By Sam Foster
Via Washington Post
The Washington Post blog, The Fix, has been watching where the NRCC and DCCC have scheduled airtime for political ads this fall. These organizations often lay their chips down early in order to move their campaign money into place for the election season.
It appears the NRCC is planning on backing Chris Gibson's run for NY's 20th congressional district with ad airtime. The DCCC, on the other hand, has made no plans to aid the Murphy Campaign.
Aaron Blake writes:
Oftentimes, the districts that are left off of national media buys by the campaign committees are more instructive than the ones that are included.
The NRCC is reserving ad time in five districts the DCCC hasn't touched -- going after Adler and Reps. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Jim Marshall (D-Ga.), Ben Chandler (D-Ky.) and Scott Murphy (D-N.Y.).
Out of the other three, the most surprising is Marshall, who wasn't targeted until recently. A poll out today shows state Rep. Austin Scott (R) within five points and President Obama lost the Macon-area seat by 13 points in 2008.
The Washington Post also notes that the NRCC has yet to schedule airtime for any of the top "Young Gun" candidates like Nan Hayworth. However, they would be likely choices for a second round of funding. Major changes are frequently made, so this is purely an early prediction of where the organizations plan on spending.
One could speculate all day on the funding decisions. For example, DCCC's decision to forbear funding for Scott Murphy probably has to do with the sizeable war chest that he has already accumulated. However, one thing is certain: with a much smaller purse than the DCCC, the NRCC can only afford to spend on the races they feel will have the greatest effect. Clearly, the NRCC has confidence in Chris Gibson's ability to unseat incumbent Scott Murphy.
Additional writer's note: In NY, most of the Republican "Young Guns" such as Tom Reed, Richard Hanna, and Nan Hayworth have been able to raise more cash on hand than their opponents, which may explain the NRCC's funding decision.