:

"Joy Behar should be absolutely ashamed of herself for referring to Carl's daughter as illegimate. She's a child and does not deserve that kind of treatment from a woman who should know better. That's catty, it's pissy and strikes of something that someone would say when suffering from a sudden hot flash. The only person here who's illegimate is Joy Behar's hairstylist. Joy is off carl paladino's christmas card list."

You can watch Joy's comments on The View here.

Paladino; love him, hate him, but the man certainly knows how to say something that people are going to be talking about.

Murphy’s big campaign messaging confusion: Where was Murphy again when aide Josh Schwerin called him an Independent?

2010-09-23T10:36:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Via Capital Confidential

"Everyone knows that Scott is an independent voice in Washington," said Murphy's aide Josh Schwerin.

Even as these words from the Murphy campaign found their way into the print media, Scott Murphy was attending a DCCC dinner with President Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Not only was Murphy in attendance, but he was singled out by President Obama as someone who's reelection was critical to guarding his agenda.

But of course, he is an "independent voice" in Washington.

So who didn't read the memo? Murphy's aide Josh Schwerin or Scott Murphy?

More on Scott Murphy's disconnected campaign…

Communications director for Chris Gibson, Dan Odescalchi sent out the following fact check through the Gibson press releases.

Murphy's Rhetoric: Scott Murphy stated in a May 27, 2010 press release that the "key to our economic recovery will be the growth and success of our small businesses. We must cut taxes to spur innovation and give relief to our hardworking middle-class families."

Our Reality: Scott Murphy's position on renewing the People's Tax Cuts hurts small businesses. 75 percent of small businesses are organized in such a way that they pay taxes under the individual tax rate structure. Furthermore, about 68 percent of all manufacturers are organized to file at the individual rate so the impact will be felt by these critical job creators.

Murphy's Rhetoric: On March 24, on the floor of the House of Representatives, Scott Murphy said of the government takeover of healthcare, "This bill is going to help our small businesses… "

Our Reality: But again, his rhetoric does NOT match his record. On August 9th, the Health Benefits Administrators in the region received notice that MVP is looking to increase rates by 30% to 35% because of "… the benefit expansions required by Federal and state health care reform legislation." Many local area businesses rely on MVP to provide healthcare benefits for their employees. National trends echo what we are seeing here in the 20th district.

Murphy's Rhetoric: Of the Healthcare bill, Murphy said, "This bill is going to help our small businesses…"

Our Reality: Businesses will have to send Form 1099s for every business to business transaction of $600 or more. While Murphy has introduced legislation to address this issue, it is like starting a fire and then taking credit for calling the fire department to put it out.

The Congressman is wrong. By increasing the cost of providing healthcare coverage, adding more regulatory burdens and further taxing our small businesses, his votes deter job creation and small business expansion.

Quietly: NY Senate race goes into play as Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand maintains small lead over Joe DioGuardi

2010-09-23T08:30:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster
H/T to Lonely Conservative

Not one, but two polls are out showing the Gillibrand/DioGuardi race has dramatically tightened and Kirsten Gillibrand, known by Senate Democrats as "the Hottest," is now looking vulnerable.

First, a poll by Survey USA shows Gillibrand leading by only a single point:

Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC, trails elsewhere. Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out. Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.

Today's Q-Poll has Gillibrand under 50% (aka she's in the "Danger Zone") and leading by only six points:

In numbers very similar to the ones released yesterday on the governor's race, Quinnipiac University's data out this morning shows Democratic Sen. Kristen Gillibrand leading barely-known GOP rival Joe DioGuardi by just six points.

Gillibrand leads 48 percent to 42 eprcent, and the pair is split basically evenly among independent voters, the survey found.

Gillibrand wins among DEmocrats, 86 percent to 9 percent, and DioGuardi has 88 percent of Republicans to 8 percent of independents.

This compares to a 15 point lead in the Q-Poll less then a month ago. I'm not sure what's gotten into the water in NY, but for Conservative voters it may be the smell of blood. It is interesting though, thanks to previous polling NY was not considered in play. Now that the polls flip, how long will it take for folks to catch on?

Siena Poll for NY-29: Tom Reed leads Democrat Matt Zeller by 14 points

2010-09-23T06:05:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Via NY Daily News:

By Siena's tally, Reed is up 44% to 30% over Zeller, but fully 26% of voters have yet to make up their minds.

The region has a significant Republican enrollment edge, noted Siena's Steve Greenberg. But "While each candidate has virtually the same percentage of voters who have favorable or unfavorable views of them, Reed is unknown to more than half of the voters and Zeller is unknown to more than three-quarters. Only 16% of voters have seen or heard a Reed commercial and only about one in ten have heard or seen an ad for Zeller."

The real Scott Murphy seen partying at the Roosevelt Hotel with President Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Charlie Rangel

2010-09-22T19:27:00.001-07:00

By Sam Foster

"the last election was about a changing of the guard. This election is about guarding the change."

That's how President Obama summed up his efforts this evening at the Roosevelt Hotel in NYC. He was at a DCCC fundraising event for the NY Democrat congressional delegation.

All the big leaders from Washington were present including Nancy Pelosi and the ethically deprived Charlie Rangel. Yes, all the big supporters of the Obama agenda, those who need "guarding" as Obama put it, were present. So when Obama singled out Murphy as one of the Democrats present at the event, who would be surprised? That is unless you've seen Murphy's ads or watched Murphy pretend to be disassociated with the Washington agenda.

If anyone wonders what Scott Murphy is truly about, the real Scott Murphy was at the Roosevelt Hotel this evening, in NYC.

Breaking: Court throws out John Hall suit challenging Nan Hayworth’s spot on the Independence ballot

2010-09-22T14:04:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

This afternoon, the court hearing John Hall's suit against Nan Hayworth was thrown out of court. The suit was a political maneuver to bump Hayworth off of one of the third party lines.

I wrote about Hall's political motivation for doing so earlier and despite the shrill, over-hyped accusations by leftwing bloggers, Hayworth prevailed in clearing her campaign.

Nan Hayworth's press release had the following statements:

"It's highly unfortunate that during the course of the lawsuit, without any foundation whatsoever, Hall's campaign accused some very well-meaning people – mainly notaries – of potential fraud and misconduct. That conduct simply didn't happen," said Hayworth campaign manager John Hicks. "It's also unfortunate that this issue has taken up not only the court's time and resources, but has also distracted from the urgent matters we face in District 19 involving jobs and the economy."

Hayworth communications director Douglas Cunningham said, "I think we now know why John Hall was so eager to disseminate fabrications about what was actually going on in the courtroom in Albany. He would rather talk about anything else except his record, which is one of lost jobs and failed big-government programs. I think it's clear what the voters want to focus on, and that's renewing our economy, fixing the abysmal jobs picture and restraining a government that's too big and too costly."

