Carl Paladino to Post reporter Fred Dicker: “I’ll take you out:” Will it help or hurt Paladino?

 By Sam Foster

Last night, NY Gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino gave a state-wide audience a taste of why he's referred to as "Crazy Carl."

NY Post reports:

Instead of responding to Dicker's question, Paladino accused him of sending a "goon" to stake out his former mistress at the home where she lives with their love child.

Sunday's Post featured a front-page story about Paladino's wife, Cathy, and his ex-lover, Suzanne Brady. It included an exclusive interview with Cathy Paladino.

"You send another goon to my daughter's house and I'll take you out, buddy!" Paladino told Dicker.

When Dicker asked how he planned to do that, Paladino replied, "Watch!"
"Are you threatening me?" Dicker asked.

When the candidate's aides jumped in to separate the men, Paladino, referring to Dicker, told them, "F- -k him."

Paladino's campaign manager, Michael Caputo, then got involved, and began arguing with Dicker.

Jammie Wearing Fool thinks it's over for Paladino, but there are those that disagree…

"…at a time when voters are furious at government, might Paladino's confrontation actually give him a boost?"

That's the Washington Post for your information.  In fact, WaPo is conducting an unofficial poll and so far, there is no plurality of opinion on a topic most would conclude with a "hell yeah it hurts Paladino."  

But NY is the place John Steinbeck once penned "neither good nor bad but unique."  It's the home of mega-radio shock jock Howard Stern.  NY is a place where polling shows that a majority of people in the state had no problem with Paladino's distasteful emails.  It's a place where sometimes, the bad guy is hero.

Read the Observer interview on Paladino yesterday and you get a different picture than the one hitting NY newsstands this morning; a meme where the Paladino campaign is playing a calculated, but high risk game of political Russian roulette from a campaign manager who once advised Boris Yeltsin.  

Honestly, Paladino has run for office before, but his name was Tom Golisano.  The quiet, upstate reformer was drowned out by the distant NY press.  Paladino throws a grenade everyday, ensuring a headline everyday, but are they useful?  Has Golisano-ism resurrected in Paladino, but Jerry Springer style?    Was his outburst a display of rage over the paparazzi stalking of his ten-year-old daughter as Politico pens, Crazy Carl being crazy, or a political calculation on the same day Gallup declares that distrust in the media is at an all time high?  

November will tell all.

Paladino to The View’s Joy Behar: “She’s suffering from a sudden hot flash”

By Sam Foster
Via WGRZ

I'm sure most of you may not be familiar with the brazen Carl Paladino politicking style.  If you want to know how this little known businessman from Buffalo won a landslide primary victory over Rick Lazio and why the Democrat Andrew Cuomo can't find an angle of attack on Paladino here's an example for you.  

Buffalo's WGRZ reports:

On Monday's edition of the ABC talk show, co-host Joy Behar said Paladino "could win if all his illegitimate children vote."

The Paladino campaign fired back with the following statement:

"Joy Behar should be absolutely ashamed of herself for referring to Carl's daughter as illegimate. She's a child and does not deserve that kind of treatment from a woman who should know better. That's catty, it's pissy and strikes of something that someone would say when suffering from a sudden hot flash. The only person here who's illegimate is Joy Behar's hairstylist. Joy is off carl paladino's christmas card list."

You can watch Joy's comments on The View here.

Paladino; love him, hate him, but the man certainly knows how to say something that people are going to be talking about.  

Murphy’s big campaign messaging confusion: Where was Murphy again when aide Josh Schwerin called him an Independent?

By Sam Foster

Via Capital Confidential

"Everyone knows that Scott is an independent voice in Washington," said Murphy's aide Josh Schwerin.

Even as these words from the Murphy campaign found their way into the print media, Scott Murphy was attending a DCCC dinner with President Obama and Nancy Pelosi.  Not only was Murphy in attendance, but he was singled out by President Obama as someone who's reelection was critical to guarding his agenda.

But of course, he is an "independent voice" in Washington.

So who didn't read the memo?  Murphy's aide Josh Schwerin or Scott Murphy?

More on Scott Murphy's disconnected campaign…

Communications director for Chris Gibson, Dan Odescalchi sent out the following fact check through the Gibson press releases.

Murphy's Rhetoric: Scott Murphy stated in a May 27, 2010 press release that the "key to our economic recovery will be the growth and success of our small businesses.  We must cut taxes to spur innovation and give relief to our hardworking middle-class families."
 
Our Reality:  Scott Murphy's position on renewing the People's Tax Cuts hurts small businesses.  75 percent of small businesses are organized in such a way that they pay taxes under the individual tax rate structure.  Furthermore, about 68 percent of all manufacturers are organized to file at the individual rate so the impact will be felt by these critical job creators.

Murphy's Rhetoric: On March 24, on the floor of the House of Representatives, Scott Murphy said of the government takeover of healthcare, "This bill is going to help our small businesses… "
 
Our Reality:  But again, his rhetoric does NOT match his record. On August 9th, the Health Benefits Administrators in the region received notice that MVP is looking to increase rates by 30% to 35% because of "… the benefit expansions required by Federal and state health care reform legislation." Many local area businesses rely on MVP to provide healthcare benefits for their employees. National trends echo what we are seeing here in the 20th district.
 

Murphy's Rhetoric:  Of the Healthcare bill, Murphy said, "This bill is going to help our small businesses…"

Our Reality:  Businesses will have to send Form 1099s for every business to business transaction of $600 or more.  While Murphy has introduced legislation to address this issue, it is like starting a fire and then taking credit for calling the fire department to put it out.  
 
The Congressman is wrong. By increasing the cost of providing healthcare coverage, adding more regulatory burdens and further taxing our small businesses, his votes deter job creation and small business expansion.
 

Quietly: NY Senate race goes into play as Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand maintains small lead over Joe DioGuardi

By Sam Foster
H/T to Lonely Conservative

Not one, but two polls are out showing the Gillibrand/DioGuardi race has dramatically tightened and Kirsten Gillibrand, known by Senate Democrats as "the Hottest," is now looking vulnerable.

First, a poll by Survey USA shows Gillibrand leading by only a single point:

Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand and former Congressman Republican Joe DioGuardi today finish effectively even, Gillibrand's nominal 1-point lead being within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Gillibrand leads in the 5 boroughs of NYC, trails elsewhere. Men vote Republican, women vote Democrat and, in this contest, cancel each other out. Lower-income voters break significantly Democrat. Middle-income and upper-income voters break slightly Republican.

Today's Q-Poll has Gillibrand under 50% (aka she's in the "Danger Zone") and leading by only six points:

In numbers very similar to the ones released yesterday on the governor's race, Quinnipiac University's data out this morning shows Democratic Sen. Kristen Gillibrand leading barely-known GOP rival Joe DioGuardi by just six points.

