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Saturday, August 28, 2010

Real Clear Politics: Money not likely to save Dems Murphy, Maffei, and Owens

By Sam Foster
Via Real Clear Politics

NY is a mixed bag when it comes to congressional campaign money. There are a number of Republican candidates vying for blue seats that are out-raising incumbent Democrats. Tom Reed, Richard Hanna, and Nan Hayworth have all been able to sustain a cash advantage. What about Republican candidates who are well behind in fundraising?

There are skeptics out there and I've been one of them. However, there is a growing national consensus from political analysts that Democrat money advantage will not be a deciding factor in this year's election.

Jay Cost from Real Clear Politics writes:

Would these factors be sufficient to stop the Republicans from taking the House in a more evenly divided year? I'd say yes. I think the Democratic incumbency advantage is sufficient to absorb a modest Republican popular vote victory. I'd add that Republicans who do not raise enough money will not win elections, even in a cycle such as this.

But so far this year the Republicans have enjoyed a sizable and sustained lead in the generic ballot, something that has never happened in the history of the poll. Currently, the GOP lead is at 4.5%. If that holds through November, the Democratic money advantage will not be enough to alter the orientation of the electorate sufficiently: if the RCP average has the GOP up 5 points in the generic ballot the day before, the GOP should have around a 5 point advantage on Election Day.

Nor will Democratic money be sufficient to reorganize such a pro-Republican electorate in a way that enough Democrats survive. No party has held a House majority while losing the popular vote by 5 points since before the Civil War. With the "Solid South" - voting overwhelmingly Democratic with exceedingly low turnout - a thing of the past, such a feat is all but impossible. A $20 million cash advantage for the DCCC is not going to change that.

Just a little reminder to Democrat candidates like Dan Maffei, Bill Owens and Scott Murphy, who believe they are sitting safely behind what they think is an impenetrable fortress of cash; This year it is little more than paper.


Fenway_Nation said...

While Gibson may have more cash on hand thanks to the DNCC and his own personal fortune, I don't think it'll be enough to make the voters in NY-20 forget his 0bamacare and cap & trade votes....

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