More bad news for Buerkle: Trailing in two polls

By Sam Foster
Via The Post-Standard

Buerkle may have clinched an endorsement from Sarah Palin, but her fundraising disappointed and now two polls show her trailing far behind Democrat incumbent Dan Maffei.

The Post-Standard reports:

Buerkle paid for a poll taken last week that shows Maffei leading by 9 percentage points, 46 to 37, with 17 percent undecided. Maffei paid for a poll at the end of June that showed the congressman leading by 19 percentage points, 54 to 35, with 11 percent of likely voters undecided.

Pollster John McLaughlin said Buerkle could win "with a well-funded and well-executed media campaign," suggesting the poll will likely be used for fundraising purposes.

In an interview Monday, Buerkle said she found the poll encouraging. "I think absolutely this race is winnable," she said. "It shows my message is resonating and our whole grass-roots effort is turning into a tremendous amount of support."

Buerkle noted that the McLaughlin poll found a statistical dead heat among respondents who have heard of both candidates, with 42 percent for Buerkle, 43 percent for Maffei, and 15 percent undecided. "The key to my success is meeting the voters," Buerkle said. "The more I can relate to people, the more support I get. I was pleased because it was the result of a lot of hard work."

It's too early to call it over, but Buerkle has one big hill to climb.

Update:

Contributor Lonely Conservative and an anonymous reader strongly disagree with my assessment. They are in good company, so does Jim Geraghty at NRO.

This was on my list of 99 potentially competitive seats, but I hadn’t considered Rep. Dan Maffei, New York Democrat, to be seriously vulnerable this cycle. But I think Republican (and Conservative and Independence line) challenger Ann Marie Buerkle is now demonstrating we have to keep an eye on this race.

I conceed! Under 50% certainly puts Dan Maffei in the hot seat!

Ann Marie Buerkle fundraising continues struggle in 2nd quarter

By Sam Foster

Money certainly isn't everything in a campaign, but it certainly does help…a lot.  Ann Marie Buerkle's 2^nd quarter fundraising results are in and they are surprisingly anemic.  

According to the report, Ann Marie raised roughly $70,000 from April through June 2010 and roughly $150,000 in cash on hand.  It's a far cry from Democrat incumbent Dan Maffei who had roughly $1.1 million in cash on hand back in March.  His 2^nd quarter filings are due tomorrow.

Buerkle's filing might explain why she sought Sarah Palin's endorsement earlier in the week.  Ann Marie Buerkle was also recently endorsed by the SBA List.  Hopefully these endorsements will materialize into donations.  

Susan B. Anthony List Endorses Pro-Life Ann Marie Buerkle

By Lonely Conservative
Via Lonely Conservative

Ann Marie Buerkle picked up another big endorsement in her run against the incumbent Dan Maffei (D) in New York’s 25th congressional district.

WASHINGTON, July 13 /Christian Newswire/ — Today the Susan B. Anthony List Candidate Fund, a national pro-life political action committee, announced its endorsement of Ann Marie Buerkle, candidate for U.S. House of Representatives in NY-25.

“New York and all American women deserve the pro-life feminine leadership Ann Marie Buerkle so capably provides,” stated SBA List Candidate Fund President Marjorie Dannenfelser.

As a registered nurse and working mother of six, Buerkle is an example of the caliber of candidate Dannenfelser said can be expected of the wave of pro-life women leaders running for office around the country. “A new women’s movement which affirms its original pro-life roots is making its way to the House of Representatives, and Buerkle is one of its brightest new stars.”

You can read the full endorsement at Buerkle for Congress.

Dan Maffei’s knee jerk response: does Palin endorsement hurt Ann Marie Buerkle?

By Sam Foster
Via Post-Standard

Last night I had the pleasure in announcing that Ann Marie Buerkle, Republican running for NY's 25^th Congressional District, would join the "Mama Grizzlies" with an endorsement from Sarah Palin.  I had intended on doing an in depth analysis of what the endorsements means, but waited patiently for the Dan Maffei response.  

This morning, the Post-Standard reported from the Maffei campaign and released the following statement:

The Maffei campaign said Buerkle will find out that Palin is out of touch with most Central New Yorkers.

"I think the fact that Ann Marie Buerkle is throwing in her lot with the Sarah Palin-Tea Party wing of the Republican Party will tell voters here all they need to know about her," said Dan McNally, speaking for the campaign.