Gillibrand leads 48 percent to 42 eprcent, and the pair is split basically evenly among independent voters, the survey found.

Gillibrand wins among DEmocrats, 86 percent to 9 percent, and DioGuardi has 88 percent of Republicans to 8 percent of independents.

This compares to a 15 point lead in the Q-Poll less then a month ago.  I'm not sure what's gotten into the water in NY, but for Conservative voters it may be the smell of blood.  It is interesting though, thanks to previous polling NY was not considered in play.  Now that the polls flip, how long will it take for folks to catch on?

Siena Poll for NY-29: Tom Reed leads Democrat Matt Zeller by 14 points

By Sam Foster

Via NY Daily News:

By Siena's tally, Reed is up 44% to 30% over Zeller, but fully 26% of voters have yet to make up their minds.

The region has a significant Republican enrollment edge, noted Siena's Steve Greenberg. But "While each candidate has virtually the same percentage of voters who have favorable or unfavorable views of them, Reed is unknown to more than half of the voters and Zeller is unknown to more than three-quarters. Only 16% of voters have seen or heard a Reed commercial and only about one in ten have heard or seen an ad for Zeller."

The real Scott Murphy seen partying at the Roosevelt Hotel with President Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Charlie Rangel

By Sam Foster

 

"the last election was about a changing of the guard. This election is about guarding the change."

 

That's how President Obama summed up his efforts this evening at the Roosevelt Hotel in NYC.  He was at a DCCC fundraising event for the NY Democrat congressional delegation. 

 

All the big leaders from Washington were present including Nancy Pelosi and the ethically deprived Charlie Rangel.  Yes, all the big supporters of the Obama agenda, those who need "guarding" as Obama put it, were present.  So when Obama singled out Murphy as one of the Democrats present at the event, who would be surprised?  That is unless you've seen Murphy's ads or watched Murphy pretend to be disassociated with the Washington agenda.

 

If anyone wonders what Scott Murphy is truly about, the real Scott Murphy was at the Roosevelt Hotel this evening, in NYC.

Breaking: Court throws out John Hall suit challenging Nan Hayworth’s spot on the Independence ballot

By Sam Foster

This afternoon, the court hearing John Hall's suit against Nan Hayworth was thrown out of court.  The suit was a political maneuver to bump Hayworth off of one of the third party lines.

I wrote about Hall's political motivation for doing so earlier and despite the shrill, over-hyped accusations by leftwing bloggers, Hayworth prevailed in clearing her campaign.  

Nan Hayworth's press release had the following statements:

"It's highly unfortunate that during the course of the lawsuit, without any foundation whatsoever, Hall's campaign accused some very well-meaning people – mainly notaries – of potential fraud and misconduct. That conduct simply didn't happen," said Hayworth campaign manager John Hicks. "It's also unfortunate that this issue has taken up not only the court's time and resources, but has also distracted from the urgent matters we face in District 19 involving jobs and the economy."

Hayworth communications director Douglas Cunningham said, "I think we now know why John Hall was so eager to disseminate fabrications about what was actually going on in the courtroom in Albany. He would rather talk about anything else except his record, which is one of lost jobs and failed big-government programs. I think it's clear what the voters want to focus on, and that's renewing our economy, fixing the abysmal jobs picture and restraining a government that's too big and too costly."

Read the Judge's decision below:

Matt Doheny prevails in NY-23, waiting to hear if Doug Hoffman will mount a third party run

By Sam Foster

This just in, Matt Doheny just clinched the Republican ballot in NY-23.  We are still waiting to hear if Doug Hoffman still plans on mounting a third party challenge.

Via Watertown Daily Times:

Republican Matthew A. Doheny is the presumptive winner of the GOP primary for the 23rd U.S. Congressional District.

Mr. Doheny, Watertown, has a 769-vote lead over opponent Douglas L. Hoffman, Saranac Lake.

With 804 absentee ballots left to be counted, Mr. Hoffman would need more than 98 percent of the votes.

Mr. Doheny added 76 votes in St. Lawrence County and 12 in Lewis County on Wednesday afternoon. He currently leads 16,016 to Mr. Hoffman's 15,247.

Oneida County started counting absentee ballots today, but a spokeswoman said results will not be available until Friday. Election boards in six district counties begin counting absentees Tuesday, with St. Lawrence and Clinton counties starting today. Lewis County starts Thursday.

I will check with the Tea Party to see if Mark Barie will endorse Matt Doheny.

Hall’s constituency is Nancy Pelosi? John Hall calls in sick to NY-19 debate with Nan Hayworth

By Sam Foster

With Republican Nan Hayworth the projected leader in NY-19, it would seem strange for Democrat incumbent John Hall to send someone else to debate Nan Hayworth, but that is exactly what happened yesterday.

According to Nan's press release:

The Dutchess County Association of Realtors invited both Dr. Nan Hayworth, Republican nominee for the 19th Congressional district, and Congressman John Hall (D) to a debate that was set for today in Poughkeepsie, but only Hayworth showed up. The debate covered a range of issues affecting small businesses and the Realtor community.

John Hall did not attend, and the Mayor of Beacon, Steve Gold, read Hall's answers in his place.
 
The House of Representatives did not meet today for votes or other legislative matters.
 
John Hicks, Campaign Manager, released this statement:
 
"This is another example of the absentee John Hall whose only constituency is Nancy Pelosi. Debates and the free exchange of ideas are a cornerstone of the American democratic system. Despite assurances from Hall himself and his staff that there would be a debate once the Republican nominee was named, Hall ducked out."

Meanwhile, Hall wants OFA to canvass and make up for his campaign shortcomings.  

Carl Paladino gets big bump in race against Andrew Cuomo in new Quinnipiac Poll

By Sam Foster
Via Capital Tonight

The race for NY Governor just got exciting.  Today's Q-Poll has Crazy Carl Paladino and Andrew Cuomo neck-and-neck with Cuomo leading 49-43.

Today's Q poll finds GOP gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino has dramatically reduced the double-digit lead long enjoyed by his Democratic opponent, AG Andrew Cuomo, coming within just six percentage points of the once-comfortable frontrunner and turning this contest into a real horse race.

In a head-to-head match-up among likely voters, Cuomo leads Paladino, 49-43. Seven percent of voters are still undecided and 21 percent who said they prefer one candidate to the other said they might yet change their minds before the November election.

Also in the poll, Paladino is a man's man, polling 49-46 among men.

Ok, poll data out of the way.  Here is the inside scoop on two meme's.  

