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Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Update on NY-25 Election Gridlock between Ann Marie Buerkle and Dan Maffei

By Sam Foster

Karen, at Lonely Conservative , and I have been going back and forth about where NY-25 is going to fall when all is said and done. We eagerly await the Wayne County results.

I'm continuing to look for coverage and results from Wayne County's uncounted precints. According to reports, the count was suppose to be finished today at 4, but with all the big election news, I'm not surprised that I cannot yet find the results. Unfortunatly, we are beholden to the media gods to report what may already be history.

I suggest keeping an eye on Jim Kenyon of CNY, he seems to be keeping an eye on the developments. But, it may be another night before we find out how much Maffei's lead is cut by the remaining votes.

Speaking of how many votes may be at stake, there were 42,000 votes cast for NY-25th district in 2008 and 27,000 for 2006. I'll suggest that turnout was somewhere inbetween but closer to 27,000. That leaves, at a guess, about 10,000-15,000. If Buerkle can acheive the 8 point lead she had in Cuyuga County, Maffei's lead would be cut in half.

This does not seem to be an unreasonable guesstimate, since Wayne County swung more for Paladino than did Cuyuga County did (so far). We may be looking at an even smaller lead for Maffei.

However, large or small it may be, my prediction is that Maffei will hold a vote count lead going into the absentee count. Also, I think recanvassing is more likely to find missing Maffei votes than Ann Marie Buerkle. Regardless, this is going to come down to the wire and I think Ann Marie Buerkle has a great chance of emerging victorious.


Fenway_Nation said...

Nice! The Lonely Conservative just reported that Buerkle won Wayne county by such a large margin that it's put her up a few hundred ballots already....even tho' it's unofficial.

conservative generation said...

It's true, but she still has a hurdle to clear in the absentee ballots, most are from Syracuse and Syracuse went for Maffei, big time.

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