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Monday, August 16, 2010

NRO Poll: Gibson, Buerkle and Doheny in striking distance for an incumbent upset

By Sam Foster

It's about time for the Political Reports to start flipping some of the Upstate NY races to "Toss Up" status. A recent NRO poll shows three Republican challengers gaining ground in blue NY congressional districts.

Jim Geraghty reports:

New York 20: Despite challenger Chris Gibson having just 37 percent name recognition compared to Rep. Scott Murphy’s 91 percent name recognition, Murphy leads by a slim 45 to 40 percent margin.

New York 23: While challenger Matt Doheny has just 48 percent name recognition compared to Rep. Bill Owens’s 87 percent name recognition, Owens manages just a split of the vote with 41 percent to 39 percent for Doheny.

New York 25:
Despite challenger Ann Marie Buerkle having just 50 percent name recognition compared to Rep. Dan Maffei’s 90 percent name recognition, Maffei leads by a slim 44 to 41 percent margin.

All three Democrat incumbents are under 50%, which is a very dangerous place for Democrats in this election cycle. Also note the Democrat name recognition percentages. This means that the three incumbent Democrats will have little room to improve their favorability.


The Lonely Conservative said...

Thanks for the heads up. I just linked this.

Anonymous said...

This poll is actually bad news for republican challengers - it was a push poll done by American Actions Forum (that would be Norm Coleman, Jeb Bush, Tom Ridge, etc...) that could barely get there candidates to 40%. Doheny is going to lose big time in another split race. Murphy, who should be in trouble, is going to win by default because Gibson can't put a coherent sentence together. And Buerkle is just a horrible candidate with a horrible organization and no ideas who will get shredded when the campaign really begins.

conservative generation said...

Karen - thanks for the link

conservative generation said...

Anon - denial? that's a very original argument.

Tell me your big NY 23 argument isn't "it's going to be a three way" so that's an easy win.

NY Times has Gibson/Murphy as a toss up. You didn't mention your credentials, but Cook Political report has NY 20 as R+3 in their PVI.

As for Buerkle/Maffei, I think Buerkle has a long way to go, but if you haven't read any Dem under 50% is vunerable. That's not my opinion, but a NBC/WSJ poll.

Truth is, Democrats are about to get pummeled in November and you are little more than deluted if you don't think Republicans aren't retaking a significant number of NY races.

Anonymous said...

anonymous is a putz

jps4usa said...

I believe Doheny will lose to Doug Hoffman in the primary (Sept. 14), but the bigger question is does Matt back out gracefully and he throw his support toward Hoffman?

And yes, I do agree the Democrats are going to be taken to the woodshed and beaten badly. The voter frustration with Obama and his cohorts will have staying power right up thru Nov. 2nd. And with that gust of wind under their sails it will energize & uplift conservatives, republicans, and Tea Party members all the way to 2012.


Fenway_Nation said...

HAH! Dream on, anonymous #1...

Beside the NY Times classifying the NY-20 race as a 'toss-up', the Cook Report just re-classified it from 'Likely D' to 'Leaning D'- the lightest shade of blue one can get before the race is considered a toss-up. Frankly, I think the only reason the race isn't a toss-up is because of the personal wealth at Murphy's disposal for campaign funding...a 50% approval rating and 700-vote margin of victory in last year's special election is nothing to crow about.

Buerkle, who I thought could be the weakest candidate out of the three, has been closing the gap pretty handily with Dan Maffei according to pretty much ANY pollster....

conservative generation said...

jps4usa - Doheny has said publically that he will endorse the Republican primary winner. However, it is likely his name will still pop up on the Independence ballot line.

RP McMurphy said...

That steadily growing rumble that was way off in the distance in March is starting to get uncomfortably loud and strong as it approaches Scott Murphy's political fortunes. The distance continues to close, and the sphincters increasingly tighten at Murphy HQ.

They know what's coming - an M1A1 Abrams tank is bearing down relentlessly, and Colonel Chris Gibson is in command once more. By mid-October, this race will be rated Leans or Likely Republican, and by Election Day, Murphy's term as Congressman will be left in shreds as Gibson moves on to Washington for the next big battles.

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