First is NY Times Nate Silver's point that these polls are including Rick Lazio running under the conservative banner.

Still, there is one clear flaw with this poll, which is that it did not include an option for Mr. Lazio, who – even as he lost to Mr. Paladino among Republicans — won the Conservative Party's nomination for governor and is expected to remain in the race. The Conservative Party is a big deal here in New York because of fusion voting, which allows multiple parties to endorse the same candidate on the ballot (Mr. Cuomo, for instance, is the nominee of the Democrats, as well as the liberal Working Families' Party). Some voters in New York look toward the endorsements of the Conservative Party and the Working Families' Party when filling out their ballots, and they can sometimes tip the outcome in a race.

This one is a red herring argument and I'm sorry Nate, you understand the term fusion voting, but not how it plays out in this election.  Here is why.

The pick of Rick Lazio on the Conservative Party line was purely a political move not an ideological one.  A Party's position on the ballot is determined by the party votes in the gubernatorial race, the Conservative Party thought that Lazio would be the Republican candidate so they bet on Lazio.  By doing so, they ensure that the Conservative line stays near the top.  However, there is no confusion in NY that Carl Paladino is the more conservative candidate, thus the idea that Lazio's Conservative ballot line is going to draw significant conservative votes away from the more conservative candidate is a bridge too far.  Still, it could mean the difference in a very close race, but it means little in polling.

The other proof is the Republican primary itself.  The fact is that many, myself included, vote the conservative line but are registered Republicans.  Thus, many people who normally vote the conservative line were present giving Paladino a landslide victory in the primaries.

The second meme, is that Cuomo's team is completely flummoxed by Crazy Carl.  They don't know what to do and every step they take proves it.

Maggie Haberman reports:

The Daily News writes up an account of a meeting with Cuomo yesterday as his team tries to figure out the best line of attack against Paladino:

"If a guy says you have no cojones, how do you punch him back, call him an a--hole?" the Democratic gubernatorial candidate fumed in a secret talk to his team, one insider said.
"We have all this stuff [on Paladino] and we're on the defensive," Cuomo groused, the insider added.
While Cuomo's adviser Ben Lawsky and his communications team of Marissa Shorenstein, Phil Singer and Josh Vlasto listened, the unhappy candidate wondered aloud what Paladino's pit bull campaign manager Michael Caputo would do with similar dirt.

So far, Cuomo's team has stuck largely to an old playbook of identity politics and elevating Paladino's perceived negatives, without doing much more to hang flesh on the bones of the Democrat's own ideas or his public persona.

It's been a decidedly mixed bag - a letter put out by former Mayor Koch, former Republican Sen. Al D'Amato and former state Comptroller Carl McCall got a mixed reception in terms of the message, given that all three are longtime politicians and Cuomo is running as the anti-Albany reformer.

Of course, word of Cuomo wanting to call Paladino 'an a--hole' getting out publicly may have accomplished the Democrat's aim of saying what he wanted through other people, and letting supporters know they're taking Paladino seriously.

However, Paladino and his campaign manager Michael Caputo have been answering every punch with a roundhouse kick, and in their own voices. And as a smart reader noted, a 'war council' meeting, if it really was prompted just by an angry letter, seems like a strong reaction to a pretty simple campaign tactic, while word of the meeting leaking out appears indecisive.

 
Brace yourselves, hurricane Carl is touching down in NY.

Via Memeorandum

Ted Danz (NY-21) Speaks to the Schoharie County Young Republicans

Congressional candidate for the NY-21 district Ted Danz spoke to the Schoharie County Young Republicans on Monday, September 20. The Young Republicans recently took part in a sign wave for Mr. Danz on Saturday, September 18 in Cobleskill.

Mr. Danz hails from Guilderland and is a successful entrepreneur. He is a veteran of the US Navy and is married with five children.

Mr. Danz told members of the club that "We've got to turn this economy around" and that "I would spend $117 million if we got big industry to come in from another country."

As far as the government was concerned, Mr. Danz was emphatic: "Every time the government gets involved with something it gets screwed up." and that "We've got people making deals that aren't dealmakers. We have politicians making deals with big business and big business is eating them alive."

Chairman Timothy Knight of Richmondville was firm in his commitment to the Danz campaign. "I want him to win Schoharie County," he said, "Tonko only won it by 400 votes." Knight plans to put up signs for Mr. Danz around the County.

Election day is Tuesday, November 2nd.

http://www.teddanzforcongress.com/

Searching for a reason to vote Matt Doheny instead of Doug Hoffman in NY-23

By Sam Foster

After last Tuesday's primary failed to produce a clear winner for the Republican ballot line for NY's 23^rd congressional district, we now wait for tomorrow's count of the more than 1,900 absentee ballots that remain outstanding.  However, regardless of the outcome tomorrow, I do not relish the decision that sits before the conservative voters of NY-23.

If Doug Hoffman loses the Republican primary, should conservative voters continue support for Doug in a three-way race or pick up the banner for Matt Doheny?  Already, local UNYTEA leader Mark Barie is flirting with the idea of switching sides and while I generally feel strongly about voting for the most conservative candidate, I must admit that the allure of defeating Bill Owens by supporting Doheny is a tempting proposition.  I can't tell the voters of NY-23 what is best for them, but here are the issues that I think conservatives are dealing with in weighing their support for Doug Hoffman.

First of all, let's be clear on one thing, I have been staunchly opposed to Matt Doheny's candidacy and not because I love Doug Hoffman.  To date, I've never written in support of Mr. Hoffman.  Here is why I've been vocal in opposition to Matt Doheny:

While the media touts how conservative his views are, he has no voting record.  We are left with his word and the endorsements of the local GOP.  While Doheny's word is unverifiable, the local GOP chairmen have a terrible record in backing RHINOs.  Not just the ACORN sponsored Dede Scozzafava, but former congressman John McHugh who was one of eight Republicans to vote in favor of Cap and Trade before joining the Obama administration.  

Doheny hasn't broken from the Republican pack either, he's been careful not to alienate party bosses with an admission of guilt in financially supporting Scozzafava.  He also put a large amount of political donations to work to get local Republican support.  But, he also gotten on the ground and went out to meet the voters.  He's done the best job campaigning that one can possibly do.

Is Doheny a true conservative, willing to buck the Republican's should Boehner come up short on items of critical importance like Repeal and Replace?  The answer is, no one knows, but there are valid suspicions.

However, a Doheny win over Doug Hoffman will prove me wrong in his electability.  I've argued that his former BUI charges will be toxic to the NY-23 voters.  Clearly, voters feel differently and strongly about it too or they wouldn't have made the trip to the primary polls.

