by Bill Claydon
There are so few days between now and election day. There are numerous Democrat Senators and Congresspersons who need a boost in their sagging fortunes. Obama has been campaigning for various politicians, but his track record of campaigning for politicians such as Jon Corzine (ex-governor of New Jersey) and Martha Coakley (failed candidate for US Senate from Massachusetts) is not so good — in blue states, no less. Enter Bill Clinton. Clinton is doing marathon campaigning, causing liberals to get all nostalgic about his days as president. It’s so strange how they didn’t have that nostalgia just a couple of years ago when he had an opportunity to reenter the White House as a “tag along,” so to speak.
Anyway, with such limited time, Clinton has to be sent to the places where he is needed most. Democrats who will be coasting to reelection can’t take away from his precious time. In New York’s 20th Congressional district, we have a “nice guy” named Scott Murphy. He tells us he’s a businessman and he created jobs (forgetting to mention where those jobs were created) and that he wants to get the government out of the way. Sounds great. But there is one teeny tiny little problem. Murphy has this pesky and annoying thing called a record. It’s really a nuisance and something he didn’t have to deal with when he ran the first time around. Murphy’s record of voting for almost all of Nancy Pelosi’s big government binges sort of contradicts all this cutesy talk about supporting small business and wanting to get the government out of the way.
Murphy said he supported the so-called “stimulus.” (He was unable to vote for it because he was not in office at the time of the vote.) He voted for Cap and Trade. He flip flopped and voted for ObamaCare. He voted for the second stimulus for his big union buddies, “paying for it” by cutting future food stamps. (I thought Democrats like to proclaim they are for the poor?) He claimed he wanted to support extending the Bush tax cuts for middle and lower class Americans starting in 2011, but then voted to adjourn the House before this very important vote could take place. But we were told by liberals in their blogs that Murphy was absolutely going to win this race handily. Not only did people not want a Republican but they certainly did not want one that actually had tea party support!
Murphy’s campaign has lots of money from Democrat Congresspersons in safe seats. Afterall, he has carried their water and he was rewarded. He also has money from Wall Street, trial lawyers, and various other sources from outside the 20th district. He’s wealthy himself and can afford to loan money to his campaign. Surely money should do the trick. He could flood the airwaves with fables about his opponent, Colonel Chris Gibson. Murphy’s ads said Gibson cut Medicare by 75%. Gosh, isn’t that something? Colonel Gibson was overseas protecting our country, and has never been in Congress. But somehow, Murphy’s ad claims Gibson managed to do this. I’m not sure how that’s possible but Murphy’s ad said it happened.
So Murphy’s got money. He’s got this shtick about being a businessman who just wants to get the government out of the way (he just needs a laugh track to go along with it) and the liberals say he’s going to win. What more could he need? Well, evidently, something is going wrong. On the day before the election, Bill Clinton is taking precious time out of his very busy schedule to campaign with Scott Murphy. This is time that could be used to help other Democrats scrambling for votes. And if Murphy has this in the bag, why would Bill Clinton need to be sent here? It just seems so odd.
But maybe Scott Murphy and Bill Clinton will soon have something in common. I mean, Bill Clinton is out of office…
Pollster Steve Greenberg says you can't draw an exact apples-to-apples comparison between this survey and the last one in September.
The reason is that Siena used a slightly different voter model in this survey, so that it's difficult to draw a clean contrast.
"I would say it's a Macintosh to a Red Delicious [comparison]," Greenberg says.
"This poll today has a more stringent 'likely voter' sample in it," he added.
Greenberg is confident that their methodology was able to capture a good snapshot of which voters are more likely to vote, and how that shapes the race now seven days from the November midterms.
The revelation is actually quite stunning, since Siena is pretty much the only non-partisan polling releasing data for NY. Just look at the numbers from some of the previous polling:
10/20 – Cuomo, 37 points over Paladino
10/17 – Maffei, 12 points over Ann Marie Buerkle
10/13 – Owens, 5 points over Doheny
If Siena had previously skewed so far Democrat in the Gibson/Murphy race, what surprises will we find on Nov. 2nd?
by Mary Ziegler
Mary has been an organizer for the local liberty movement since April of 2009 and is currently the organizer for Renewing the Republic, a group that encourages grassroots involvement in the political process. http://www.meetup.com/RenewingtheRepublic/
Part of me can’t help but feel sorry for Congressman Scott Murphy, to be so completely out of touch and overwhelmed by Chris Gibson. I believe Murphy labored under the delusion that his re-election was inevitable. Chris Gibson is a political neophyte, along with many on his staff. He also doesn’t have the millions of dollars Murphy has amassed from Wall Street donations and the leadership PACs of House members like Speaker Nancy Pelosi. However, Colonel Gibson is no stranger to battle after serving in the military for 24 years, deployed seven times, including four tours in Iraq. Gibson considers this a mission for which failure is not an option. Indeed the fate of the country depends on this race and others like it throughout the country.
This past week has been very bad for Congressman Murphy. A flawed Siena Poll released in August showed Murphy with a comfortable lead, yet his campaign still resorted to tired old political tactics. After a number of negative ads with false allegations (including Chris Gibson wants to ship jobs to China and privatize social security) two separate polls showed Murphy had blundered and Gibson now holds a lead of at least 2-3 points. Additionally momentum is clearly on Gibson’s side and voter turnout is a factor these polls can’t accurately predict.
Then there was the disastrous debate in Glens Falls on Tuesday night. Gibson supporters far outnumbered Murphy’s in his own backyard and the enthusiasm for Gibson is palpable. Not so much for Murphy. The Congressman stuck to the usual Democratic talking points and made the mistake of publicly declaring Gibson intends to ship jobs to China. In response the retired Colonel gave the best line of the campaign, “The only thing I’ve shipped overseas in the last decade has been myself and my paratroopers to fight for your freedom!” Murphy was floored and I believe the smug presumption that he would roll to victory was destroyed. Murphy’s red faced disdain contrasted sharply with the calm gravitas of Chris Gibson.
Thursday’s debate at WMHT didn’t go any better for Murphy. Unlike Tuesday night he managed to keep his cool, but the tension and nervousness on his face was obvious to all in the audience. Both men did fine in a field of the usual questions, but there was not the crushing blow Murphy needed to stop the momentum that continues to avalanche for Gibson or will convince voters that his record can be defended.
Perhaps the worst blow for Congressman Murphy this week came when Chris Gibson received the endorsement of the NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses), and Murphy received a disastrous “F” rating (with a score of 42%) for his Congressional votes that negatively impact small businesses. Murphy has based his campaign around his experience as a successful businessman who will create jobs and fight for the livelihood of other small businesspeople struggling throughout the district. In reality there is little the multi-millionaire venture capitalist− who owns a company that has outsourced jobs to India− has in common with the hurting small businesspeople of the 20th. The NFIB agreed and reminded Congressman Murphy that his votes will have a devastating impact on small businesses and the people throughout the 20th Congressional District. They gladly endorsed Gibson.
I almost feel bad for Congressman Murphy being so overwhelmed by Chris Gibson, but then I remember that for over a year many of us had rallied, called, written emails, spoken to his staff, and done anything we could to make the Congressman listen to our concerns. This was to no avail. Congressman Murphy voted with Pelosi 91% of the time and on bills that will be devastating to the future of my children and the country, including Cap and Trade, the Stimulus Package, and the Health Care abomination.
For Congressman Murphy on November 2 the people will speak again and this time he will have to listen.