"Sarah Palin and her Tea Party supporters have a clear idea of where they want to take this country, but I don't think most voters here in Central and Western New York share that viewpoint," McNally said.

He added that voters in the 25th District, including Republicans, "want to move away from Sarah Palin-style partisan politics and just focus on coming up with real solutions to the real problems we're facing."

Maffei's response was typical given a June NBC/WSJ poll that found that a Palin endorsement was viewed unfavorably by a national audience.  Those polled disfavored a Palin endorsement 2 to 1.  However remember, this is a national poll.  The real question is "do the voters of NY-25 dislike Sarah Palin?"

That is a more difficult question.  One that Dan Maffei might want to answer before giving such a knee-jerk response.  The conventional political wisdom of NY-25 is that it is a blue district.  The Cook Political Report rates the district D +3 in their Partisan Voter Index.  However, the Palin endorsement does not breed in a static political environment.  The same June NBC/WSJ poll I mentioned above had more to say about Dan Maffei than Sarah Palin.  According to the poll, respondents disfavored those who voted for the stimulus by 46 to 39 and those who voted for health care reform 50 to 39.  Both bills were ardently supported by Congressman Maffei.

The other question is whether or not Sarah Palin is truly toxic in NY-25.  The evidence suggests this might not be the case.  Sarah Palin visited Auburn, one of NY-25's population centers.  Below is coverage from the Post-Standard in regards to the event:

The crowd greeted Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin with cheers and applause as she hoped out of her SUV and climbed in the back of a 1959 Cadlilac to start the Founder's Day parade today in Auburn.

Palin was the star attraction, and she didn't disappoint, waving to the crowd and posing for photos with two Auburn firefighters just before the parade began.

"She's really a lot cuter than on TV," said Anita Petrosino of Auburn

Petrosino was there to see her two granddaughters march in the parade.

The sidewalks were jammed nearly shoulder-to-shoulder in many places along Genesee Street as on-lookers jockeyed to get a glimpse of Palin, her husband, Todd, and daughter, Willow. At one point, the trio got out of the car to walk along the parade route.

Palin waved and smiled, connecting with the crowd and acknowledging their cheers.

"See you in four years," Art Carnicelli shouted, catching Palin's attention as her car passed by. She smiled, then saw Carnicelli had a Palin T-shirt on and shouted back: "I like your T-shirt."

Farther down the parade route, Bill Lee of Auburn shouted, "Glad you made it," to which Palin replied, "Thank you. We love it here."

It is important to note that this was the local response at a time where Palin's approval ratings were polling at their worst.  They've since improved.

I had the opportunity to watch Dan Maffei march in a Fourth of July parade in Irondequoit, it was hardly the site described above.  That is until Maffei left the parade and the war veterans marched past.  Palin certainly polarizes, but she also boosts enthusiasm.  The endorsement is also likely to help Ann Marie Buerkle's fundraising efforts.  Both developments would be welcome additions to the Buerkle campaign.

Only time will tell the effect a Palin endorsement will have on Ms. Buerkle's campaign.  However, I'm willing to make a friendly bet that Maffei is more out of touch with his district's voters than a woman from Wasilla, AK and I'm sure the voters know it too.

Correction: A reader points out the Auburn is not in NY-25. In fact it is just outside NY-25 in Mike Arcuri's district in NY-24.

Sarah Palin endorses Ann Marie Buerkle for NY-25; Ann Marie joins the Mama Grizzlies

By Sam Foster
Via Sarah Palin Facebook & Politico

There are a number of great women running on the Conservative/Republican ticket this coming November; Ann Marie Buerkle, Nan Hayworth, and Jill Rowland to name a few in Upstate NY.  I just caught word that Ann Marie Buerkle, running against Democrat incumbent Dan Maffei for NY's 25th Congressional District, has received an endorsement from Sarah Palin.

From Sarah Palin's Facebook:

I'm proud to endorse an Empire State leader who's running to represent New York's 25th Congressional District. Ann Marie Buerkle is a commonsense constitutional conservative and is willing to put it all on the line to help put our country on the right track. Ann Marie is a registered nurse who went back to college to earn her law degree at age 40, while at the same time serving her community on the Syracuse City Council. Since 1997, Ann Marie has served as an Assistant New York State Attorney General on behalf of Upstate Medical Center. If you want an expert who knows why we need to repeal and replace Obamacare, Ann Marie is that candidate. She is the daughter of hardworking immigrants who knows what makes this country great: our free market work ethic where anyone with a dream and the dedication to work hard for it can achieve success. Being a proud mother of six and grandmother of 11 gives this New York "mama grizzly" a wonderful incentive to work hard to make sure our country remains the same land of opportunity for future generations of Americans.