For a week now Doug Hoffman has been in hiding, dodging reporters and supporters.  While, I don't doubt Hoffman's ability to buck the Republicans, he has not stepped up in the arena of leadership and being down in the vote count is a critical time to take ownership of your campaign, especially if you plan on mounting a third party bid.

It is hard to imagine that conservatives were not showing up en masse for NY-23 elections and that election may swing for Doheny, conservative votes included.  Ought Doug Hoffman let the voter's will decide NY-23?

Meanwhile, the left is salivating at a NY-23 conservative meltdown.  Comments from liberal sites like TPMDC that sound like:

Oh please, do let Hoffman split the Conservative ballot again and give Dem's a good shot at retaining hold of this seat.
 
Give one pause to choose wisely where to place one's vote.

So do conservatives take a chance on Matt Doheny?  An untested, but avowed conservative?  It sounds like such and easy choice, so why do I get that sucker feeling?

Siena polling for NY-24: Arcuri leading Hanna by 8

By Sam Foster
Via Siena Poll

Siena polls continue to confound.  Today's poll released has Democrat Mike Arcuri leading Republican challenger Richard Hanna by 8 points.  What is most confusing is that Arcuri is getting a boost from his Obama stimulus vote.

From the poll:

Six weeks before Election Day, Representative Michael Arcuri holds an eight point lead,
48-40 percent, over Republican challenger Richard Hanna in this hotly contested rematch of the 2008 race that Arcuri won 52-48 percent. On a series of six issues, voters give Arcuri the edge on four, Hanna the edge onone, and on the issue of taxes, voters see it as a toss-up, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely voters released today. Voters support President Obama's stimulus proposal and his proposal to
eliminate tax cuts for the wealthy. They are evenly split on whether to implement or repeal the recently passed federal health care reform legislation.

I don't know whether this is good news for Mike Arcuri or not, Siena had Lazio and Paladino neck-and-neck just before Lazio was trounced.

Video: Ann Marie Buerkle's 'Rally for Victory' Speech

Here's the complete, uncut video of Ann Marie Buerkle's Constitution Day speech at her rally for victory. I have to tell you, this woman really gets it. One thing you don't see in the video are the number of hands that went up when Buerkle asked how many people had never been involved in a political campaign before.

If you don't know who Ann Marie Buerkle is, or what she stands for, get comfortable, grab a drink and watch this video.

The crowd was quite lively, and quite a few families showed up. My kids were running around having a good ole time.




This is our chance to send a conservative woman from New York to Congress.

ANN MARIE BUERKLE FOR CONGRESS!

Read more at The Lonely Conservative. Also be sure to check out the video and photos of the infiltrators Dan Maffei sent into the rally.

Poll for NY's 19th congressional district: Daily Kos Poll shows Nan Hayworth in neck-in-neck race with John Hall

By Sam Foster
Via NRO

A Daily Kos poll is showing NY-19 as a toss-up.

Jim Geraghty at NRO writes:

On Election Day 2008, Barack Obama carried New York’s 19th Congressional District, 51 percent to 48 percent. The incumbent Democrat, John Hall, won by a healthy 59 percent to 41 percent margin.

Today, Daily Kos releases a PPP poll of the district showing incumbent Hall trailing GOP challenger Nan Hayworth, 42 percent to 44 percent; Hall has a very modest lead over another GOP challenger, Neil DiCarlo, 42 percent to 39 percent.

And Obama is at 39 percent approval, 56 percent disapproval within the district.

Pollster Tom Jensen elaborates:

[I]ntensity isn’t really the issue. We’re finding an electorate in NY-19 that supported Barack Obama by a point, not much of a drop from his 3 point win there. … The problem in NY-19 is that Obama voters have soured on him to a much greater extent than they have nationally. Only 75% of his supporters still approve of the job he’s doing and his loss of support is rubbing off on Hall. With the Obama voters who now disapprove of or are ambivalent toward him Nan Hayworth has a 56-28 lead. Nationally our last poll still found 86% ofObama voters approving of him so this is an unusually disenchanted district.

This isn't any Republican push poll either. It's the ultra-liberal Daily Kos. If they show Hall in trouble, then it's probably the best case scenario.

NY Primary results for NY's 23rd congressional district; No clear winner yet, too close to call

by the Left Coast Rebel
Cross Posted at Left Coast Rebel

Call in the attorneys, perhaps. It seems things (once again) in NY 23 have come down to a razor-thin race and perhaps may lead to a stall of sorts. Upstate NY's NCPR:

(11:56 pm) Matt Doheny appears to have stopped short of a victory speech in Watertown, but the crowd there is apparently pumped by their candidate's significant lead.

The Watertown Daily Times puts Doug Hoffman's deficit at around 600 votes, with only 13 districts outstanding.

That means it's within the margin of the absentee votes, but it would take a really crazy margin of absentees to overturn that kind of advantage…

We'll see how this pans out.

Updated: AP calls it for Doheny?:

(Canton 12:02 am) From the Associated Press:

BULLETIN (AP) _ Matthew Doheny, GOP, nominated U.S. House, District 23, New York.

I have a feeling the dust will settle on this one tomorrow....

Update:

Syracuse's Post-Standard reports that Doheny has a 600 vote lead, but Hoffman is making no consession as of yet. There are 1,700 absentee ballots and recanvassing to be done. After last year's recanvassing put Hoffman much closer to Bill Owens, I can see why.

By 2:15 a.m, today, Doheny had not declared victory and Hoffman had not conceded the election.

“We’re very pleased with the trend that we have seen tonight,” said Alison Power, speaking for Doheny. “The one thing that is certain is that we will be pulling together and beating Bill Owens in November.”

Hoffman's campaign insisted that the election was far from over, and planned to wait for the results of a recanvassing and the tabulation of absentee ballots.

“This race has turned into a real nail-biter and we plan to count every last vote,” Rob Ryan, Hoffman’s spokesman, said at 12:30 a.m. “In the end, we remain confident that Doug Hoffman will be victorious.”

With at least eight of the 11 counties in the sprawling district reporting 100 percent returns, Doheny led Hoffman, 15,106 to 14,495. About 1,700 absentee ballots remained to be counted, according to Hoffman’s campaign.

Ryan noted that the recount was just as important as the absentee ballots, given what happened in the 23rd District special election last year. Hoffman was cheated of about 1,200 votes in the initial count in Oswego County due to a tabulation error.

NY Primary Results: Live Blogging the primary results for NY's 23rd congressional district

By Sam Foster

The polls closed at 9pm here in NY and the returns are about to roll in. I'll be trying to live-blog the returns for NY-23. I'll also be keeping tabs on the Republican gubernatorial race, senate races, NY-1 and NY-15 aka the Rangel race.