Read the Judge's decision below:

Matt Doheny prevails in NY-23, waiting to hear if Doug Hoffman will mount a third party run

2010-09-22T12:08:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

This just in, Matt Doheny just clinched the Republican ballot in NY-23. We are still waiting to hear if Doug Hoffman still plans on mounting a third party challenge.

Via Watertown Daily Times:

Republican Matthew A. Doheny is the presumptive winner of the GOP primary for the 23rd U.S. Congressional District.

Mr. Doheny, Watertown, has a 769-vote lead over opponent Douglas L. Hoffman, Saranac Lake.

With 804 absentee ballots left to be counted, Mr. Hoffman would need more than 98 percent of the votes.

Mr. Doheny added 76 votes in St. Lawrence County and 12 in Lewis County on Wednesday afternoon. He currently leads 16,016 to Mr. Hoffman's 15,247.

Oneida County started counting absentee ballots today, but a spokeswoman said results will not be available until Friday. Election boards in six district counties begin counting absentees Tuesday, with St. Lawrence and Clinton counties starting today. Lewis County starts Thursday.

I will check with the Tea Party to see if Mark Barie will endorse Matt Doheny.

Hall’s constituency is Nancy Pelosi? John Hall calls in sick to NY-19 debate with Nan Hayworth

2010-09-22T06:40:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

With Republican Nan Hayworth the projected leader in NY-19, it would seem strange for Democrat incumbent John Hall to send someone else to debate Nan Hayworth, but that is exactly what happened yesterday.

According to Nan's press release:

The Dutchess County Association of Realtors invited both Dr. Nan Hayworth, Republican nominee for the 19th Congressional district, and Congressman John Hall (D) to a debate that was set for today in Poughkeepsie, but only Hayworth showed up. The debate covered a range of issues affecting small businesses and the Realtor community.

John Hall did not attend, and the Mayor of Beacon, Steve Gold, read Hall's answers in his place.

The House of Representatives did not meet today for votes or other legislative matters.

John Hicks, Campaign Manager, released this statement:

"This is another example of the absentee John Hall whose only constituency is Nancy Pelosi. Debates and the free exchange of ideas are a cornerstone of the American democratic system. Despite assurances from Hall himself and his staff that there would be a debate once the Republican nominee was named, Hall ducked out."

Meanwhile, Hall wants OFA to canvass and make up for his campaign shortcomings.

Carl Paladino gets big bump in race against Andrew Cuomo in new Quinnipiac Poll

2010-09-22T06:31:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster
Via Capital Tonight

The race for NY Governor just got exciting. Today's Q-Poll has Crazy Carl Paladino and Andrew Cuomo neck-and-neck with Cuomo leading 49-43.

Today's Q poll finds GOP gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino has dramatically reduced the double-digit lead long enjoyed by his Democratic opponent, AG Andrew Cuomo, coming within just six percentage points of the once-comfortable frontrunner and turning this contest into a real horse race.

In a head-to-head match-up among likely voters, Cuomo leads Paladino, 49-43. Seven percent of voters are still undecided and 21 percent who said they prefer one candidate to the other said they might yet change their minds before the November election.

Also in the poll, Paladino is a man's man, polling 49-46 among men.

Ok, poll data out of the way. Here is the inside scoop on two meme's.

First is NY Times Nate Silver's point that these polls are including Rick Lazio running under the conservative banner.

Still, there is one clear flaw with this poll, which is that it did not include an option for Mr. Lazio, who – even as he lost to Mr. Paladino among Republicans — won the Conservative Party's nomination for governor and is expected to remain in the race. The Conservative Party is a big deal here in New York because of fusion voting, which allows multiple parties to endorse the same candidate on the ballot (Mr. Cuomo, for instance, is the nominee of the Democrats, as well as the liberal Working Families' Party). Some voters in New York look toward the endorsements of the Conservative Party and the Working Families' Party when filling out their ballots, and they can sometimes tip the outcome in a race.

This one is a red herring argument and I'm sorry Nate, you understand the term fusion voting, but not how it plays out in this election. Here is why.

The pick of Rick Lazio on the Conservative Party line was purely a political move not an ideological one. A Party's position on the ballot is determined by the party votes in the gubernatorial race, the Conservative Party thought that Lazio would be the Republican candidate so they bet on Lazio. By doing so, they ensure that the Conservative line stays near the top. However, there is no confusion in NY that Carl Paladino is the more conservative candidate, thus the idea that Lazio's Conservative ballot line is going to draw significant conservative votes away from the more conservative candidate is a bridge too far. Still, it could mean the difference in a very close race, but it means little in polling.

The other proof is the Republican primary itself. The fact is that many, myself included, vote the conservative line but are registered Republicans. Thus, many people who normally vote the conservative line were present giving Paladino a landslide victory in the primaries.

The second meme, is that Cuomo's team is completely flummoxed by Crazy Carl. They don't know what to do and every step they take proves it.

Maggie Haberman reports:

The Daily News writes up an account of a meeting with Cuomo yesterday as his team tries to figure out the best line of attack against Paladino:

"If a guy says you have no cojones, how do you punch him back, call him an a--hole?" the Democratic gubernatorial candidate fumed in a secret talk to his team, one insider said.
"We have all this stuff [on Paladino] and we're on the defensive," Cuomo groused, the insider added.
While Cuomo's adviser Ben Lawsky and his communications team of Marissa Shorenstein, Phil Singer and Josh Vlasto listened, the unhappy candidate wondered aloud what Paladino's pit bull campaign manager Michael Caputo would do with similar dirt.

So far, Cuomo's team has stuck largely to an old playbook of identity politics and elevating Paladino's perceived negatives, without doing much more to hang flesh on the bones of the Democrat's own ideas or his public persona.

It's been a decidedly mixed bag - a letter put out by former Mayor Koch, former Republican Sen. Al D'Amato and former state Comptroller Carl McCall got a mixed reception in terms of the message, given that all three are longtime politicians and Cuomo is running as the anti-Albany reformer.

Of course, word of Cuomo wanting to call Paladino 'an a--hole' getting out publicly may have accomplished the Democrat's aim of saying what he wanted through other people, and letting supporters know they're taking Paladino seriously.

However, Paladino and his campaign manager Michael Caputo have been answering every punch with a roundhouse kick, and in their own voices. And as a smart reader noted, a 'war council' meeting, if it really was prompted just by an angry letter, seems like a strong reaction to a pretty simple campaign tactic, while word of the meeting leaking out appears indecisive.

Brace yourselves, hurricane Carl is touching down in NY.