When I visited Central New York last year with my daughter Willow, I remember telling her that there must be something in the water in this region of the country to produce so many strong, independent, historic women leaders. The women's movement in America has its roots in Seneca Falls, New York, and Ann Marie is among today's strong women leaders.

Please join me in supporting this dedicated public servant by visiting her website at www.buerkleforcongress.com and following her on Facebook and Twitter.

- Sarah Palin

Congressional news updates: Fracking, candidate silence, and more proof that local Democrats strategy is to kill jobs

By Sam Foster

I'm back from a small Fourth of July break and sure enough, there is a lot of news buzzing about in NY's congressional elections.  Here is a taste of what is going on…

While Massa couldn't get enough fracking, upstate Dems are working hard to end fracking for everyone

I have yet to take an official position on hydro-fracking.  Not to be confused with Massa's favorite use of the term.  Hydro-fracking is used by the natural gas industry to drill and recover natural gas and is probably one of the seven deadly sins in the church of global warming.  However, I'm going to need to get schooled soon, because upstate Dems seen hell bent on making it a big issue in November.  

Mike Arcuri of NY's 24^th congressional district has all but guaranteed that the issue will be front and center in his bid for reelection as he successfully introduced an amendment that repeals an EPA waiver on certain environmental impacts involved with fracking.

NY-29 candidate Matt Zeller has also come out against Hydro-fracking.  Maurice Hinchey has been at it too.  All the while NY legislature is considering a fracking ban.

Democrat concerns may be warranted, but Republican challengers in NYS ought to be prepared to talk fracking this November.  Democrats have made no secret that their election strategy will be to talk local issues and it seems that fracking and the Marcellus Shale might be their holy grail for local issues in the months to come.

Media silence is not golden for candidates Matt Zeller and Janice Volk

An emailor sent me a note last Friday commenting that democrat candidate Matt Zeller's website is fairly boilerplate to the national Democratic platform.  While Zeller's youth and political inexperience has benefits in the polls, in the end, people gravitate toward leadership and a website devoid of any personal opinions is not going to sell.  Silence is also not going to sell.

Last weekend, the Elmira Gazette featured local politician's views on the Kegan nomination.  One line said it all for Zeller and Republican hopeful Janice Volk:

We also reached out to republican candidate Janice Volk for a comment but were unable to get a response.

Democratic candidate Matthew Zeller has also yet to get back to us with his opinion.

Zeller has also avoided comment on March's health care vote.  However, Zeller cannot afford to remain unquoted on important issues in local newspapers, especially when local voters have little name recognition.  I myself have experienced a bout of the "Zeller silent treatment."  

Similarly, the failure of Janice Volk to take advantage of free press coverage is surprising.  To date, her only major quote in the local press has been about how "good people don't become collection's lawyers."  Somehow I doubt this is the quote she wants primary voters to remember her by, but her campaign needs to realize that static does not google well.

The entire NY congressional agenda summed up in a single opinion piece

Douglas Turner had an amazing opinion piece this weekend in the Buffalo News.  It's a lesson in how Democrats Dan Maffei, Kurstin Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer hope to send all business overseas by getting cozy with big labor.  This ought to be required reading for anyone living in the 25^th Congressional district or NYS for that matter.

WASHINGTON — Six years ago, Sen. Charles E. Schumer urged company site selectors to take a fresh look at upstate New York. He said Buffalo and Rochester were among the best places in the country to build a factory.

What would those private sector decision- makers think now of the campaign that Schumer and the rest of the state's Democratic notables are making to muscle a national company into making a deal with its labor union?

The dispute — a knot in the state's shredding business climate — centers on a Motts apple juice factory in the hamlet of Williamson. It sidles up to Lake Ontario east of Rochester in apple country.

It's owned by Dr Pepper Snapple Group, a new conglomerate spun off from a British firm. It makes 7-Up and dozens of other non-cola drinks. The new owners told 300 stunned workers at the juice plant they would have to accept

harsh take-backs if they wanted a new contract. Union bargainers heard these include pension freezes, a wage cut, reduced company payments to 401(k)s, higher contributions for health insurance and other big sacrifices.