If you are interested in a preview of what's at stake in the NY primaries, check out my earlier post at Left Coast Rebel.

NCPR is also live blogging from NY-23 and I suspect they'll be the first to know the results of the race between Doug Hoffman and Matt Doheny.

I'll be reviewing the returns at NY Times.

See Coverage Below for Updates:

11:52 pm EST: It's going to be a close one, but I believe Doheny will emerge victorious tonight, but boy oh boy...great turnout in NY-23.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 12,667 53%
Douglas Hoffman 11,249 47%
. 92% reporting

11:47 pm EST: Charlie Rangel officially wins. Jay Townsend has also clinched victory for a run against Chuck Schumer.

11:30 pm EST: Things are looking up for Bill Owens. Doheny may be outside the absentee ballot margin. It's looking like Hoffman needs to win big in Clinton County.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 12,167 53%
Douglas Hoffman 10,847 47%
. 80% reporting

11:23 pm EST: "This isn't a win for Charlie Rangel, this is our community's win..." Charlie Rangel unofficially claims victory...for...the...people?

11:21 pm EST: 27 East News is reporting that Randy Altschuler has officially claimed victory for NY-1.

Randy Altschuler, a business owner from St. James, secured both the Republican and Conservative party lines in hard-fought primary elections on Tuesday, making him the official candidate for both parties for the 1st District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Mr. Altschuler, 39, will now go on to face U.S. Representative Tim Bishop of Southampton, the Democratic incumbent, on Election Day in November. Mr. Bishop, who is also endorsed by the Independence Party, is seeking his fifth term in Congress.

With more than three quarters of the Election Districts reporting on Tuesday night, unofficial results from the Suffolk County Board of Elections showed that Mr. Altschuler had a clear lead ahead of his Republican primary opponents, Chris Cox of Westhampton Beach and George Demos of Ronkonkoma. Republican leaders called the race a short time later.

“Randy Altschuler clearly is the victor in this race,” Suffolk County Republican Party Chairman John Jay LaValle said shortly before 10:30 p.m. At that time, Mr. Altschuler had received 46 percent of the votes, to Mr. Demos’s 31 percent and Mr. Cox’s 24 percent.

11:18 pm EST: Hoffman leading in Essex County and leading big in Clinton County

Essex County
Hoffman: 490

Doheny: 427

No percentage or number of precincts specified.

Clinton County
Hoffman: 1,560

Doheny: 883

37 of 70 districts reporting.



11:13 pm EST: Carl Paladino claims victory over Rick Lazio in NY to take on heavily favored Andrew Cuomo.

Via Washington Post

NEW YORK (AP) - Political novice and tea party ally Carl Paladino has beaten the Republican designee in the race for the party's nomination for New York governor.

Paladino rode a wave of voter anger on his way to defeating former Congressman Rick Lazio. It's another blow to the GOP in a heavily Democratic state.

Paladino, a millionaire Buffalo developer, will now take on the popular and well-financed Democratic attorney general, Andrew Cuomo, in November.

Paladino lost to Lazio at the state GOP convention but then petitioned his way to the primary by securing 30,000 Republican signatures statewide.

11:02 pm EST: HALFTIME! Most districts are close to 50% reporting. Here is the score board.

Paladino with a commanding lead so far.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Carl Paladino 161,024 67%
Rick Lazio 80,439 33%
. 43% reporting

Joe Dioguardi has a small lead over David Malpass

Republicans Votes Pct.
Joseph DioGuardi 91,102 41%
David Malpass 86,274 39%
Bruce Blakeman 43,099 20%
41% reporting

Looks like Jay Townsend will be taking on Chuck Schumer. Good luck...

Republicans Votes Pct.
Jay Townsend 117,545 56%
Gary Berntsen 91,150 44%
. 41% reporting

Looks like Randy Altschuler is the candidate for NY-1. Tim Bishop is back in the hot seat. However, the story is really that George Demos did very well, while Chris Cox and the massive number of Republican endorsements...poorly.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Randy Altschuler 9,515 45%
George Demos 6,341 30%
Chris Cox 5,077 24%
. 88% reporting

Rangel will continue to plunder? Still early...but he's got quite an early lead.

Democrats Votes Pct.
Charles Rangel incumbent 5,621 50%
Adam Clayton Powell 2,712 24%
Joyce S. Johnson 1,294 11%
Ruben Dario Vargas 911 8%
Jonathan B. Tasini 489 4%
Vincent Morgan 244 2%
26% reporting

Hoffman/Doheny? If I weren't getting conflicting reports from NCPR, I'd be writing Doheny the probable winner.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 9,666 53%
Douglas Hoffman 8,452 47%
. 62% reporting

10:59 pm EST: The boys from Jumping in Pools just sent me news that Paladino won Schoharie big!

Paladino won Schoharie County with 76.5% of the vote.

10:56 pm EST: Huge win for Hoffman. Hoffman claims Franklin County with a commanding lead.

Hoffman: 844

Doheny: 340

19 of 19 districts reporting.


10:52 pm EST: AP has Hoffman still up by 100, NY Times has Doheny with a commanding 1,000 vote lead.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 8,872 53%
Douglas Hoffman 7,795 47%
. 54% reporting

10:47 pm EST: This is funny. Watertown Daily Times has a report that Doheny sent out a mailer suggesting that he can't win a three-way race. Someone help me out, aren't you supposed to say "vote for me because I can win?"

10:44 pm EST: NY Times has NY-23 leaning for Doheny. However, Watertown Daily Times reports that there are 1,700 absentee ballots. We may not get a winner tonight. I believe with Hoffman as an army veteran, absentees would skew to favor him.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 4,698 53%
Douglas Hoffman 4,215 47%
. 34% reporting

10:37 pm EST: A dozen ethics violations? No big deal for NY-15...apparently. Rangel looks strong thanks to gerrymandering.

Democrats Votes Pct.
Charles Rangel incumbent 2,347 46%
Adam Clayton Powell 1,116 22%
Joyce S. Johnson 733 14%
Ruben Dario Vargas 462 9%
Jonathan B. Tasini 304 6%
Vincent Morgan 100 2%
Republicans Votes Pct.
Michel Faulkner uncontested
11% reporting

10:31 pm EST: WWNY has Hoffman with a small lead with 41% reporting.

Hoffman: 5,989

Doheny: 5,806

41 percent of NY-23 districts reporting.

10:27 pm EST: NCPR is reporting that Hoffman is off to a commanding lead on the East side of NY-23, though down on the West side, he's showing strong enough that Doheny is not taking any ground.

10:25 pm EST: Not much coming back in the way of NY-15 and Charles Rangel.