Via Memeorandum

Ted Danz (NY-21) Speaks to the Schoharie County Young Republicans

2010-09-21T19:46:00.000-07:00

Congressional candidate for the NY-21 district Ted Danz spoke to the Schoharie County Young Republicans on Monday, September 20. The Young Republicans recently took part in a sign wave for Mr. Danz on Saturday, September 18 in Cobleskill.

Mr. Danz hails from Guilderland and is a successful entrepreneur. He is a veteran of the US Navy and is married with five children.

Mr. Danz told members of the club that "We've got to turn this economy around" and that "I would spend $117 million if we got big industry to come in from another country."

As far as the government was concerned, Mr. Danz was emphatic: "Every time the government gets involved with something it gets screwed up." and that "We've got people making deals that aren't dealmakers. We have politicians making deals with big business and big business is eating them alive."

Chairman Timothy Knight of Richmondville was firm in his commitment to the Danz campaign. "I want him to win Schoharie County," he said, "Tonko only won it by 400 votes." Knight plans to put up signs for Mr. Danz around the County.

Election day is Tuesday, November 2nd.

http://www.teddanzforcongress.com/

Searching for a reason to vote Matt Doheny instead of Doug Hoffman in NY-23

2010-09-21T14:15:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

After last Tuesday's primary failed to produce a clear winner for the Republican ballot line for NY's 23^rd congressional district, we now wait for tomorrow's count of the more than 1,900 absentee ballots that remain outstanding. However, regardless of the outcome tomorrow, I do not relish the decision that sits before the conservative voters of NY-23.

If Doug Hoffman loses the Republican primary, should conservative voters continue support for Doug in a three-way race or pick up the banner for Matt Doheny? Already, local UNYTEA leader Mark Barie is flirting with the idea of switching sides and while I generally feel strongly about voting for the most conservative candidate, I must admit that the allure of defeating Bill Owens by supporting Doheny is a tempting proposition. I can't tell the voters of NY-23 what is best for them, but here are the issues that I think conservatives are dealing with in weighing their support for Doug Hoffman.

First of all, let's be clear on one thing, I have been staunchly opposed to Matt Doheny's candidacy and not because I love Doug Hoffman. To date, I've never written in support of Mr. Hoffman. Here is why I've been vocal in opposition to Matt Doheny:

While the media touts how conservative his views are, he has no voting record. We are left with his word and the endorsements of the local GOP. While Doheny's word is unverifiable, the local GOP chairmen have a terrible record in backing RHINOs. Not just the ACORN sponsored Dede Scozzafava, but former congressman John McHugh who was one of eight Republicans to vote in favor of Cap and Trade before joining the Obama administration.

Doheny hasn't broken from the Republican pack either, he's been careful not to alienate party bosses with an admission of guilt in financially supporting Scozzafava. He also put a large amount of political donations to work to get local Republican support. But, he also gotten on the ground and went out to meet the voters. He's done the best job campaigning that one can possibly do.

Is Doheny a true conservative, willing to buck the Republican's should Boehner come up short on items of critical importance like Repeal and Replace? The answer is, no one knows, but there are valid suspicions.

However, a Doheny win over Doug Hoffman will prove me wrong in his electability. I've argued that his former BUI charges will be toxic to the NY-23 voters. Clearly, voters feel differently and strongly about it too or they wouldn't have made the trip to the primary polls.

For a week now Doug Hoffman has been in hiding, dodging reporters and supporters. While, I don't doubt Hoffman's ability to buck the Republicans, he has not stepped up in the arena of leadership and being down in the vote count is a critical time to take ownership of your campaign, especially if you plan on mounting a third party bid.

It is hard to imagine that conservatives were not showing up en masse for NY-23 elections and that election may swing for Doheny, conservative votes included. Ought Doug Hoffman let the voter's will decide NY-23?

Meanwhile, the left is salivating at a NY-23 conservative meltdown. Comments from liberal sites like TPMDC that sound like:

Oh please, do let Hoffman split the Conservative ballot again and give Dem's a good shot at retaining hold of this seat.

Give one pause to choose wisely where to place one's vote.

So do conservatives take a chance on Matt Doheny? An untested, but avowed conservative? It sounds like such and easy choice, so why do I get that sucker feeling?

Siena polling for NY-24: Arcuri leading Hanna by 8

2010-09-20T06:56:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster
Via Siena Poll

Siena polls continue to confound. Today's poll released has Democrat Mike Arcuri leading Republican challenger Richard Hanna by 8 points. What is most confusing is that Arcuri is getting a boost from his Obama stimulus vote.

From the poll:

Six weeks before Election Day, Representative Michael Arcuri holds an eight point lead,
48-40 percent, over Republican challenger Richard Hanna in this hotly contested rematch of the 2008 race that Arcuri won 52-48 percent. On a series of six issues, voters give Arcuri the edge on four, Hanna the edge onone, and on the issue of taxes, voters see it as a toss-up, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters released today. Voters support President Obama's stimulus proposal and his proposal to
eliminate tax cuts for the wealthy. They are evenly split on whether to implement or repeal the recently passed federal health care reform legislation.

I don't know whether this is good news for Mike Arcuri or not, Siena had Lazio and Paladino neck-and-neck just before Lazio was trounced.

Video: Ann Marie Buerkle's 'Rally for Victory' Speech

2010-09-18T17:56:00.000-07:00

Here's the complete, uncut video of Ann Marie Buerkle's Constitution Day speech at her rally for victory. I have to tell you, this woman really gets it. One thing you don't see in the video are the number of hands that went up when Buerkle asked how many people had never been involved in a political campaign before.

If you don't know who Ann Marie Buerkle is, or what she stands for, get comfortable, grab a drink and watch this video.

The crowd was quite lively, and quite a few families showed up. My kids were running around having a good ole time.

This is our chance to send a conservative woman from New York to Congress.

ANN MARIE BUERKLE FOR CONGRESS!

Read more at The Lonely Conservative. Also be sure to check out the video and photos of the infiltrators Dan Maffei sent into the rally.

Poll for NY's 19th congressional district: Daily Kos Poll shows Nan Hayworth in neck-in-neck race with John Hall

2010-09-15T21:08:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster
Via NRO

A Daily Kos poll is showing NY-19 as a toss-up.

Jim Geraghty at NRO writes:

On Election Day 2008, Barack Obama carried New York’s 19th Congressional District, 51 percent to 48 percent. The incumbent Democrat, John Hall, won by a healthy 59 percent to 41 percent margin.

Today, Daily Kos releases a PPP poll of the district showing incumbent Hall trailing GOP challenger Nan Hayworth, 42 percent to 44 percent; Hall has a very modest lead over another GOP challenger, Neil DiCarlo, 42 percent to 39 percent.

And Obama is at 39 percent approval, 56 percent disapproval within the district.