There was a day when even Democratic officials kept their mitts off a private labor dispute where there was no finding of unfair labor practices, and no violence.

But the Retail Wholesale&Department Store Union called in its chits with state Democrats early in the game. State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli reacted with an astonishing letter to Dr Pepper offices on his official stationery.

DiNapoli said he controls $33 million in Dr Pepper stock as trustee of the state employees' retirement fund. He warned the company against being seen as "anti-labor" and then said an unhappy work force might cut profitability and the value of the stock. It looked like a threat he might dump 938,000 shares if Dr Pepper didn't knuckle under.

DiNapoli's menacing letter reached Dr Pepper offices in Plano, Texas, six weeks before the union struck Motts on May 23.

After Motts hired temporary workers to keep the plant running, Schumer, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Sean Coffey, the party's candidate for attorney general, all joined in. They urged Dr Pepper to "return to the bargaining table," which is code for softening their demands for take-backs. The letter from Schumer, influential on the Senate panel dealing with anti-trust, said it was in Dr Pepper's "best interest."

The letters from Schumer and others raised a myth that the region's economy would be hurt by the strike. The plant is still running. Apples are being bought and processed.

It is dumb for an outsider like me to take sides in a labor dispute, but this hasn't stopped Schumer, DiNapoli, Cuomo and Gillibrand from interfering, although none has any experience in any industry whatsoever.

Rep. Dan Maffei, D-Syracuse, heroically insists the dispute "is about working people in Wayne County versus corporate greed in Texas."

It may also be about whether the plant winds up shuttered. It is about whether Maffei and the others are kidding the locals into thinking they can hold back the eternal night of wage competition from China, where half the apple juice consumed in the United States is made.

"We have to protect our people," a Cuomo partisan said. Which people: the union members or the temps?

Hardly anyone's eyebrows are raised these days when the state's top Democrats seek to set wages and benefits in private companies. Which tells you about the upstate mind-set and where it leads. Here is where upstate is now with that world view: the worst business climate in the country; the slowest income growth except Michigan and Ohio; the nation's lowest population growth; and an average 8 percent manufacturing job loss in the Buffalo and Rochester areas.

Ann Marie Buerkle Challenging Dan Maffei

By Sam Foster

Lonely Conservative has the best info on conservative Dan Maffei challenger Ann Marie Buerkle. Below is her exclusive interview from March 2010.

I had a nice chat with Ann Marie Buerkle this afternoon. She’s a mother of six and a grandmother of eleven, all while building a successful career as a registered nurse and an attorney. She represented a local hospital for years. I’d say she knows health care better than most of the folks in Washington, DC; certainly more than her opponent in the NY25 race, incumbent Dan Maffei.

Ann Marie picked up the endorsement of the Conservative Party in all four of the counties making up NY 25. She received the GOP nod in three out of the four. She sounds to me like a true conservative. She’s pro-life, she wants the Democrats’ health care bills to be scrapped, she’s against cap and tax and she signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge. She is also against the stimulus. She told me it didn’t do anything to create jobs, citing the record high unemployment and underemployment.

Buerkle told me job creation isn’t the role of the federal government. The government’s role is to foster an environment where employers feel comfortable hiring and investing. She supports tax cuts and wants the Bush tax cuts made permanent. She believes all the talk about cap and trade has cast a pall over American businesses.

Ann Marie Buerkle grew up here in Central New York, and unlike Maffei, she’s lived and worked in the community her entire life. She’s well aware of the exodus the young are making out of our area, as five of her six children have moved out of state. She said the Democrats’ health care bills will only make things worse. Expanding Medicaid will drive up property taxes – the federal government only picks up half the Medicaid tab, the other half is divided evenly between the state and the counties.

The other Republican in the race, Mark Bitz, has put his campaign on hold. He said he will wait and see if Buerkle’s campaign gains traction, and if so, he won’t mount a primary challenge. Personally, I believe the only person a GOP primary would help is Dan Maffei.

I got the impression that Buerkle is a serious woman who recognizes the serious issues facing all of us.

Click here if you’d like to donate to Ann Marie Buerkle’s campaign. She can use the help. Dan Maffei has quite the war chest – funded primarily by folks outside the district.