Democrats Votes Pct.
Charles Rangel incumbent 316 55%
Adam Clayton Powell 142 25%
Joyce S. Johnson 55 10%
Jonathan B. Tasini 28 5%
Ruben Dario Vargas 24 4%
Vincent Morgan 12 2%
Republicans Votes Pct.
Michel Faulkner uncontested
1% reporting

10:22 pm EST: Who will face Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in November? It's a close race so far, but right now Joe Dioguardi is in the lead. Polls showed him edging out David Malpass earlier.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Joseph DioGuardi 31,941 42%
David Malpass 28,766 38%
Bruce Blakeman 15,487 20%
12% reporting 12% reporting

10:13 pm EST: NCPR is reporting a 500 vote lead for Hoffman, because of a hugh Franklin County showing.

Here are the results so far.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Matthew Doheny 2,145 56%
Douglas Hoffman 1,657 44%
. 17% reporting

10:11 pm EST: Could be a rough night for Rick Lazio. Paladino is showing strong early.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Carl Paladino 53,629 71%
Rick Lazio 21,696 29%
. 9% reporting

10:08 pm EST: Looks like Randy Altschuler is holding tight to the lead in the three-way race for NY-1.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Randy Altschuler 1,531 46%
George Demos 1,037 31%
Chris Cox 745 22%
. 17% reporting

9:52 pm EST: Looks like Randy Altschuler is out to an early lead in NY-1 with 10% reporting.

Republicans Votes Pct.
Randy Altschuler 934 46%
George Demos 637 31%
Chris Cox 460 23%
. 10% reporting

9:49 pm EST: Looks like overall Doheny up +19, but lots of ballots still to count. Watertown is showing an East/West divide. Doheny taking the West side. Most reporting districts have been Western, not much coming in from the Hoffman side of NY-23 so far.

9:46 pm EST: Looks like the trend for NY-23 is in Doheny's favor. New results from Lewis County show Doheny with narrow lead.

Doheny: 570

Hoffman: 521

72 percent of precincts reporting.

9:44 pm EST: NY Times has Hoffman out to early lead, but only 3% reporting

Republicans Votes Pct.
Douglas Hoffman 275 57%
Matthew Doheny 207 43%
. 3% reporting

9:40 pm EST: NY Times has Paladino in an early lead at 58% to 42% with 1% reporing. Too early.

9:41 pm EST: Doheny wins big in Jefferson County.

(Canton 9:40 pm) From Jefferson County:

Doheny: 62 percent

Hoffman: 38 percent

100 percent of precincts reporting.

Via NCPR

9:36 pm EST: Hoffman wins Harrietstown and holds lead in Franklin County. While Doheny leading in St. Lawrence and Lewis Counties. Big ones to watch is Oswego and Jefferson. Via NPR

9:33 pm EST: Paladino takes Jefferson County 54% to Lazio 46%, 100% precincts reporting. Via NCPR

Obama to host DCCC luncheon in NY, but which congressional Democrats will actually show up?

By Sam Foster

President Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid are planning a fundraising event for all the Democrat congressional delegation on September 22^nd.  Nothing too surprising, in this election season, Democrats will need all the money they can get.  What will prove interesting is who will or will not show up?

The invitation is for the entire NY congressional delegation.  However, with a toxic President, Democrat leadership, and agenda, it should translate into at least a few no-shows.

Scott Murphy NY-20 and Dan Maffei NY-25 have both run ads professing their non-insider credentials, but will they turn down the President?

Right now, I'm only willing to wager that Mike Arcuri NY-24 will be a no, but I promise to contact all the campaigns and at least ask if they will be attending.  I'm doubtful of a response.

Video: If Rep. Dan Maffei Debates Ann Marie Buerkle it Will Probably Go Something Like This

I've been asking around, and as far as I know, no debates are scheduled between incumbent Dan Maffei (D) and Ann Marie Buerkle in the NY25 race. If they do debate it will probably go something like this.




Buerkle for Congress! Kick a progressive out of the House, donate to Ann Marie Buerkle!

(Video of the finger wag can be found here!)

Cross posted from The Lonely Conservative

"Capital is frozen"

by Bill Claydon

Cross posted at RedState.com

The Veterans for Gibson coalition held a barbecue event for area veterans at Gurtler Brothers VFW Post 420 in Saratoga Springs on September 12th. Colonel Chris Gibson (R) is challenging incumbent Scott Murphy (D) in New York's 20th Congressional District. Veterans from all wars starting with World War II through to the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were present and congratulated (by individual war) for their service.

The event was very well attended with the majority of picnic tables filled. Speakers thanked people for their enthusiasm and asked that they stay the course through election day.

Gibson spoke, reminding people of the need to live by a budget, citing growing up in a working family. His family lived within their means and did not spend money they didn't have. This is the model our Congress needs to adopt.

He talked further about the Constitution with its checks and balances to prevent any particular part of government from gaining too much power over the other or over the people. Gibson also stressed the need to eliminate some parts of the bureaucracy.

But the area where Gibson spoke the most about is the economy. As he noted, capital is frozen. Small businesses are holding onto what they have in terms of employees, but they cannot expand due to the uncertainty and terrible economic climate. They have no idea whether the tax cuts passed years ago will remain or whether they will be going up next year. With that in mind, businesses cannot possibly consider hiring new employees or investing in new equipment.

The "stimulus" was passed 20 months ago. (Note: Scott Murphy supported this "stimulus" but was not yet in Congress to actually vote on it.) We were recently at 9.5% unemployment but now are up to 9.6%. "That's the wrong direction," Gibson reminded people.

Citing 1931, when taxes went up after the 1929 stock market crash, Gibson pointed out that we need to learn from history. Raising taxes was the worst possible thing then and is the worst possible thing to do now in an attempt to "fix" the economy.

On health care, Gibson talked about wanting to repeal and REPLACE the current health care bill. Pointing out that the onerous regulations of the bill passed last spring are preventing businesses from hiring or expanding (note: self-proclaimed businessman Scott Murphy flip flopped and supported this bill), Gibson called for replacing it with something better. He wants to allow people to buy insurance over state lines, have more non-profit companies compete with for profit companies, introduce tort reform, and bring about other changes which will make health care affordable for people without the numerous problems in the multi-thousand page bill Congress pushed through earlier this year.

Noting that he has read the health care bill, he cannot see how this particular bill will help. He asked people to try and convince him otherwise. Nobody stepped forward.

Gibson also asked that we pay attention to what he is doing in Congress should he win. If he gets off track and supports bills which do not serve the people, he should be fired. It's refreshing to see a politician that is actually concerned about representing the people of the 20th district. Hopefully we'll have a representative like that come January 2011. It will be a welcome change from the status quo, in my opinion.