Pollster Tom Jensen elaborates:

[I]ntensity isn’t really the issue. We’re finding an electorate in NY-19 that supported Barack Obama by a point, not much of a drop from his 3 point win there. … The problem in NY-19 is that Obama voters have soured on him to a much greater extent than they have nationally. Only 75% of his supporters still approve of the job he’s doing and his loss of support is rubbing off on Hall. With the Obama voters who now disapprove of or are ambivalent toward him Nan Hayworth has a 56-28 lead. Nationally our last poll still found 86% ofObama voters approving of him so this is an unusually disenchanted district.

This isn't any Republican push poll either. It's the ultra-liberal Daily Kos. If they show Hall in trouble, then it's probably the best case scenario.

NY Primary results for NY's 23rd congressional district; No clear winner yet, too close to call

2010-09-15T05:47:00.000-07:00

by the Left Coast Rebel
Cross Posted at Left Coast Rebel

Call in the attorneys, perhaps. It seems things (once again) in NY 23 have come down to a razor-thin race and perhaps may lead to a stall of sorts. Upstate NY's NCPR:

(11:56 pm) Matt Doheny appears to have stopped short of a victory speech in Watertown, but the crowd there is apparently pumped by their candidate's significant lead.

The Watertown Daily Times puts Doug Hoffman's deficit at around 600 votes, with only 13 districts outstanding.

That means it's within the margin of the absentee votes, but it would take a really crazy margin of absentees to overturn that kind of advantage…

We'll see how this pans out.

Updated: AP calls it for Doheny?:

(Canton 12:02 am) From the Associated Press:

BULLETIN (AP) _ Matthew Doheny, GOP, nominated U.S. House, District 23, New York.

I have a feeling the dust will settle on this one tomorrow....

Update:

Syracuse's Post-Standard reports that Doheny has a 600 vote lead, but Hoffman is making no consession as of yet. There are 1,700 absentee ballots and recanvassing to be done. After last year's recanvassing put Hoffman much closer to Bill Owens, I can see why.

By 2:15 a.m, today, Doheny had not declared victory and Hoffman had not conceded the election.

“We’re very pleased with the trend that we have seen tonight,” said Alison Power, speaking for Doheny. “The one thing that is certain is that we will be pulling together and beating Bill Owens in November.”

Hoffman's campaign insisted that the election was far from over, and planned to wait for the results of a recanvassing and the tabulation of absentee ballots.

“This race has turned into a real nail-biter and we plan to count every last vote,” Rob Ryan, Hoffman’s spokesman, said at 12:30 a.m. “In the end, we remain confident that Doug Hoffman will be victorious.”

With at least eight of the 11 counties in the sprawling district reporting 100 percent returns, Doheny led Hoffman, 15,106 to 14,495. About 1,700 absentee ballots remained to be counted, according to Hoffman’s campaign.

Ryan noted that the recount was just as important as the absentee ballots, given what happened in the 23rd District special election last year. Hoffman was cheated of about 1,200 votes in the initial count in Oswego County due to a tabulation error.

NY Primary Results: Live Blogging the primary results for NY's 23rd congressional district

2010-09-14T18:21:00.001-07:00

By Sam Foster

The polls closed at 9pm here in NY and the returns are about to roll in. I'll be trying to live-blog the returns for NY-23. I'll also be keeping tabs on the Republican gubernatorial race, senate races, NY-1 and NY-15 aka the Rangel race.

If you are interested in a preview of what's at stake in the NY primaries, check out my earlier post at Left Coast Rebel.

NCPR is also live blogging from NY-23 and I suspect they'll be the first to know the results of the race between Doug Hoffman and Matt Doheny.

I'll be reviewing the returns at NY Times.

See Coverage Below for Updates:

11:52 pm EST: It's going to be a close one, but I believe Doheny will emerge victorious tonight, but boy oh boy...great turnout in NY-23.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 12,667 53%
Douglas Hoffman 11,249 47%
. 92% reporting

11:47 pm EST: Charlie Rangel officially wins. Jay Townsend has also clinched victory for a run against Chuck Schumer.

11:30 pm EST: Things are looking up for Bill Owens. Doheny may be outside the absentee ballot margin. It's looking like Hoffman needs to win big in Clinton County.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 12,167 53%
Douglas Hoffman 10,847 47%
. 80% reporting

11:23 pm EST: "This isn't a win for Charlie Rangel, this is our community's win..." Charlie Rangel unofficially claims victory...for...the...people?

11:21 pm EST: 27 East News is reporting that Randy Altschuler has officially claimed victory for NY-1.

Randy Altschuler, a business owner from St. James, secured both the Republican and Conservative party lines in hard-fought primary elections on Tuesday, making him the official candidate for both parties for the 1st District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Mr. Altschuler, 39, will now go on to face U.S. Representative Tim Bishop of Southampton, the Democratic incumbent, on Election Day in November. Mr. Bishop, who is also endorsed by the Independence Party, is seeking his fifth term in Congress.

With more than three quarters of the Election Districts reporting on Tuesday night, unofficial results from the Suffolk County Board of Elections showed that Mr. Altschuler had a clear lead ahead of his Republican primary opponents, Chris Cox of Westhampton Beach and George Demos of Ronkonkoma. Republican leaders called the race a short time later.

“Randy Altschuler clearly is the victor in this race,” Suffolk County Republican Party Chairman John Jay LaValle said shortly before 10:30 p.m. At that time, Mr. Altschuler had received 46 percent of the votes, to Mr. Demos’s 31 percent and Mr. Cox’s 24 percent.

11:18 pm EST: Hoffman leading in Essex County and leading big in Clinton County

Essex County
Hoffman: 490

Doheny: 427

No percentage or number of precincts specified.

Clinton County
Hoffman: 1,560

Doheny: 883

37 of 70 districts reporting.

11:13 pm EST: Carl Paladino claims victory over Rick Lazio in NY to take on heavily favored Andrew Cuomo.

Via Washington Post

NEW YORK (AP) - Political novice and tea party ally Carl Paladino has beaten the Republican designee in the race for the party's nomination for New York governor.

Paladino rode a wave of voter anger on his way to defeating former Congressman Rick Lazio. It's another blow to the GOP in a heavily Democratic state.

Paladino, a millionaire Buffalo developer, will now take on the popular and well-financed Democratic attorney general, Andrew Cuomo, in November.

Paladino lost to Lazio at the state GOP convention but then petitioned his way to the primary by securing 30,000 Republican signatures statewide.

11:02 pm EST: HALFTIME! Most districts are close to 50% reporting. Here is the score board.

Paladino with a commanding lead so far.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Carl Paladino 161,024 67%
Rick Lazio 80,439 33%
. 43% reporting

Joe Dioguardi has a small lead over David Malpass

Republicans Votes Pct.
Joseph DioGuardi 91,102 41%
David Malpass 86,274 39%
Bruce Blakeman 43,099 20%
41% reporting

Looks like Jay Townsend will be taking on Chuck Schumer. Good luck...

