Via Hot Air
H/T UPR readers
With a tsunami referendum for the Obama agenda headed to your district this fall, there will be a number of unforeseen Republican upsets. The esteemed Ed Morrissey at Hot Air hinted at a possible upset in NY's 22nd congressional district where Republican George Phillips is trying to oust long time Democrat shill, Maurice Hinchey.
As proof, Ed provided the results of a recent poll. The poll showed Hinchey well below 50% at 44% and George Phillips behind by only 7%. In this year's political climate, experts are saying any Democrat under 50% is a potential upset and this early in the election 7% is awfully close.
Here is an excerpt from Ed Morrissey's article:
It's been a while since we last checked on Maurice Hinchey, the Congressman from New York who thinks George Bush let Osama bin Laden get away on purpose to justify the invasion of Iraq and that Karl Rove planted the Rathergate memos. In fact, the last time we heard from Hinchey, it was because no one was hearing from Hinchey, as his campaign refused to discuss the incumbent's votes in the House or his positions on the issues. How has that strategy worked out? Not terribly well, according to a new internal poll shared with Republican donors in NY-22, which shows Hinchey at 44% — with a 96% name recognition.
George Phillips, the Republican challenger for the seat, comes close to the margin of error at 37%. The district is listed by Cook as a D+6, not nearly Democratic enough for Hinchey's lunacy. The survey sample has a D+3 split, which makes it a fairly good approximation of the district in normal cycles but may underestimate Republican enthusiasm in these midterms. Other notable results:
Generic ballot – GOP wins by 2, but with 32% undecided.
Phillips' name recognition is at 53%, much higher than an internal poll in March (26%)
Only 25% declared themselves likely to support someone already involved in Washington politics, while 46% said "less likely"
Please read the rest at Hot Air.