Michael Knowles responds to Congressman's Hall's former band mates from Orleans and their lawsuit against Young Voters for an Orlean's Reunion Tour

By Sam Foster

Yesterday, Congressman John Hall's former band, Orlean's, notified Michael Knowles, leader of Republican challenger Nan Hayworht's Young Voters for an Orlean's Reunion Tour that they intended to sue the group for trademark infringement and a whole list of cyber-lingo-sounding-torts like "cybersquatting."

I shot Michael Knowles and email to get his side of the story.

Sam Foster: Will you be complying with Orlean's demands to remove the site and turn over records?

Michael Knowles: These are some pretty desperate campaign tactics, though it unfortunately appears to be par for the course. The Young Voters for Nan Hayworth will not be intimidated by Congressman John Hall, campaign manager Patrick McGarrity, or any band member of Orleans. The First Amendment still applies to every citizen of the United States, even if they disagree with Congressman Hall.
 
Sam Foster: Orleans claims that your site is a subterfuge meant to disinform their fans, is that accurate?
 
Michael Knowles: The header of our website reads, "Get John Hall onstage and out of Congress." If Congressman Hall or his band mates think that is deceitful, I don't know how to convince them otherwise. I began to receive personal threats from Larry Hoppen even after I allowed him to place his own promotional material on our website, so I'm not sure that disinformation is really the reason for which the Young Voters for Nan Hayworth are being sued by John Hall's band mates. It just seems a little too political for me--no one in their right mind could possibly be deceived by our website.

Sam Foster: As you've previously told me, you are an Orleans fan.  Does the possible lawsuit change your opinion of the group?

Michael Knowles: Well, it is unfortunate that the band I love has decided to sue me. However, this lawsuit does not change the beautiful lyrics of Sails, the upbeat rhythms of Still The One, or the heart-wrenching sentiment of Dance With Me. I am and will remain a loyal fan of Orleans. Of course, I'd be a much bigger fan if they'd again include Congressman Hall in their lineup.

Sam Foster: If your site in fact, supports the band.  In what ways have you promoted the group over the last month of operation?
 
Michael Knowles: Our website provides several links to Orleans' official site and their Wikipedia entry, and our Blogroll links to their Twitter feed. When Larry Hoppen demanded that I post certain pictures and videos on the website, I complied within hours. We've linked to their news, events, and music. I really don't think there is anything more we could do to promote the group.

Scott Murphy concocts the least interesting campaign fraud allegation…EVER!

By Sam Foster

It was bound to happen; in a close race for NY's 20^th congressional district you have to expect some dirt to get flung at one point.  It looks like the blue side of the fence where Scott Murphy resides has come out with allegations that are certain to bore voters into the deepest of comas; The-Great-Gisbon-Accounting-Method-Fraud-Heard-'Round-NY20, which features a sleep inducing but enlightening education into the exciting world of accounting methods.

Get out the no-doze, as I explain…

It all started when a Chris Gibson aide had notified Maggie Habbermann at the Politico that Gibson had $504,000 cash-on-hand on July 9^th prior to the official filing.  No formal press release with official details was provided by the campaign, just a small addendum to the Politico's report.  However, this figure touted on July 9^th was not the same figure that appeared in Gibson's official public FEC filings.

Today, NYS Democrats and Scott Murphy hope to make that small addendum on Maggie's blog post the largest issue at stake for NY-20 voters this November, as opposed to say…Murphy's fundraiser with Obama administration official Rahm Emanuel to reward Murphy's flip-flop vote on Obamacare.  

The NYS Democratic Party issued the following statement:

This is about more than Chris Gibson puffing up his fundraising numbers to pretend he's a stronger candidate than he really is.  It's about whether voters can trust Gibson to tell the truth when it really matters.  Simply put, Gibson needs to show New Yorkers the money, starting with an account statement proving that he wasn't trying to pull a fast one on voters by lying about his campaign cash,

Chris Gibson's campaign argues that the figure in dispute was the campaign's bank balance as it stood on July 9^th as opposed to the official cash-on-hand filing with the FEC.  Both the Post Star and Times Union have reported the story, but is this really worth all the ink?

The heart of the issue is really a matter of two different methods of accounting.  What could be more tedious?  Gibson's campaign statement of $504,000 is a financial figure based on what we accountants call Cash Accounting; aka what's in your bank account this very moment.  We use it everyday.  In fact, if I asked you how much money you had, you'd probably state your cash holdings in a similar way.  

However, FEC filings need to be filed in what's known as Accrual Accounting.  The difference is essentially akin to your bank statement (cash accounting) versus your check register (accrual accounting).  Since reporters and politicians live in the world of FEC filings, it makes sense why a casual statement of "we have $504,000" would be assumed as accrual based accounting by the media, but is this assumption from the press really a scandal?  

A scandal would require that Chris Gibson, as the NYS Democrats put it, was "trying to pull a fast one on voters by lying about his campaign cash."  The accusation is quite laughable.  After all, Scott Murphy has nearly a three to one advantage in cash-on-hand.  What would the Gibson campaign benefit by intentionally misleading the press regarding their cash-on-hand figure by $50,000 when Murphy has $1.5 million to Gibson's roughly $500,000?  Even if it were possible to cajole the press into reporting that Gibson, and not Murphy, had a cash-on-hand advantage, why would his campaign bother doing it, given the fact that they had two better narratives; a) outraising Murphy in the 2^nd quarter and b) a stunning show of single donor support.  

The-Great-Gisbon-Accounting-Method-Fraud-Heard-'Round-NY20 is about as exciting as when Scott Murphy called his wife's cousin, his wife's sister.  These types of things happen.  How about moving on to something serious?

Update:

Chris Gibson's campaign just got caught red handed touting their own bank account on 7/9/10. Gibson's campaign turned itself in with the following statement:

$504 k was arrived at by the deposits of July 9th added to the bank balance. The apparent mistake was not realizing that the balance stated already included the deposit made that same day. This is a simple honest mistake, nothing more.
$ 447,375.51 balance July 9th
$ 56,871.61 deposit July 9th

...and The-Great-Gisbon-Accounting-Method-Fraud-Heard-'Round-NY20 comes to a conclusion...

Politico releases Republican roadmap to congressional control and Reed, Hayworth, Gibson, Hanna all made the list

By Sam Foster
Via Politico

Now that we are within 60 days until the November elections, we are about to get barraged with political prognostications.  The Politico is early to the race and they have an interesting layout for predicting Republican's prospects for taking control of congress.  They've created a three tier look at perspective house seats and many Upstate NY seats have made the list.

Here is how the tiered system works.