Republicans Votes Pct.
Jay Townsend 117,545 56%
Gary Berntsen 91,150 44%
. 41% reporting

Looks like Randy Altschuler is the candidate for NY-1. Tim Bishop is back in the hot seat. However, the story is really that George Demos did very well, while Chris Cox and the massive number of Republican endorsements...poorly.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Randy Altschuler 9,515 45%
George Demos 6,341 30%
Chris Cox 5,077 24%
. 88% reporting

Rangel will continue to plunder? Still early...but he's got quite an early lead.

Democrats Votes Pct.
Charles Rangel incumbent 5,621 50%
Adam Clayton Powell 2,712 24%
Joyce S. Johnson 1,294 11%
Ruben Dario Vargas 911 8%
Jonathan B. Tasini 489 4%
Vincent Morgan 244 2%
26% reporting

Hoffman/Doheny? If I weren't getting conflicting reports from NCPR, I'd be writing Doheny the probable winner.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 9,666 53%
Douglas Hoffman 8,452 47%
. 62% reporting

10:59 pm EST: The boys from Jumping in Pools just sent me news that Paladino won Schoharie big!

Paladino won Schoharie County with 76.5% of the vote.

10:56 pm EST: Huge win for Hoffman. Hoffman claims Franklin County with a commanding lead.

Hoffman: 844

Doheny: 340

19 of 19 districts reporting.

10:52 pm EST: AP has Hoffman still up by 100, NY Times has Doheny with a commanding 1,000 vote lead.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 8,872 53%
Douglas Hoffman 7,795 47%
. 54% reporting

10:47 pm EST: This is funny. Watertown Daily Times has a report that Doheny sent out a mailer suggesting that he can't win a three-way race. Someone help me out, aren't you supposed to say "vote for me because I can win?"

10:44 pm EST: NY Times has NY-23 leaning for Doheny. However, Watertown Daily Times reports that there are 1,700 absentee ballots. We may not get a winner tonight. I believe with Hoffman as an army veteran, absentees would skew to favor him.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 4,698 53%
Douglas Hoffman 4,215 47%
. 34% reporting

10:37 pm EST: A dozen ethics violations? No big deal for NY-15...apparently. Rangel looks strong thanks to gerrymandering.

Democrats Votes Pct.
Charles Rangel incumbent 2,347 46%
Adam Clayton Powell 1,116 22%
Joyce S. Johnson 733 14%
Ruben Dario Vargas 462 9%
Jonathan B. Tasini 304 6%
Vincent Morgan 100 2%
Republicans Votes Pct.
Michel Faulkner uncontested
11% reporting

10:31 pm EST: WWNY has Hoffman with a small lead with 41% reporting.

Hoffman: 5,989

Doheny: 5,806

41 percent of NY-23 districts reporting.

10:27 pm EST: NCPR is reporting that Hoffman is off to a commanding lead on the East side of NY-23, though down on the West side, he's showing strong enough that Doheny is not taking any ground.

10:25 pm EST: Not much coming back in the way of NY-15 and Charles Rangel.

Democrats Votes Pct.
Charles Rangel incumbent 316 55%
Adam Clayton Powell 142 25%
Joyce S. Johnson 55 10%
Jonathan B. Tasini 28 5%
Ruben Dario Vargas 24 4%
Vincent Morgan 12 2%
Republicans Votes Pct.
Michel Faulkner uncontested
1% reporting

10:22 pm EST: Who will face Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in November? It's a close race so far, but right now Joe Dioguardi is in the lead. Polls showed him edging out David Malpass earlier.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Joseph DioGuardi 31,941 42%
David Malpass 28,766 38%
Bruce Blakeman 15,487 20%
12% reporting 12% reporting

10:13 pm EST: NCPR is reporting a 500 vote lead for Hoffman, because of a hugh Franklin County showing.

Here are the results so far.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 2,145 56%
Douglas Hoffman 1,657 44%
. 17% reporting

10:11 pm EST: Could be a rough night for Rick Lazio. Paladino is showing strong early.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Carl Paladino 53,629 71%
Rick Lazio 21,696 29%
. 9% reporting

10:08 pm EST: Looks like Randy Altschuler is holding tight to the lead in the three-way race for NY-1.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Randy Altschuler 1,531 46%
George Demos 1,037 31%
Chris Cox 745 22%
. 17% reporting

9:52 pm EST: Looks like Randy Altschuler is out to an early lead in NY-1 with 10% reporting.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Randy Altschuler 934 46%
George Demos 637 31%
Chris Cox 460 23%
. 10% reporting

9:49 pm EST: Looks like overall Doheny up +19, but lots of ballots still to count. Watertown is showing an East/West divide. Doheny taking the West side. Most reporting districts have been Western, not much coming in from the Hoffman side of NY-23 so far.

9:46 pm EST: Looks like the trend for NY-23 is in Doheny's favor. New results from Lewis County show Doheny with narrow lead.

Doheny: 570

Hoffman: 521

72 percent of precincts reporting.

9:44 pm EST: NY Times has Hoffman out to early lead, but only 3% reporting

Republicans Votes Pct.
Douglas Hoffman 275 57%
Matthew Doheny 207 43%
. 3% reporting

9:40 pm EST: NY Times has Paladino in an early lead at 58% to 42% with 1% reporing. Too early.

9:41 pm EST: Doheny wins big in Jefferson County.

(Canton 9:40 pm) From Jefferson County:

Doheny: 62 percent

Hoffman: 38 percent

100 percent of precincts reporting.

Via NCPR

9:36 pm EST: Hoffman wins Harrietstown and holds lead in Franklin County. While Doheny leading in St. Lawrence and Lewis Counties. Big ones to watch is Oswego and Jefferson. Via NPR

9:33 pm EST: Paladino takes Jefferson County 54% to Lazio 46%, 100% precincts reporting. Via NCPR

Obama to host DCCC luncheon in NY, but which congressional Democrats will actually show up?

2010-09-14T11:02:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

President Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid are planning a fundraising event for all the Democrat congressional delegation on September 22^nd. Nothing too surprising, in this election season, Democrats will need all the money they can get. What will prove interesting is who will or will not show up?

The invitation is for the entire NY congressional delegation. However, with a toxic President, Democrat leadership, and agenda, it should translate into at least a few no-shows.

Scott Murphy NY-20 and Dan Maffei NY-25 have both run ads professing their non-insider credentials, but will they turn down the President?

Right now, I'm only willing to wager that Mike Arcuri NY-24 will be a no, but I promise to contact all the campaigns and at least ask if they will be attending. I'm doubtful of a response.

