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Tuesday, August 3, 2010

More bad news for Buerkle: Trailing in two polls

By Sam Foster
Via The Post-Standard

Buerkle may have clinched an endorsement from Sarah Palin, but her fundraising disappointed and now two polls show her trailing far behind Democrat incumbent Dan Maffei.

The Post-Standard reports:

Buerkle paid for a poll taken last week that shows Maffei leading by 9 percentage points, 46 to 37, with 17 percent undecided. Maffei paid for a poll at the end of June that showed the congressman leading by 19 percentage points, 54 to 35, with 11 percent of likely voters undecided.

Pollster John McLaughlin said Buerkle could win "with a well-funded and well-executed media campaign," suggesting the poll will likely be used for fundraising purposes.

In an interview Monday, Buerkle said she found the poll encouraging. "I think absolutely this race is winnable," she said. "It shows my message is resonating and our whole grass-roots effort is turning into a tremendous amount of support."

Buerkle noted that the McLaughlin poll found a statistical dead heat among respondents who have heard of both candidates, with 42 percent for Buerkle, 43 percent for Maffei, and 15 percent undecided. "The key to my success is meeting the voters," Buerkle said. "The more I can relate to people, the more support I get. I was pleased because it was the result of a lot of hard work."

It's too early to call it over, but Buerkle has one big hill to climb.


Contributor Lonely Conservative and an anonymous reader strongly disagree with my assessment. They are in good company, so does Jim Geraghty at NRO.

This was on my list of 99 potentially competitive seats, but I hadn’t considered Rep. Dan Maffei, New York Democrat, to be seriously vulnerable this cycle. But I think Republican (and Conservative and Independence line) challenger Ann Marie Buerkle is now demonstrating we have to keep an eye on this race.

I conceed! Under 50% certainly puts Dan Maffei in the hot seat!


The Lonely Conservative said...

I have a feeling Dan Maffei's poll was weighted in his favor. For Buerkle, who was virtually unknown a few months ago, to be within 9 (if we can trust the data) is a big deal, IMHO.

Anonymous said...

Dan is below 50%, and in my neck of the woods (Irondequoit) has zero name recognition. He voted 100% with Speaker Nancy on every vote that mattered. With Congress' job approval at 11%, the President's approval declining (41% in the latest USAToday/Gallup poll), I'd say that Mrs. Buerkle has a great shot at the upset, Mr. Maffei's ill-gotten campaign funds notwithstanding.

conservative generation said...

Thanks for commenting. I conceed to both your points and Jim Geraghty.

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