Via Politico

The first group includes the most imperiled Democratic seats — these are the "must-wins" — without which the GOP has no shot at House control. It's a roster filled with freshmen who benefited from Barack Obama's coattails, the most vulnerable veterans and Republican-friendly open seats where the retirement of a Democratic incumbent has created a prime pickup opportunity. If Republicans can't win most of these seats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will take the gavel again for the 112th Congress.

The second group of seats could be labeled the "majority makers" — a class of races that are within GOP reach but will require defeating well-prepared Democratic incumbents or winning on highly competitive terrain. If the GOP is winning most of these races on election night, a Republican majority will be close at hand. If not, Democrats still have a chance of waking up Nov. 3 with a slim margin in the House.

The third group could be described as the "landslide" class. For the most part, these districts are a tough climb for GOP candidates, because of either the strength of the Democratic incumbent or the partisan tilt of the seat. If the Democrats in this category start to fall on election night, a wave election is unfolding.

Must Win districts in NY:

NY-29

Democrats have not recovered from the resignation of Rep. Eric Massa and appear to have written off this GOP-leaning seat.

Majority Makers districts in NY:

NY-24
After winning a 2008 reelection squeaker in this Republican-leaning upstate New York seat, Rep. Michael Arcuri is considered one of the top GOP targets in New York—and faces a rematch with Richard Hanna, who nearly defeated him two years ago.

NY-23
Rep. Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat after Republicans fractured in a November 2009 special election, is vying for his first full term in a district that had been in GOP hands for roughly a century.

Republican Landslide districts in NY:

NY-19
Rep. John Hall has struggled to keep pace with the fundraising of Republican Nan Hay­worth and his voting record has been crit­icized as too liberal for a district with a slight GOP voter registration advantage.

NY-20
Rep. Scott Murphy's 2009 special-election win in one of New York's most Republican-friendly districts was a setback for the GOP. He's worked hard to win a full term in November but his flip from opposition to the health care reform plan to support could prove to be a problem.

If a Nan Hayworth and Chris Gibson win is what it takes for the GOP to have a landslide victory this year, than Democrats are in for a rough night on November 2^nd.  Both candidates look quite formidable this year and they'll be tough to beat.

The Politico also had the Ann Marie Buerkle/Dan Maffei race on what they call, "the bubble."  Meaning less competitive, but competitive still.

Endorsements may swing momentum to David Malpass for NY Senate

By Sam Foster

Polls have shown that Joe Dioguardi has a slim lead amongst his opponents for the opportunity to face Kirsten Gillibrand for this year's senate race.  However, David Malpass is quickly stacking up some key endorsements.  Last week it was the NY Post.  This week, former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani.

Giuliani said of Malpass:

"David Malpass is a serious thinker who will serve in the tradition of some of New York's most distinguished United States senators," said Mayor Giuliani.  "David is a life-long fiscal conservative who has stayed true to his principles of limited government, low taxes and strong economic growth throughout his entire career, dating back to his service to President Reagan. I'm thrilled to endorse him as the next U.S. Senator because I know he will be a leader that New Yorkers can be proud of."

 "I'm deeply honored to receive the endorsement of 'America's Mayor' Rudy Giuliani," said Mr. Malpass. "Mayor Giuliani has proved that individuals with backbone can make a real difference in public office and in that spirit I will serve in the United States Senate. Our nation is in dire need of principled conservatives who will stop the spending madness of the current Congress and bring fiscal sanity back to the federal government."

Hoffman Better Abide by Next Week's Decision

Posted by Mr. K 

Doug Hoffman's loss in November ate at the heart of Conservativeactivists across the Nation. It was the low-water mark in a off year election that saw Conservatism overrun two Obama backed candidacies with relative ease, Republicans win countless local elections across the Nation (especially the North East), and a strong pro-marriage victory in liberal Maine.

But that Hoffman loss still stings. What started out as an insurgent/revolt campaign against a Republican who seemed to support few Conservative ideals, turned into the "race of the year" for new and old media types, as the election shifted from Democrat Bill Owens vs. Republican Dede Scozzafava, to Democrat Bill Owens vs.Conservative Doug Hoffman.

Hoffman would end up losing by 3,500 votes, due largely to Scozzafava's name remaining on the ballot when she withdrew her candidacy the week of the vote, and her last-minute cut-throat endorsement of Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate who eventually became what we all expected him to be all along: A solid pro-Pelosi/Obama vote in Congress.

Why I am bringing this up again?

Because the Republican Nominee in New York's 23rd congressional district will be selected next Tuesday. And some individuals are concerned that if Doug Hoffman doesn't win the nomination, that he will once again run for Congress on the Conservative Party line, assuring a Bill Owens victory on election day. Something no-one wants.

If Doug Hoffman wins on Tuesday, he wins the Nomination. But if Matt Doheny (a Conservative portfolio manager) is the victor on Tuesday, he wins the Nomination. My hope is that Hoffman wins, but if he doesn't - I will not be able to support him. There is a time when men (and women) place themselves above others, for the wrong reason. And if Hoffman runs again on the Conservative Party line against the Republican Nominee, it would be for the wrong reason.

New York's 23rd congressional district - Defeat Owens, Support the Republican.

Originally posted at JiP

Scott Murphy can’t compete with Republican Challenger Chris Gibson on single donor support

By Sam Foster

It is instructive to watch Scott Murphy buy ad after ad about how he is closely tied to the district, yet it hasn't translated in donor support.

Scott Murphy's campaign shot from the hip last week when releasing preliminary fundraising numbers for the 3^rd quarter.  Murphy touted nearly $325k raised so far.  However, his press release was quite anemic as far as the details for his sources of funding.  Clearly, Murphy was looking to influence the media template with a message that his campaign had reclaimed momentum.

Turns out, Murphy's edge in fundraising is little more than politicking as his FEC report shows serious lack of voter support when compared to Republican challenger Chris Gibson's.  It turns out nearly half of this quarter's funding is from PACs, while Gibson nearly tripled the number of Scott Murphy's single donors by 937-322.

Via Chris Gibson's press release:

Gibson raised a total of $261,955.82 from across 949 donations, 937 of which were from individuals' contributions. Over 91% of all the individual contributions were from New York. The total amount raised by Gibson from individuals was $236,690.12 compared to Murphy's $183,645.79. The amount raised from New York individuals by Gibson was $206,815.90 compared to Murphy's $101,837.00.  Congressman Murphy raised 43% of his total contribution, $141,103.81, from PACs, political parties and sitting members of Congress campaign organizations.  That is compared to $25,265.70, or less than 10% of total contributions, collected by Gibson from like organizations across 12 donations.

 
It means little to have a large campaign war chest if the voters aren't on your side.  I'd take a large number of single donors over media marketing any day.