Video: If Rep. Dan Maffei Debates Ann Marie Buerkle it Will Probably Go Something Like This

2010-09-13T19:44:00.000-07:00

I've been asking around, and as far as I know, no debates are scheduled between incumbent Dan Maffei (D) and Ann Marie Buerkle in the NY25 race. If they do debate it will probably go something like this.

Buerkle for Congress! Kick a progressive out of the House, donate to Ann Marie Buerkle!

(Video of the finger wag can be found here!)

Cross posted from The Lonely Conservative

"Capital is frozen"

2010-09-12T17:23:00.000-07:00

by Bill Claydon

Cross posted at RedState.com

The Veterans for Gibson coalition held a barbecue event for area veterans at Gurtler Brothers VFW Post 420 in Saratoga Springs on September 12th. Colonel Chris Gibson (R) is challenging incumbent Scott Murphy (D) in New York's 20th Congressional District. Veterans from all wars starting with World War II through to the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were present and congratulated (by individual war) for their service.

The event was very well attended with the majority of picnic tables filled. Speakers thanked people for their enthusiasm and asked that they stay the course through election day.

Gibson spoke, reminding people of the need to live by a budget, citing growing up in a working family. His family lived within their means and did not spend money they didn't have. This is the model our Congress needs to adopt.

He talked further about the Constitution with its checks and balances to prevent any particular part of government from gaining too much power over the other or over the people. Gibson also stressed the need to eliminate some parts of the bureaucracy.

But the area where Gibson spoke the most about is the economy. As he noted, capital is frozen. Small businesses are holding onto what they have in terms of employees, but they cannot expand due to the uncertainty and terrible economic climate. They have no idea whether the tax cuts passed years ago will remain or whether they will be going up next year. With that in mind, businesses cannot possibly consider hiring new employees or investing in new equipment.

The "stimulus" was passed 20 months ago. (Note: Scott Murphy supported this "stimulus" but was not yet in Congress to actually vote on it.) We were recently at 9.5% unemployment but now are up to 9.6%. "That's the wrong direction," Gibson reminded people.

Citing 1931, when taxes went up after the 1929 stock market crash, Gibson pointed out that we need to learn from history. Raising taxes was the worst possible thing then and is the worst possible thing to do now in an attempt to "fix" the economy.

On health care, Gibson talked about wanting to repeal and REPLACE the current health care bill. Pointing out that the onerous regulations of the bill passed last spring are preventing businesses from hiring or expanding (note: self-proclaimed businessman Scott Murphy flip flopped and supported this bill), Gibson called for replacing it with something better. He wants to allow people to buy insurance over state lines, have more non-profit companies compete with for profit companies, introduce tort reform, and bring about other changes which will make health care affordable for people without the numerous problems in the multi-thousand page bill Congress pushed through earlier this year.

Noting that he has read the health care bill, he cannot see how this particular bill will help. He asked people to try and convince him otherwise. Nobody stepped forward.

Gibson also asked that we pay attention to what he is doing in Congress should he win. If he gets off track and supports bills which do not serve the people, he should be fired. It's refreshing to see a politician that is actually concerned about representing the people of the 20th district. Hopefully we'll have a representative like that come January 2011. It will be a welcome change from the status quo, in my opinion.

Michael Knowles responds to Congressman's Hall's former band mates from Orleans and their lawsuit against Young Voters for an Orlean's Reunion Tour

2010-09-10T14:13:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Yesterday, Congressman John Hall's former band, Orlean's, notified Michael Knowles, leader of Republican challenger Nan Hayworht's Young Voters for an Orlean's Reunion Tour that they intended to sue the group for trademark infringement and a whole list of cyber-lingo-sounding-torts like "cybersquatting."

I shot Michael Knowles and email to get his side of the story.

Sam Foster: Will you be complying with Orlean's demands to remove the site and turn over records?

Michael Knowles: These are some pretty desperate campaign tactics, though it unfortunately appears to be par for the course. The Young Voters for Nan Hayworth will not be intimidated by Congressman John Hall, campaign manager Patrick McGarrity, or any band member of Orleans. The First Amendment still applies to every citizen of the United States, even if they disagree with Congressman Hall.

Sam Foster: Orleans claims that your site is a subterfuge meant to disinform their fans, is that accurate?

Michael Knowles: The header of our website reads, "Get John Hall onstage and out of Congress." If Congressman Hall or his band mates think that is deceitful, I don't know how to convince them otherwise. I began to receive personal threats from Larry Hoppen even after I allowed him to place his own promotional material on our website, so I'm not sure that disinformation is really the reason for which the Young Voters for Nan Hayworth are being sued by John Hall's band mates. It just seems a little too political for me--no one in their right mind could possibly be deceived by our website.

Sam Foster: As you've previously told me, you are an Orleans fan. Does the possible lawsuit change your opinion of the group?

Michael Knowles: Well, it is unfortunate that the band I love has decided to sue me. However, this lawsuit does not change the beautiful lyrics of Sails, the upbeat rhythms of Still The One, or the heart-wrenching sentiment of Dance With Me. I am and will remain a loyal fan of Orleans. Of course, I'd be a much bigger fan if they'd again include Congressman Hall in their lineup.

Sam Foster: If your site in fact, supports the band. In what ways have you promoted the group over the last month of operation?

Michael Knowles: Our website provides several links to Orleans' official site and their Wikipedia entry, and our Blogroll links to their Twitter feed. When Larry Hoppen demanded that I post certain pictures and videos on the website, I complied within hours. We've linked to their news, events, and music. I really don't think there is anything more we could do to promote the group.

Scott Murphy concocts the least interesting campaign fraud allegation…EVER!

2010-09-09T12:59:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

It was bound to happen; in a close race for NY's 20^th congressional district you have to expect some dirt to get flung at one point. It looks like the blue side of the fence where Scott Murphy resides has come out with allegations that are certain to bore voters into the deepest of comas; The-Great-Gisbon-Accounting-Method-Fraud-Heard-'Round-NY20, which features a sleep inducing but enlightening education into the exciting world of accounting methods.

Get out the no-doze, as I explain…

It all started when a Chris Gibson aide had notified Maggie Habbermann at the Politico that Gibson had $504,000 cash-on-hand on July 9^th prior to the official filing. No formal press release with official details was provided by the campaign, just a small addendum to the Politico's report. However, this figure touted on July 9^th was not the same figure that appeared in Gibson's official public FEC filings.

Today, NYS Democrats and Scott Murphy hope to make that small addendum on Maggie's blog post the largest issue at stake for NY-20 voters this November, as opposed to say…Murphy's fundraiser with Obama administration official Rahm Emanuel to reward Murphy's flip-flop vote on Obamacare.

The NYS Democratic Party issued the following statement:

This is about more than Chris Gibson puffing up his fundraising numbers to pretend he's a stronger candidate than he really is. It's about whether voters can trust Gibson to tell the truth when it really matters. Simply put, Gibson needs to show New Yorkers the money, starting with an account statement proving that he wasn't trying to pull a fast one on voters by lying about his campaign cash,

Chris Gibson's campaign argues that the figure in dispute was the campaign's bank balance as it stood on July 9^th as opposed to the official cash-on-hand filing with the FEC. Both the Post Star and Times Union have reported the story, but is this really worth all the ink?

The heart of the issue is really a matter of two different methods of accounting. What could be more tedious? Gibson's campaign statement of $504,000 is a financial figure based on what we accountants call Cash Accounting; aka what's in your bank account this very moment. We use it everyday. In fact, if I asked you how much money you had, you'd probably state your cash holdings in a similar way.

However, FEC filings need to be filed in what's known as Accrual Accounting. The difference is essentially akin to your bank statement (cash accounting) versus your check register (accrual accounting). Since reporters and politicians live in the world of FEC filings, it makes sense why a casual statement of "we have $504,000" would be assumed as accrual based accounting by the media, but is this assumption from the press really a scandal?

A scandal would require that Chris Gibson, as the NYS Democrats put it, was "trying to pull a fast one on voters by lying about his campaign cash." The accusation is quite laughable. After all, Scott Murphy has nearly a three to one advantage in cash-on-hand. What would the Gibson campaign benefit by intentionally misleading the press regarding their cash-on-hand figure by $50,000 when Murphy has $1.5 million to Gibson's roughly $500,000? Even if it were possible to cajole the press into reporting that Gibson, and not Murphy, had a cash-on-hand advantage, why would his campaign bother doing it, given the fact that they had two better narratives; a) outraising Murphy in the 2^nd quarter and b) a stunning show of single donor support.

The-Great-Gisbon-Accounting-Method-Fraud-Heard-'Round-NY20 is about as exciting as when Scott Murphy called his wife's cousin, his wife's sister. These types of things happen. How about moving on to something serious?

Update:

Chris Gibson's campaign just got caught red handed touting their own bank account on 7/9/10. Gibson's campaign turned itself in with the following statement:

$504 k was arrived at by the deposits of July 9th added to the bank balance. The apparent mistake was not realizing that the balance stated already included the deposit made that same day. This is a simple honest mistake, nothing more.
$ 447,375.51 balance July 9th
$ 56,871.61 deposit July 9th

...and The-Great-Gisbon-Accounting-Method-Fraud-Heard-'Round-NY20 comes to a conclusion...

Politico releases Republican roadmap to congressional control and Reed, Hayworth, Gibson, Hanna all made the list

2010-09-09T08:30:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster
Via Politico

Now that we are within 60 days until the November elections, we are about to get barraged with political prognostications. The Politico is early to the race and they have an interesting layout for predicting Republican's prospects for taking control of congress. They've created a three tier look at perspective house seats and many Upstate NY seats have made the list.

Here is how the tiered system works.

Via Politico

The first group includes the most imperiled Democratic seats — these are the "must-wins" — without which the GOP has no shot at House control. It's a roster filled with freshmen who benefited from Barack Obama's coattails, the most vulnerable veterans and Republican-friendly open seats where the retirement of a Democratic incumbent has created a prime pickup opportunity. If Republicans can't win most of these seats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will take the gavel again for the 112th Congress.

The second group of seats could be labeled the "majority makers" — a class of races that are within GOP reach but will require defeating well-prepared Democratic incumbents or winning on highly competitive terrain. If the GOP is winning most of these races on election night, a Republican majority will be close at hand. If not, Democrats still have a chance of waking up Nov. 3 with a slim margin in the House.

The third group could be described as the "landslide" class. For the most part, these districts are a tough climb for GOP candidates, because of either the strength of the Democratic incumbent or the partisan tilt of the seat. If the Democrats in this category start to fall on election night, a wave election is unfolding.

Must Win districts in NY:

NY-29

Democrats have not recovered from the resignation of Rep. Eric Massa and appear to have written off this GOP-leaning seat.

Majority Makers districts in NY:

NY-24
After winning a 2008 reelection squeaker in this Republican-leaning upstate New York seat, Rep. Michael Arcuri is considered one of the top GOP targets in New York—and faces a rematch with Richard Hanna, who nearly defeated him two years ago.

NY-23
Rep. Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat after Republicans fractured in a November 2009 special election, is vying for his first full term in a district that had been in GOP hands for roughly a century.

Republican Landslide districts in NY:

NY-19
Rep. John Hall has struggled to keep pace with the fundraising of Republican Nan Hayworth and his voting record has been criticized as too liberal for a district with a slight GOP voter registration advantage.

NY-20
Rep. Scott Murphy's 2009 special-election win in one of New York's most Republican-friendly districts was a setback for the GOP. He's worked hard to win a full term in November but his flip from opposition to the health care reform plan to support could prove to be a problem.

If a Nan Hayworth and Chris Gibson win is what it takes for the GOP to have a landslide victory this year, than Democrats are in for a rough night on November 2^nd. Both candidates look quite formidable this year and they'll be tough to beat.

The Politico also had the Ann Marie Buerkle/Dan Maffei race on what they call, "the bubble." Meaning less competitive, but competitive still.

Endorsements may swing momentum to David Malpass for NY Senate

2010-09-07T13:14:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Polls have shown that Joe Dioguardi has a slim lead amongst his opponents for the opportunity to face Kirsten Gillibrand for this year's senate race. However, David Malpass is quickly stacking up some key endorsements. Last week it was the NY Post. This week, former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani said of Malpass:

"David Malpass is a serious thinker who will serve in the tradition of some of New York's most distinguished United States senators," said Mayor Giuliani. "David is a life-long fiscal conservative who has stayed true to his principles of limited government, low taxes and strong economic growth throughout his entire career, dating back to his service to President Reagan. I'm thrilled to endorse him as the next U.S. Senator because I know he will be a leader that New Yorkers can be proud of."

"I'm deeply honored to receive the endorsement of 'America's Mayor' Rudy Giuliani," said Mr. Malpass. "Mayor Giuliani has proved that individuals with backbone can make a real difference in public office and in that spirit I will serve in the United States Senate. Our nation is in dire need of principled conservatives who will stop the spending madness of the current Congress and bring fiscal sanity back to the federal government."

Hoffman Better Abide by Next Week's Decision

2010-09-07T11:40:00.000-07:00

Posted by Mr. K

Doug Hoffman's loss in November ate at the heart of Conservativeactivists across the Nation. It was the low-water mark in a off year election that saw Conservatism overrun two Obama backed candidacies with relative ease, Republicans win countless local elections across the Nation (especially the North East), and a strong pro-marriage victory in liberal Maine.

But that Hoffman loss still stings. What started out as an insurgent/revolt campaign against a Republican who seemed to support few Conservative ideals, turned into the "race of the year" for new and old media types, as the election shifted from Democrat Bill Owens vs. Republican Dede Scozzafava, to Democrat Bill Owens vs.Conservative Doug Hoffman.

Hoffman would end up losing by 3,500 votes, due largely to Scozzafava's name remaining on the ballot when she withdrew her candidacy the week of the vote, and her last-minute cut-throat endorsement of Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate who eventually became what we all expected him to be all along: A solid pro-Pelosi/Obama vote in Congress.

Why I am bringing this up again?

Because the Republican Nominee in New York's 23rd congressional district will be selected next Tuesday. And some individuals are concerned that if Doug Hoffman doesn't win the nomination, that he will once again run for Congress on the Conservative Party line, assuring a Bill Owens victory on election day. Something no-one wants.

If Doug Hoffman wins on Tuesday, he wins the Nomination. But if Matt Doheny (a Conservative portfolio manager) is the victor on Tuesday, he wins the Nomination. My hope is that Hoffman wins, but if he doesn't - I will not be able to support him. There is a time when men (and women) place themselves above others, for the wrong reason. And if Hoffman runs again on the Conservative Party line against the Republican Nominee, it would be for the wrong reason.

New York's 23rd congressional district - Defeat Owens, Support the Republican.

Originally posted at JiP

Scott Murphy can’t compete with Republican Challenger Chris Gibson on single donor support

2010-09-07T11:21:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

It is instructive to watch Scott Murphy buy ad after ad about how he is closely tied to the district, yet it hasn't translated in donor support.

Scott Murphy's campaign shot from the hip last week when releasing preliminary fundraising numbers for the 3^rd quarter. Murphy touted nearly $325k raised so far. However, his press release was quite anemic as far as the details for his sources of funding. Clearly, Murphy was looking to influence the media template with a message that his campaign had reclaimed momentum.

Turns out, Murphy's edge in fundraising is little more than politicking as his FEC report shows serious lack of voter support when compared to Republican challenger Chris Gibson's. It turns out nearly half of this quarter's funding is from PACs, while Gibson nearly tripled the number of Scott Murphy's single donors by 937-322.

Via Chris Gibson's press release:

Gibson raised a total of $261,955.82 from across 949 donations, 937 of which were from individuals' contributions. Over 91% of all the individual contributions were from New York. The total amount raised by Gibson from individuals was $236,690.12 compared to Murphy's $183,645.79. The amount raised from New York individuals by Gibson was $206,815.90 compared to Murphy's $101,837.00. Congressman Murphy raised 43% of his total contribution, $141,103.81, from PACs, political parties and sitting members of Congress campaign organizations. That is compared to $25,265.70, or less than 10% of total contributions, collected by Gibson from like organizations across 12 donations.

It means little to have a large campaign war chest if the voters aren't on your side. I'd take a large number of single donors over media marketing any day.

Scott Murphy’s PR Fail: small businesses remain unconvinced at prop SBA event

2010-09-03T10:53:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Roughly two weeks ago, Scott Murphy made a pitch during his debate with Chris Gibson that government and small business could be partners in economics growth. A few days later, Scott Murphy launched his second campaign video touting his small business friendly credentials. Using small business owners as props for his re-election, the video tried to market the idea that Scott Murphy was a boon for Main Street businesses.

Noticeably missing from the ad was Scott Murphy's voting record. Here's why.

Continuing on his perceived strength in the area of SBA loans, Scott Murphy held a round table meeting with SBA director Karen Mills. However, many business owners voiced concern over the extreme difficulty and rigors involved in obtaining SBA loans:

While Levitas said the SBA loan process went smoothly for him, others voiced a different concern, citing burdensome paperwork and a slow approval process.

"I think it's good for the decision makers to hear it straight from the horse's mouth," said Kent Tarkleson, who owns an indoor recreational golf club named Tark's, on the city's west side. Tarkleson said he eventually secured funding for his business project privately, but added that Thursday's roundtable was an encouraging step forward for decision makers to take steps to make the process more user-friendly.

Unfortunately, small businesses owners will need to get used to the bureaucracy involved in obtaining government funding. Scott Murphy's vote on financial reform has all but ensured credit markets will be stalled for years to come. Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets gave the following assessment:

However, he added that after full implementation, the bill will reduce bank's profits, reduce the ability to compete globally and reduce credit to the economy.

"The biggest losers for the drop in credit will be small to medium sized firms which are the drivers of job growth in the United States. Regulation increases the cost of what is being regulated as it simultaneously reduces the supply of what is being regulated."

Scott Murphy's marketing may be slick, but in the end businesses know that his voting record is challenge standing in the way of small business. Regulations like the 1099 requirements in the health care bill Murphy voted for are crippling burdens to small businesses and inhibiting economic recovery.

Sure Murphy was able to help grease the Volkommer's SBA application, but the real problem is; what is his plan for the thousands of other businesses he's burdened with his Washington votes? If you ask him, I'll guarantee you'll get a prop instead of an answer.

Preliminary 3rd quarter fundraising: Murphy out-raises, but Chris Gibson’s single donor support is astounding

2010-09-03T07:43:00.000-07:00

By Sam Foster

Several campaigns are taking the opportunity to file preliminary finance numbers for their campaign press releases. I'll be updating UPR throughout the day with the different races. The most publicized thus far is NY-20 between Chris Gibson and Scott Murphy.

Hoping to stem some of Chris Gibson's momentum, Scott Murphy released his filings early and reported to have raised $325,000 since the beginning of July. The announcement from Murphy shows that he outpaced Gibson's fundraising in the 3^rd quarter. Gibson reported a total of $261,955 in a press release last night. Both figures are an impressive feat from two candidates that are going to give quite a battle for NY-20.

Though Murphy is reporting to have outraised Chris Gibson, his press release is light on information on the sources of funding. It begs the question of whether his fundraising is the result of individual donations, or personal lending and PAC contributions. Regardless, Murphy maintains his healthy cash advantage.

While the jury's out on Murphy's sources of cash, Chris Gibson continues to prove strong, local, single donation support.

Gibson's press release reported:

"We are very honored by the overwhelming amount of support we have received," Gibson said. "We may have started later and as a challenger facing entrenched interests supporting my opponent, but we have proven we are competitive and will be running a complete campaign to earn the trust of the voters of the whole 20th district. The groundswell of support from individuals around the district continues to build because people know Washington is out of touch and we need new leadership in Congress."

During this latest filing period, Gibson raised a total of $261,955.82 from 952 donors. Over 94% of all the individual donors were from New York. The campaign had over $526,334.46 cash-on-hand as of August 26th. Since Gibson's campaign began in March, the campaign has raised $853,633.73.